Biden and Ohio

[perpetual_cynic]

Do you think that Biden will be able to garner more support in the industrial working-class areas of Northeastern Ohio, than Clinton did in 2016?

[perpetual_cynic]

Yes.

Which counties are most likely in the area to swing left? I believe Mahoning and Summit counties are potential targets.

[perpetual_cynic]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

[perpetual_cynic]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.

As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

[perpetual_cynic]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.

As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

[perpetual_cynic]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.

As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.

Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

[perpetual_cynic]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.

As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.

Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

Not too sure actually.

How do you think Trump will fare in Beaver and Erie Counties, in Pennsylvania?

[perpetual_cynic]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.

As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.

Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

Not too sure actually.

How do you think Trump will fare in Beaver and Erie Counties, in Pennsylvania?

50-50 for Erie really and he'll win Beaver.

I'm curious if Cuyahoga County could possibly swing any further to the left. It seems that Democrats have about maxed the vote there, given the demographics.

[perpetual_cynic]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.

As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.

Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

Not too sure actually.

How do you think Trump will fare in Beaver and Erie Counties, in Pennsylvania?

50-50 for Erie really and he'll win Beaver.

I'm curious if Cuyahoga County could possibly swing any further to the left. It seems that Democrats have about maxed the vote there, given the demographics.

[perpetual_cynic]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.

As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.

Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

Although it's hold, here is the Cuyahoga County precinct map from the state amendment to gay marriage:



Here is the race map of Cuyahoga County from the old DRA:



I made the map of the vote a little too long ago to remember the scale, but the darker green is more opposed to gay marriage, the darker red more supportive, and gray was close to 50/50. As you can see the black areas of Cleveland voted strongly in favor of the gay marriage ban. The main areas opposed are the socially liberal nodes in the eastern suburbs, gentrified areas around Downtown and the near west side, and to a lesser extent Lakewood.

In addition to the gay marriage ban vote, Cleveland has also had a few black state legislators who are more socially conservative, in particular Bill Patmon. John Barnes has also made a few votes that have diverged from the standard Democratic Party position on social issues.

While, Cuyahoga County is to the left of the state in pretty much every way, I wouldn't really call it a socially liberal metro area on the whole. It definitely has certain areas that are very socially liberal (looking at you Heights area) but almost every major city in the north does. The Democrats mainly win Cuyahoga County due to the black vote and residual strength among working class white voters.

I figured that Cleveland was less on the social liberal side of the Democratic Party. I have seen patterns in North Carolina of the same idea. The rural black areas voted against same-sex marriage, to a greater extent than the white rural areas.

[perpetual_cynic]

Even though I don’t have Ohio voting for the Democrats at the Presidential level until 2040 or 2044, I think that Joe Biden will improve on Hillary Clinton’s margin in certain areas of the state, which will be enough to make Donald Trump only carry Ohio by a 52-46 or 52-47 margin. Joe Biden probably gets around 80% of the vote in Cuyahoga County and in the mid-60s in Hamilton and Franklin Counties. On the other hand, Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

This aged surprisingly well.

Do you see Butler or Warren Counties continuing their trend leftward after this year? I think the Cincinnati Metro has been one of the metro areas to move to the left. Hamilton Co. seems pretty set and looks to at least maintain its Dem advantage, Delaware County will also be interesting to see.