Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[perpetual_cynic]

Does anyone think there's a chance of the Liberals or NDP picking up a seat or two in either Calgary or Edmonton?

[perpetual_cynic]

Does anyone think there's a chance of the Liberals or NDP picking up a seat or two in either Calgary or Edmonton?

Yes, there is, but... I don't entirely trust polls showing Conservatives at <50% in Alberta; still, if they're lucky, I think Liberals could gain one or more of Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Mill Woods, Calgary Centre, Calgary Skyview and maybe Calgary Confederation or Calgary Forest Lawn. The only obvious NDP target is Edmonton Griesbach. But if you want riding by riding predictions in Canada, at the start of a campaign, in cities that may or may not swing away from a previously dominant party, you might as well toss a coin  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Agreed, only way Tories fall below 50% is if Maverick Party or PPC get in double digits, then it is certainly possible.  Rural Alberta will go over 70% right wing likely over 80%, but possible Maverick or PPC get in double digits in several ridings there as many feel O'Toole not right wing enough.

In Calgary and Edmonton different story.  Split on right non-issue but Liberals and NDP do have a few seats they could flip.  I think for Liberals 2-4 seats most likely, NDP 1-2 seats.  Kenney's unpopularity hurting Tories a fair bit.  At same time no way right wing vote in Alberta falls below 50%.  Below 60%, I think its quite likely and certainly would be 69% like last time, but I still think in end combined right wing vote will be in 50s in Alberta.  However, this will probably be first election where Tories get higher percentage in Saskatchewan over Alberta.

338canada puts the Tories at 52% right now in Alberta. I also wonder about the Liberals chances of taking back Regina-Wascana, it's rated as leaning Conservative right now. I also think Calgary Centre is definitely the most likely to be pulled from the Cons in Calgary. I also wonder how much of an effect Kenney will have with his 'coat tails' so to speak, with the NDP polling ahead of the UCP in ALB at the provincial level.

[perpetual_cynic]

I don't see Regina-Wascana going Liberal.  It was not a Liberal riding, it was a Ralph Goodale riding.  If Tories do lose it which is possible, it will be to NDP not Liberals.  Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only Saskatchewan riding Liberals might have a shot in as NDP MLA running and large aboriginal population.

For Alberta, I think Liberals likely win Edmonton Centre.  Edmonton-Mill Woods possible if things go well.  Calgary-Skyview is by far their best chance in Calgary.  Calgary Centre and Calgary-Confederation possible but long shots.  Yes Kenney will hurt Tories, but at same time Notley is a lot more popular than Trudeau is in Alberta so you will get some who plug their noses and vote Tory federally but NDP provincially for that reason.

338Canada has rated the riding a lean CPC riding, with the Conservatives sitting at 40%, the Liberals at 34% and the NDP at a distanct third at 17%. It also rated Calgary Centre as the only riding in Calgary that is a tossup. Skyview and Confederation are rated as lean CPC. In Edmonton, Centre and Mill Woods are rated tossup and Strathcona is likely NDP.

[perpetual_cynic]

I don't see Regina-Wascana going Liberal.  It was not a Liberal riding, it was a Ralph Goodale riding.  If Tories do lose it which is possible, it will be to NDP not Liberals.  Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only Saskatchewan riding Liberals might have a shot in as NDP MLA running and large aboriginal population.

For Alberta, I think Liberals likely win Edmonton Centre.  Edmonton-Mill Woods possible if things go well.  Calgary-Skyview is by far their best chance in Calgary.  Calgary Centre and Calgary-Confederation possible but long shots.  Yes Kenney will hurt Tories, but at same time Notley is a lot more popular than Trudeau is in Alberta so you will get some who plug their noses and vote Tory federally but NDP provincially for that reason.

338Canada has rated the riding a lean CPC riding, with the Conservatives sitting at 40%, the Liberals at 34% and the NDP at a distanct third at 17%. It also rated Calgary Centre as the only riding in Calgary that is a tossup. Skyview and Confederation are rated as lean CPC. In Edmonton, Centre and Mill Woods are rated tossup and Strathcona is likely NDP.

I think Regina-Wascana will likely see Liberals in third as Ralph Goodale got lots of personal votes.  Just look at 2011 when he won riding, but no other LPC candidate got over 9% in rest of province so it was more a Ralph Goodale riding than Liberal one.  In fact I think splits will probably help CPC there, but whichever party comes in second has better odds next time.

Well, the only thing is that even if the Liberals get the lowest end of the margin of error from 338Canada, and the NDP the highest, they will still be in third. 338Canada has a nearly 97% accuracy rate in terms of being around the margin of error.

[perpetual_cynic]

I don't see Regina-Wascana going Liberal.  It was not a Liberal riding, it was a Ralph Goodale riding.  If Tories do lose it which is possible, it will be to NDP not Liberals.  Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only Saskatchewan riding Liberals might have a shot in as NDP MLA running and large aboriginal population.

For Alberta, I think Liberals likely win Edmonton Centre.  Edmonton-Mill Woods possible if things go well.  Calgary-Skyview is by far their best chance in Calgary.  Calgary Centre and Calgary-Confederation possible but long shots.  Yes Kenney will hurt Tories, but at same time Notley is a lot more popular than Trudeau is in Alberta so you will get some who plug their noses and vote Tory federally but NDP provincially for that reason.

338Canada has rated the riding a lean CPC riding, with the Conservatives sitting at 40%, the Liberals at 34% and the NDP at a distanct third at 17%. It also rated Calgary Centre as the only riding in Calgary that is a tossup. Skyview and Confederation are rated as lean CPC. In Edmonton, Centre and Mill Woods are rated tossup and Strathcona is likely NDP.

I think Regina-Wascana will likely see Liberals in third as Ralph Goodale got lots of personal votes.  Just look at 2011 when he won riding, but no other LPC candidate got over 9% in rest of province so it was more a Ralph Goodale riding than Liberal one.  In fact I think splits will probably help CPC there, but whichever party comes in second has better odds next time.

Well, the only thing is that even if the Liberals get the lowest end of the margin of error from 338Canada, and the NDP the highest, they will still be in third. 338Canada has a nearly 97% accuracy rate in terms of being around the margin of error.

Generally true, but you cannot ignore local candidate factors which no model will pick up.  2011 proves that since Regina-Wascana is maybe slightly more Liberal than other SK ridings, but not so much so you get 40%, but not above 9% anywhere else.  That shows it was a local candidate.  Model also would mess up in Vancouver-Granville where JWR won as independent but not running again.  Most ridings local candidates only make a minor difference, but you do have a handful where they make massive differences.

But they correctly predicted that JWB would win Vancouver-Granville in 2019 and was only off by 0.5% and now rate it as a lean Liberal riding, as it was before 2019.