How does Trump do in Texas?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think people overestimate how much Hispanics actually swing Texas statewide - Texas Hispanics are a very low turnout group so even if they make up ~40% of the population, they likely don't even constitute as 30% of the TX electorate in a normal cycle - heck maybe not even 25%.

This is why the very aggressive Hispanic swings we saw in Houston and RGV were pretty easily muted by other shifts. If the battle is left-shifting suburbs vs Hispanics, left-shifting suburbs will always win.

I think Trump carries TX by ~4% right now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Demographics alone suggest a bare Trump win in 2024. 2-3% margin. The Mexican-American electorate is growing, and Trump is gaining little. Millions of people leaning Democratic are moving into Texas, which is increasingly becoming a microcosm of America.

No they aren’t

Demographics alone do; if you assume no one is changing their vote from 2020 and turnout dynamics stay the same, the state would narrow a bit just from Dem and Dem-shifting communities outgrowing GOP communities.

However, in practice, there will be vote flippers and turnout dynamics will change - both factors I think will slightly benefit Trump relative to 2020 in Texas.