Outside NC redistricting, do any seats flip D-->R?

[ProgressiveModerate]

At face value this may seem statistically unlikely, but the reverse almost happened in 2020 with only one seat flipping R-->D for non-redistricting reasons; GA-07, a suburban Atlanta seat that is zooming left. The other 2 D flips were ironically from NC redistricting. Republicans were able to hold Clinton won seats many expected to flip like CA-25 and TX-23.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yes.

Four categories to watch:
Trump seats (AK-AL, ME-02, OH-09, PA-08, WA-03)
Competitive open seats (CA-47, MD-06, MI-07, MI-08, VA-07)
Seats that were close in 2022 (CO-08, CT-05, NM-02, NY-18, PA-07)
Working-class seats (IN-01, OH-13, all three seats in NV)

Democrats are individually favored in almost all of these districts, but of these 20, I think at least one will end up flipping. My hot take is that CA-47 is the most vulnerable.

This is fair; just by pure numbers Democrats should lose *something*.

However, everything in the first category are Democrats with history of big overperformances and almost everything else is a Biden seat, often seat Biden carried by quite a bit and will likely carry again in 2024. In my opinion, seats like VA-07 and MD-06 are not tossups; Biden already carried both seats by ~10% in 2020 and generally these seats have been getting bluer. There's also no reason to expect some sort of localized red wave in the DC metro region.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think 2006 is the only election cycle in this century where only one party flipped seats in the House (the Democrats).  It's very rare.  Even in 2010, Democrats flipped at least one (although it was one that was very blue anyway).

edit:

2008: Republicans flipped FL 16 (Tom Rooney), KS 2 (Lynn Jenkins), LA 2 (Joseph Cao), LA 6 (Bill Cassidy), TX 22 (Pete Olson).

2010: Democrats flipped DE (John Carney), HI 1 (Colleen Hanabusa), LA 2 (Cedric Richmond)

2014: Democrats flipped CA 31 (Pete Aguilar), FL 2 (Gwen Graham), NE 2 (Brad Ashford)

2018: Republicans flipped MN 1 (Jim Hagedorn), and MN 8 (Pete Stauber)

Most of these were due to re-alignment catching up (DE-AL, LA-06, HI-01, CA-31, MN-08, TX-22) or flipping back flukish wins from the previous cycle (LA-02).

In this case, re-alignment has pretty much caught up on a national scale where we don't have Dems holding Trump + 20 seats or vise-versa, and there were no crazy LA-02 level flukes in 2022 - yes seats like WA-03 was an upset but that's still only a Trump + 4 seat where MGP doesn't need that much crossover support to win again.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At face value this may seem statistically unlikely, but the reverse almost happened in 2020 with only one seat flipping R-->D for non-redistricting reasons; GA-07, a suburban Atlanta seat that is zooming left. The other 2 D flips were ironically from NC redistricting. Republicans were able to hold Clinton won seats many expected to flip like CA-25 and TX-23.

2018 was a blue wave and D was over stretched. 2022 was not.

There are 10 seats where R has at least 20% to flip. The probability of none of them flipping is (0.^10*(0.9)^10=0.037.

The issue is that those are not completely independent events. If Dems hold PA-07 for instance, their chances in nearby PA-08 are also probably pretty good.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At face value this may seem statistically unlikely, but the reverse almost happened in 2020 with only one seat flipping R-->D for non-redistricting reasons; GA-07, a suburban Atlanta seat that is zooming left. The other 2 D flips were ironically from NC redistricting. Republicans were able to hold Clinton won seats many expected to flip like CA-25 and TX-23.

2018 was a blue wave and D was over stretched. 2022 was not.

There are 10 seats where R has at least 20% to flip. The probability of none of them flipping is (0.^10*(0.9)^10=0.037.

The issue is that those are not completely independent events. If Dems hold PA-07 for instance, their chances in nearby PA-08 are also probably pretty good.

I already considered this by using probabilities like 20% and 10%. Otherwise seats like CA47 and MI07 have about 40% chance to flip.

That's still not how probability works; even if you raise the base percentage, you're still treating them as independent events.

One way to think about it is if you give Biden a healthy 60% chance of winning each of the main swing states individually (AZ, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI), by your logic the chance he wins all 6 again is only 5% which is way too low. Likewise for Trump.