House members that had close races in 2022 but are safer this year

[ProgressiveModerate]

Safer doesn't necessary mean safe. For instance, I think Caraveo in CO-08 is favored to win by more than last time, but could still see that seat going R in the right circumstances.

Also Steele is def not safer. She didn't win by much in 2022 when Dems didn't really take that race seriously, CA-45 is probably won by Biden at the end of the day. Alos the Dem is Vietnamese which is huge in CA-45.

[ProgressiveModerate]

MT01, WI03, and VA02 come to mind.

Disagree. In MT-01 and WI-03 2022 exposed a sort of unexpected weakness for Rs in these seats; it's probable in 2024 the national environment for House will be better for Dems and they actually spend in these seats.

As for Kiggans, I see the argument she's favored, but certainly not a heavy favorite; VA-02 is honestly probably pretty close to the tipping point seat and I'd say Biden is favored to carry it at the federal level; expect a lot of Dem investment here.