ProgressiveModerate
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Posts: 14,022
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« on: April 01, 2024, 08:29:00 PM » |
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« edited: April 01, 2024, 11:56:38 PM by ProgressiveModerate »
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Is there any outside chance this seat is competitive? Went from Trump + 16.5 to Trump + 7.8, and in 2022 Schmitt only barely carried the seat by 3%. There's a small but realistic chance Biden carries the seat Presidentially in 2024, especially given nearly 50% of the population in the seat has college. However, there def seems to be some downballot lag at play here; Wagner carried the seat by double-digits in 2022. Still, relative to her past performances in a less favorable district, that win is underwhelming, and some of that crossover support could erode if Dems invest seriously here
My rating would probably be likely R.
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