ProgressiveModerate
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« on: November 25, 2023, 02:02:33 AM » |
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Assuming "normal" circumstances nationally:
At the state level, it might take another decade or two of anger against Democratic politicians in the state as the cost of living continues to rise to astronomical levels and quality of life decreases for most. Republicans capitalize on this and use it to connect with lower-income non-white voters who may traditionally vote D on the federal level. Republicans see their largest gains in working class parts of metro LA, and the Central Valley, and are narrowly able to flip the Governorship.
This of course assumes the problems just get worse and there is no light at the end of the tunnel, but depopulation as well as some recent housing bills could help make things better.
CA flipping federally would require a huge re-alignment. My guess would be the GOP continues to improve and maybe even outright win significant swaths of Asian and Hispanics voters, while lowering margins with Black voters. Race becomes way less of a determinant factor in how people vote in favor of things like education and culture. Republicans successfully appeal to a lot of the self-absorbed culture in many parts of CA. Combined with large improvements with non-white voters they are able to flip the state.
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