This has been my take for a while, and I would actually say I see FL as easier than MT/OH. I think people are really overestimating several things:
1. The degree to which FL will swing right (no it likely won't become R+10 overnight with some actual semblance of D effort in the state)
2. The degree to which incumbency matters (Sure it matters but not enough that an R+15 state is going to be a way easier lift than an R+3 one), on a related note people seem to be assuming that these incumbents will remain very popular during the campaign, and this may be true, but it may not be, we need to see how effective the campaigns are.
3. The degree to which OH/MT will swing left (So I have seen a lot of takes, I don't know if they are or aren't ironic that OH/MT will swing sizably left because of Dobbs. I'm skeptical of this for a number of reasons, the first is that these people voted for Trump in 2016 knowing that the Supreme Court was on the line, maybe you can say nobody truly believed it would happen, maybe that is true, but it doesn't explain it fully. To elaborate on the previous point, OH is having a referendum on the issue in 2023, which means it will likely take on at least somewhat reduced salience there. MT has been a Republican state for a long-time, so I don't really buy that there is going to be a big Democratic swing there in backlash to what has been a Republican Party policy for almost 3 decades now.)
Ye I agree, though it’s not impossible FL votes to the right of OH in 2024 Presidentially.
I think the issue with FL is it’s just such an expensive state to invest in and Dems have been burned so many times before, convincing them it’s a good investment will be hard. It’s also no longer really necessary or even helpful towards Dems winning the EC. The thing is if Ds have a good candidate in FL and Scott ends up being unlikeable, it’s def possible that even if Biden loses FL by a simillar margin to last time, Ds could still sneak a win in the Senate race.
Ohio while it voted redder in 2020 has a bit less of brutal trends for Dems (they suffered the vast majority of their losses already in 2016) and it’s just less expensive. Plus Ryan performed decent in 2022; 2024 is probably going to be a more D favorable environment and black turnout won’t be as abysmal in a Pres cycle.