TN-SEN 2024 megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tennessee is the largest deep red state in the country. Texas is still pretty Republican, but it's not as red as it once was, Ohio is still trending R, Florida might be getting there we will have to wait and see. But Trump won Tennessee by +23 and it was the state to yield him his largest net win margin of raw votes. Tennessee's size actually pretty underrated, it has a similar population to Arizona, Massachusetts, and Indiana. Regardless, Blackburn is safe and will win by a large margin exceeding her 2018 win.

Tennessee rurals in the eastern part of the state are extremely dense and extremely red. Without the Appalachian part of the state, TN would actually be competitive, but those rurals net the GOP a ton of votes Nasheville and Memphis could never overcome.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Best case for this is this is an Epsy situation where the Dem runs a solid campaign sort of under the radar and notably outruns Biden (though certainly not by enough to win).

Worst case is this becomes like KY-Sen 2020 and sinks tons of money into a non-competitive race and nationalizing it just for the Dem to outperform Biden by like 1 point.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This continues a trend in recent years of the TNDP supporting more ideologically progressive candidates than it had in the past.  It tried to go to the (relative) center in 2018, but, since then, it's gone hard left.

Probably a consequence of their base becoming almost exclusively urban, and culturally somewhat progressive Nashville becoming more dominant than Memphis.