Will Biden collapse in the rural Black Belt?

[ProgressiveModerate]

A lot of the "black belt" communities had pretty hard rightwards lurches in 2022; it kept GA-Sen pretty close, and killed any shot Beasley could've had in NC (Budd almost won NC-01!). Some argue this shift was just because of low black turnout that won't repeat itself in a Pres cycle. However, others argue that these rural black communities are culturally much more conservative and will shift right if race continues to become less extreme of a dividing line in US politics (simillar to what we saw in rural RGV in 2020).

Honestly in hindsight, I find it somewhat surprising that the 2016-2020 Pres swing in rural black belt was basically neutral overall.

The 2 swing states this would impact the most are Georgia and North Carolina, though a Dem collapse in the rural Black Belt could be overcome with continued gain in urban areas.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Probably, but in Georgia those counties are so sparsely populated and are being offset by swings left in places like Dougherty, Muskogee, Richmond, Columbia, Bibb, and Houston, to say nothing of metro Atlanta.

In North Carolina it could matter more in terms of Trump keeping it in his column. We’ll see.

Ye, fair point. I think the black belt tends to be most powerful in NC, SC, and MS because there are a decent number of depopulating small black-belt towns scattered about, whereas GA cities like Augusta and Columbus are substaintial enough, growing, and have been shifting left.