Will Biden collapse in the rural Black Belt?

[ProgressiveModerate]

A lot of the "black belt" communities had pretty hard rightwards lurches in 2022; it kept GA-Sen pretty close, and killed any shot Beasley could've had in NC (Budd almost won NC-01!). Some argue this shift was just because of low black turnout that won't repeat itself in a Pres cycle. However, others argue that these rural black communities are culturally much more conservative and will shift right if race continues to become less extreme of a dividing line in US politics (simillar to what we saw in rural RGV in 2020).

Honestly in hindsight, I find it somewhat surprising that the 2016-2020 Pres swing in rural black belt was basically neutral overall.

The 2 swing states this would impact the most are Georgia and North Carolina, though a Dem collapse in the rural Black Belt could be overcome with continued gain in urban areas.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Probably, most people already view Jasper county SC as a near-certain flip for the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No it's a Prez race not a midterm which means higher Turnout Biden was Veep that helped Obama win in 2008/12

[SnowLabrador]

He'll collapse in a lot of places.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He'll collapse in a lot of places.

Yeah and the RS were supposed to have a red wave not a blimp in 22 and that never happened, stop downing Biden

[Ragnaroni]

No it's a Prez race not a midterm which means higher Turnout Biden was Veep that helped Obama win in 2008/12

Obama won 2008 and 2012. Biden wasn't much of a factor...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No it's a Prez race not a midterm which means higher Turnout Biden was Veep that helped Obama win in 2008/12

Obama won 2008 and 2012. Biden wasn't much of a factor...

Yeah and he campaign for Kslay Hagen do you honestly believe that no blue wave have materialized yet but he still have beaten RS 20/22 that's why Clyburn and Ds aren't dumping Biden for Harris despite Docugate , Clyburn and Harrison whom are CO Chairs of the DNC said Biden is the only one that could beat Trump because Hillary and Kaine couldn't do it in 2016 and Tim Kaine campaigned his heart out for Hillary in 2016 and still lost in 2028 the sounds of it RFK Jr not Harris probably is our best bet he is very much interested in running RFK Jr and Shapiro ticket would be unbeatable

[Spectator]

Probably, but in Georgia those counties are so sparsely populated and are being offset by swings left in places like Dougherty, Muskogee, Richmond, Columbia, Bibb, and Houston, to say nothing of metro Atlanta.

In North Carolina it could matter more in terms of Trump keeping it in his column. We’ll see.

[Ragnaroni]

No it's a Prez race not a midterm which means higher Turnout Biden was Veep that helped Obama win in 2008/12

Obama won 2008 and 2012. Biden wasn't much of a factor...

Yeah and he campaign for Kslay Hagen do you honestly believe that no blue wave have materialized yet but he still have beaten RS 20/22 that's why Clyburn and Ds aren't dumping Biden for Harris despite Docugate , Clyburn and Harrison whom are CO Chairs of the DNC said Biden is the only one that could beat Trump because Hillary and Kaine couldn't do it in 2016 and Tim Kaine campaigned his heart out for Hillary in 2016 and still lost in 2028 the sounds of it RFK Jr not Harris probably is our best bet he is very much interested in running RFK Jr and Shapiro ticket would be unbeatable

2020 was a really close election, 2022 was a weaksauce run for the GOP. Docugate isn't even relevant anymore you know that right?

Many people knew that Biden was the Dems best bet to win the election, CO Chairs included.

You underestimate how hated Hillary was. She was NOT popular with large parts of America. Kaine was a wet wipe, he doesn't have any broad appeal outside of VA and maybe NC. His campaigning probably didn't help too much and "out of his heart" dude wanted to win the race cause then he'd be the Veep....

We are currently 2023, no one's lost 2028 for another 5 years. Something something Kennedys never living long enough to do anything...

2028 will be either Harris or Newsom (oh dear Lord, please have mercy on us).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama had a chance to pick Tim Kaine, Warner and Evan Bayh and he chose not to, he chose Biden there is one flaw in your argument about 2008/12 Trump brought Hunter Biden Laptop, Collins and Tillis benefited from Tara Reade pre 2020 Obama said he didn't know about Tara Reade, why do you think Biden let Clarence Thomas thru onto the floor of the Senate eventhough the Ds had the votes and he was Chair of the Judicial Committee he sexual harassed women and Biden being a segregationist wasn't even brought out in 2008/12 do you think if all these issues played out prior to 2020 Romney or McCain especially Palin would have used it against Biden , Hunter came post 2014 and of course Docugate isn't an issue because J6 is more important that Hunter Biden he didn't hurt anyone physictally he stole money

We have the 303 map it's about wave insurance white Females split 50/50 even with Hillary instead of 55/45 like in blue states allowing RS to win in red states because of Hunter Biden, blue states care about Tax cuts for rich, that's why MI, PA, IL, CA, NV and NY now have super majority D state legislature and WI and AZ have D Govs and GA has 2 D S like VA does and red states have R state legislature


RFK Jr said he is interested in running he didn't say he was definitely running but he can definitely take blk votes away from Harris

[Tekken_Guy]

Probably, but in Georgia those counties are so sparsely populated and are being offset by swings left in places like Dougherty, Muskogee, Richmond, Columbia, Bibb, and Houston, to say nothing of metro Atlanta.

In North Carolina it could matter more in terms of Trump keeping it in his column. We’ll see.

Trump isn’t a lock to be the nominee yet. DeSantis is still in the race. Biden’s biggest issue vs. DeSantis is reversion in the suburbs rather than collapse in the black belt.

[Spectator]

Probably, but in Georgia those counties are so sparsely populated and are being offset by swings left in places like Dougherty, Muskogee, Richmond, Columbia, Bibb, and Houston, to say nothing of metro Atlanta.

In North Carolina it could matter more in terms of Trump keeping it in his column. We’ll see.

Trump isn’t a lock to be the nominee yet. DeSantis is still in the race. Biden’s biggest issue vs. DeSantis is reversion in the suburbs rather than collapse in the black belt.

Meanwhile in the real world

[ProgressiveModerate]

Probably, but in Georgia those counties are so sparsely populated and are being offset by swings left in places like Dougherty, Muskogee, Richmond, Columbia, Bibb, and Houston, to say nothing of metro Atlanta.

In North Carolina it could matter more in terms of Trump keeping it in his column. We’ll see.

Ye, fair point. I think the black belt tends to be most powerful in NC, SC, and MS because there are a decent number of depopulating small black-belt towns scattered about, whereas GA cities like Augusta and Columbus are substaintial enough, growing, and have been shifting left.

[The Mikado]

A lot of the "black belt" communities had pretty hard rightwards lurches in 2022; it kept GA-Sen pretty close, and killed any shot Beasley could've had in NC (Budd almost won NC-01!). Some argue this shift was just because of low black turnout that won't repeat itself in a Pres cycle. However, others argue that these rural black communities are culturally much more conservative and will shift right if race continues to become less extreme of a dividing line in US politics (simillar to what we saw in rural RGV in 2020).

Honestly in hindsight, I find it somewhat surprising that the 2016-2020 Pres swing in rural black belt was basically neutral overall.

The 2 swing states this would impact the most are Georgia and North Carolina, though a Dem collapse in the rural Black Belt could be overcome with continued gain in urban areas.

I doubt he'll suffer a major margin decline, though it is worth pointing out that that region is bleeding people at a high rate so he might go down in vote total there regardless of margin.

[jojoju1998]

No it's a Prez race not a midterm which means higher Turnout Biden was Veep that helped Obama win in 2008/12

Obama won 2008 and 2012. Biden wasn't much of a factor...

Yeah and he campaign for Kslay Hagen do you honestly believe that no blue wave have materialized yet but he still have beaten RS 20/22 that's why Clyburn and Ds aren't dumping Biden for Harris despite Docugate , Clyburn and Harrison whom are CO Chairs of the DNC said Biden is the only one that could beat Trump because Hillary and Kaine couldn't do it in 2016 and Tim Kaine campaigned his heart out for Hillary in 2016 and still lost in 2028 the sounds of it RFK Jr not Harris probably is our best bet he is very much interested in running RFK Jr and Shapiro ticket would be unbeatable

2020 was a really close election, 2022 was a weaksauce run for the GOP. Docugate isn't even relevant anymore you know that right?

Many people knew that Biden was the Dems best bet to win the election, CO Chairs included.

You underestimate how hated Hillary was. She was NOT popular with large parts of America. Kaine was a wet wipe, he doesn't have any broad appeal outside of VA and maybe NC. His campaigning probably didn't help too much and "out of his heart" dude wanted to win the race cause then he'd be the Veep....

We are currently 2023, no one's lost 2028 for another 5 years. Something something Kennedys never living long enough to do anything...

2028 will be either Harris or Newsom (oh dear Lord, please have mercy on us).

Gretchen Whitmer, Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Tim Walz, Jared Polis, Josh Shaprio ( if he does well in 2026), are not contenders ?

[Хahar 🤔]

A lot of the "black belt" communities had pretty hard rightwards lurches in 2022; it kept GA-Sen pretty close, and killed any shot Beasley could've had in NC (Budd almost won NC-01!). Some argue this shift was just because of low black turnout that won't repeat itself in a Pres cycle. However, others argue that these rural black communities are culturally much more conservative and will shift right if race continues to become less extreme of a dividing line in US politics (simillar to what we saw in rural RGV in 2020).

Honestly in hindsight, I find it somewhat surprising that the 2016-2020 Pres swing in rural black belt was basically neutral overall.

The 2 swing states this would impact the most are Georgia and North Carolina, though a Dem collapse in the rural Black Belt could be overcome with continued gain in urban areas.

I doubt he'll suffer a major margin decline, though it is worth pointing out that that region is bleeding people at a high rate so he might go down in vote total there regardless of margin.

Yes. It's possible (and, I would say, even probable) that the region will swing toward Republicans as a whole, but that is because it is becoming whiter, which in turn is because black residents are leaving the area faster than white residents are.

I guess because it's boring that non-white voters vote so overwhelmingly Democratic, people are always looking for reasons that they're going to vote Republican. Sixteen years ago when I joined this forum people were wishcasting Asians swinging Republican any day now and we're still waiting on that. Both blue avatars and red avatars do this, which suggests to me that it's not about hopes of partisan gain but rather about white people wishing that the voting patterns of non-whites were more interesting. This is why people were so excited to see the Rio Grande Valley last year. This is why here we see anticipation of a Democratic "collapse" among rural black voters based on nothing in particular.