ProgressiveModerate
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Posts: 14,054
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« on: March 26, 2023, 07:56:34 PM » |
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If one looks at Montgomery County on DRA, the denser parts of the County have actually gotten a lot closer in recent cycles, with many precincts being under Trump + 30 or even Trump + 20 in 2020 Pres.
The suburbs may seem decently diverse at face value, but in practice, the voting population is extremely white, and all racial groups generally tend to be more Conservative in southern suburbs than in northern ones.
Then as others have said, much of Montgomery County is relatively dense exurbs and rurals, that just haven't gotten any minority spillover or cultural spillover from Houston yet.
Greater Houston tends to be pretty conservative because of the oil industry and stuff, and there are a ton of relatively well off majority white suburbs that net the GOP a ton of votes; in Harris County you have places like Kingwood and Cypress keeping D margins down to D + 10.
If the GOP wants to hold Texas, I think these are the most important communities they need to try and hold down. In many, growth has actually outrun topline leftwards swings meaning GOP vote nets have increased, and for the GOP to hold TX long term they need to keep growth above leftward swings, which becomes harder as places narrow to 65-35 and 60-40.
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