ProgressiveModerate
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« on: December 02, 2022, 09:27:56 PM » |
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I think IA can't really be fully compared to Missouri. The urban-rural divide is still a lot less extreme. However, it has largely been the rural areas in the eastern part of the state that used to vote outright D and now vote outright R which have really pushed the state right.
The big fear for IA Dems is that there's still a lot further than can full in many rural parts of the state; it's still pretty unusual for low college ed white rural areas far away from any major cities outside the northeast to only be voting 60-40 R.
Dems can pretty effectively block the GOP from getting a supermajority though on urban/suburban seats alone. One of the surprises of 2022 was how Dems held on to/flipped several narrow Biden seats around Des Moines and hence narrowly fended off a GOP supermajority.
If they actually want to win statewide though, they have to find a way to reconnect with these rural farming areas which seems tricky given the way the national party is changing. They should really stay away from the national party and focus specifically on issues that pertain to the agricultural industry, meet people where they're at and stuff. Part of the reason IA was much bluer in the early 2000s was because Rs were absolutely toxic for these areas and the Dem message resonated.
Iowa is still overall a rural state; racking up large margins out of Des Moines is helpful but it's not enough.
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