Will NC become larger than Georgia?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers. 

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers. 

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal. 

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers. 

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal. 

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Does this mean technically NC could be bigger than GA rn if there really was that bad of a miscount? Also, if they know the true amount of people who live in a state, then why not just use that lol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers. 

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal. 

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Where do those seats come from? You think wv, ri, ny, midwestern states lose more? Maybe ca continues to stagnates

WV just lost a seat so it should hold it's 2nd seat for another few decades.

RI and NY are def both vulnerable to losing another seat.

The usual midwestern suspects who've been losing for a while (PA, IL, OH, MI), with an off chance of smtg from IN, MN, and/or WI.

AL

Chance of CT and/or NJ.

And CA could def lose another seat, possible a few.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers.  

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal.  

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Where do those seats come from? You think wv, ri, ny, midwestern states lose more? Maybe ca continues to stagnates

WV just lost a seat so it should hold it's 2nd seat for another few decades.

RI and NY are def both vulnerable to losing another seat.

The usual midwestern suspects who've been losing for a while (PA, IL, OH, MI), with an off chance of smtg from IN, MN, and/or WI.

AL

Chance of CT and/or NJ.

And CA could def lose another seat, possible a few.

Possible guess here: TX +4, FL +3, AZ +2, GA +1, WA +1, RI -1, OH -1, NY -2, PA -1, IL -1, OH -1, MN -1, MI -1, AL -1, NJ -1.

Yeah seems about right.

MN losing 1 would kinda suck because the 8 district map is just like a staple of the state at this point.

Personally though, I think it'd be pretty hard for AZ to gain 2, though I could see it coming close. It's still growing fast, but not as fast as it used to, and it's still a relatively small state. In Pheonix I think they're sort of running out of room given the geography of the mountains around it. And Tucson has been notably slowing down.

I think UT and ID both have very good chances of gaining a seat, infact, I'd argue ID is almost guaranteed given how fast it's growing and how relatively close it came in the 2020 census. This would finally allow for a true Boise based seat and not splitting the Valley down the middle. Utah I'm less sure about, but as things stand today, it's growing above the rate it needs to to gain that 5th seat.

I'm also not convinced FL would gain 3, even if there was an undercount in 2020. The state is really filling out, growth in places like Miami is beginning to stall, climate change makes it less desirable, and also just the fact old people eventually die. I don't think this combination of factors will outright turn growth on its head but slow it down enough to keep it at a more modest gain of 1 or 2.

Texas is a big wild card given that there's several major metros; one suddenly booming like crazy or starting to lag could def make the difference between seats 40, 41, and 42.