Will NC become larger than Georgia?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

GA is the 8th most populated state, and NC is #9. However from the 2020 census there is only 272k difference between their populations. Throughout history since the colonial era, the two have went back and forth in trading leads. Is it possible this decade NC overtakes Georgia?

[Vosem]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

[Skill and Chance]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers. 

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

[Skill and Chance]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers. 

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers. 

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal. 

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

[Skill and Chance]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers. 

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal. 

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

[gerritcole]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers. 

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal. 

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Where do those seats come from? You think wv, ri, ny, midwestern states lose more? Maybe ca continues to stagnates

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers. 

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal. 

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Does this mean technically NC could be bigger than GA rn if there really was that bad of a miscount? Also, if they know the true amount of people who live in a state, then why not just use that lol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers. 

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal. 

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Where do those seats come from? You think wv, ri, ny, midwestern states lose more? Maybe ca continues to stagnates

WV just lost a seat so it should hold it's 2nd seat for another few decades.

RI and NY are def both vulnerable to losing another seat.

The usual midwestern suspects who've been losing for a while (PA, IL, OH, MI), with an off chance of smtg from IN, MN, and/or WI.

AL

Chance of CT and/or NJ.

And CA could def lose another seat, possible a few.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers.  

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal.  

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Where do those seats come from? You think wv, ri, ny, midwestern states lose more? Maybe ca continues to stagnates

WV just lost a seat so it should hold it's 2nd seat for another few decades.

RI and NY are def both vulnerable to losing another seat.

The usual midwestern suspects who've been losing for a while (PA, IL, OH, MI), with an off chance of smtg from IN, MN, and/or WI.

AL

Chance of CT and/or NJ.

And CA could def lose another seat, possible a few.

Possible guess here: TX +4, FL +3, AZ +2, GA +1, WA +1, RI -1, OH -1, NY -2, PA -1, IL -1, OH -1, MN -1, MI -1, AL -1, NJ -1.

[Skill and Chance]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers. 

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal. 

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Where do those seats come from? You think wv, ri, ny, midwestern states lose more? Maybe ca continues to stagnates

WV just lost a seat so it should hold it's 2nd seat for another few decades.

RI and NY are def both vulnerable to losing another seat.

The usual midwestern suspects who've been losing for a while (PA, IL, OH, MI), with an off chance of smtg from IN, MN, and/or WI.

AL

Chance of CT and/or NJ.

And CA could def lose another seat, possible a few.

Possible guess here: TX +4, FL +3, AZ +2, GA +1, WA +1, RI -1, OH -1, NY -2, PA -1, IL -1, OH -1, MN -1, MI -1, AL -1, NJ -1.

This looks a lot like what I expect.  Not sure if you intentionally had OH losing 2?  I think it's more likely the other lost seat would come from a smaller Plains or Northeast state.  IIRC, Connecticut, Kansas, and Nebraska are all getting pretty close to the seat loss threshold.  On the other hand, ND-02 starts to be plausible if commodity prices stay high for years.

The other thing is that AL was caught up in the Southern undercount and still kept  AL-07.  Therefore, I would be somewhat surprised if it loses that seat next time.  I think it's more likely CA loses another seat.

ID-03 is also likely to happen in 2031 if current trends continue, but it will take some time to know if that's permanent or just a temporary Boise real estate bubble.

With the expansion of federal employment after the 2008 crisis, VA-12 looked like it was going to happen in 2020, but probably won't anymore until/unless the country enters a significant war.  Let's hope that doesn't happen.  Also federal WFH policies are very lenient making it less important to live in the DC area going forward. 

[Frodo]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers.  

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal.  

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Where do those seats come from? You think wv, ri, ny, midwestern states lose more? Maybe ca continues to stagnates

WV just lost a seat so it should hold it's 2nd seat for another few decades.

RI and NY are def both vulnerable to losing another seat.

The usual midwestern suspects who've been losing for a while (PA, IL, OH, MI), with an off chance of smtg from IN, MN, and/or WI.

AL

Chance of CT and/or NJ.

And CA could def lose another seat, possible a few.

Possible guess here: TX +4, FL +3, AZ +2, GA +1, WA +1, RI -1, OH -1, NY -2, PA -1, IL -1, OH -1, MN -1, MI -1, AL -1, NJ -1.

With the notable exception of Florida, I fully expect Democrats in the other listed sunbelt states to have a say in redistricting by then, whether through control of the governor's mansion or at least one house of the legislature.  

[Skill and Chance]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers.  

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal.  

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Where do those seats come from? You think wv, ri, ny, midwestern states lose more? Maybe ca continues to stagnates

WV just lost a seat so it should hold it's 2nd seat for another few decades.

RI and NY are def both vulnerable to losing another seat.

The usual midwestern suspects who've been losing for a while (PA, IL, OH, MI), with an off chance of smtg from IN, MN, and/or WI.

AL

Chance of CT and/or NJ.

And CA could def lose another seat, possible a few.

Possible guess here: TX +4, FL +3, AZ +2, GA +1, WA +1, RI -1, OH -1, NY -2, PA -1, IL -1, OH -1, MN -1, MI -1, AL -1, NJ -1.

With the notable exception of Florida, I fully expect Democrats in the other listed sunbelt states to have a say in redistricting by then, whether through control of the governor's mansion or at least one house of the legislature.  

Indeed, this 2030's map would be pretty brutal for Dems in the EC with their current coalition, and potentially in the House if they don't have a say in Texas by then.  They have to either break through in Texas and/or NC or run the table in the other swing states:



The Dem basically needs all of Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania to win on this map.  I also highly doubt Nevada holds out that long.

IMO Texas is probably more promising than NC for Dems going forward with what we know now.  Abbott got the rural Anglo counties to swing even more toward him from already insane Solid South style margins, did much better than Trump in DFW and basically matched Trump in the RGV but the statewide result was still closer than his last run in 2018.  Harris also didn't turn into the near tie many expected.  This suggests that the Dallas suburb counties can actually take the state with them if/when they eventually flip Dem.  There's also the matter of not even having to win the statewide vote to flip the lower house of the legislature.

On the other hand, 2022 results suggest R's are still nowhere near their ceiling in rural NC.  There's also the fact that NC practically already has an Independent State Legislature (note Dems did this to themselves) that isn't afraid to change the rules on the fly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Possible guess here: TX +4, FL +3, AZ +2, GA +1, WA +1, RI -1, OH -1, NY -2, PA -1, IL -1, OH -1, MN -1, MI -1, AL -1, NJ -1.

This looks a lot like what I expect.  Not sure if you intentionally had OH losing 2?  I think it's more likely the other lost seat would come from a smaller Plains or Northeast state.  IIRC, Connecticut, Kansas, and Nebraska are all getting pretty close to the seat loss threshold.  On the other hand, ND-02 starts to be plausible if commodity prices stay high for years.

The other thing is that AL was caught up in the Southern undercount and still kept  AL-07.  Therefore, I would be somewhat surprised if it loses that seat next time.  I think it's more likely CA loses another seat.

ID-03 is also likely to happen in 2031 if current trends continue, but it will take some time to know if that's permanent or just a temporary Boise real estate bubble.

With the expansion of federal employment after the 2008 crisis, VA-12 looked like it was going to happen in 2020, but probably won't anymore until/unless the country enters a significant war.  Let's hope that doesn't happen.  Also federal WFH policies are very lenient making it less important to live in the DC area going forward. 

Nebraska should still be fine come 2030 considering how many people are going there for the cheap cost of living. I don't think that's as strong of a factor in KS, so if I had to guess, between those three, the likelihood of losing a seat is highest for CT and lowest for NE. Historical trends on paper would suggest CT losing a CD might be well-overdue by 2030...they most recently lost a seat in 2000. But Connecticut has never had more than six CDs, so maybe this is just a faulty way to look at it.

Good catch re: ID-03. I completely forgot about it being possible; Idaho has never had more than two CDs, interestingly enough. I also forgot that CA could lose another seat. The "Southern undercount" surely helped CA at least on the margins.

Re: Alabama, I think it will come down to places like the Mobile metro. Baldwin County will be a place to watch. No matter what happens, if AL keeps 7 seats, AL-01 shrinks. If AL loses a seat, AL-01 might not grow too much at all to begin with...provided it stays in a recognizable form.

VA+1 might still well happen if the sprawl in Northern Virginia continues to grow, I would not rule it out.

[Vosem]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers.  

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal.  

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Where do those seats come from? You think wv, ri, ny, midwestern states lose more? Maybe ca continues to stagnates

WV just lost a seat so it should hold it's 2nd seat for another few decades.

RI and NY are def both vulnerable to losing another seat.

The usual midwestern suspects who've been losing for a while (PA, IL, OH, MI), with an off chance of smtg from IN, MN, and/or WI.

AL

Chance of CT and/or NJ.

And CA could def lose another seat, possible a few.

Possible guess here: TX +4, FL +3, AZ +2, GA +1, WA +1, RI -1, OH -1, NY -2, PA -1, IL -1, OH -1, MN -1, MI -1, AL -1, NJ -1.

With the notable exception of Florida, I fully expect Democrats in the other listed sunbelt states to have a say in redistricting by then, whether through control of the governor's mansion or at least one house of the legislature.  

That is not how AZ works! Arizona has an Independent Redistricting Commission, membership of which is determined by a commission which is (substantially) appointed by the Governor, but tends to lag because it's for a fixed time. Thus, AZ redistricting tends to advantage (although not by much, since there are strict rules here) who won the gubernatorial election before the last one: in 2011, it advantaged Democrats (because Janet Napolitano had won in 2006), and in 2021, it advantaged Republicans (because Doug Ducey had won in 2014). In 2031, it will advantage whichever party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election; the legislature actually doesn't come into it much.

My actual guess is that GA will probably be controlled by Democrats by then almost no matter what, given how fast the demographic trends are there; by contrast I think TX will probably be controlled by Republicans unless 2030 is a really severe Republican midterm (in which Democrats win a landslide). By contrast, it's probably plausible that Republicans will still control GA if 2030 is a Democratic midterm.

~~

It should also be noted that a Republican trifecta elected at the federal level in the 2020s, if such a thing happens, will at least attempt to pass voting rights legislation which would include a codification of Evenwel redistricting at the federal level (a conservative court would probably find Congress not to have the authority to do this at the state legislative level), which would change congressional redistricting within a state to depend on CVAP rather than total number of persons (which is actually how most democratic countries -- such as, eg, all of Europe -- do it). Reapportionment between states would remain on the old formula (total persons) since it is constitutional. This would force a large-ish number of seats from urban areas to rural ones, particularly in Sunbelt states (CA/FL/TX), and make the 2030 redistricting process more of a ticking time bomb for Democrats than it already is.

~~

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal.  

If you do the math, then Florida, Texas, and Tennessee should all have an extra seat, and Colorado, Minnesota, and Rhode Island should all have one less. This cost the GOP two seats (all three of the new ones would be red seats, but the seat MN would cut would also likely be one of the red outstate ones). CO was on the bubble regarding gaining a seat or not, and it'll very likely hold on to the 8th seat in 2030, but MN and RI verge on certain losses, while FL/TX/TN all verge on certain gains. (OTOH, it feels like MN nearly loses a seat every Census, and then it never actually pans out, so maybe not).

One of the most unexpected results of the Census -- that AZ didn't gain any seats, even though it was expected to gain 1 and have an outside chance at 2 -- is apparently thought to be "true". Meanwhile, TN wasn't thought to even have a chance; it gaining would've been very unexpected. (AZ is still expected to gain 1-2 in 2030, though; it is growing, just not as fast as had been thought).

[Tintrlvr]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers.  

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal.  

This is true but also not true. If you read through the report, you'll see that their estimated undercount and overcount are taking a limited household survey similar to the ACS methodology used to produce their ordinary estimates, then subtracting the actual Census figures. In other words, they largely just assumed that the methodology for their estimates would produce a result that was more correct than the Census methodology and claimed undercounts and overcounts in the Census on that basis. Therefore, it's really not any more revealing or a greater admission than when they put out the 2021 estimates that largely repeated pre-2020 estimate results. Whether the estimates are actually more correct than the Census is truly impossible to know for certain (I'm not going to rule out that they are), but I would think a new Census survey in 2030 utilizing (mostly) the same methodologies as in 2020 is more likely to produce a result similar to the 2020 Census than to estimates that use an entirely different methodology.

One point: If the Census was truly so far wrong in multiple places, you'd expect it show up fairly dramatically in voter registrations and turnout figures relative to 2010 (e.g., a state like Hawaii that is reported to be dramatically overestimated should be showing much lower voter registrations and turnout figures as a percentage of the overall population and VAP than it did shortly after 2010). It hasn't.

[Skill and Chance]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers. 

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal. 

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Where do those seats come from? You think wv, ri, ny, midwestern states lose more? Maybe ca continues to stagnates

WV just lost a seat so it should hold it's 2nd seat for another few decades.

RI and NY are def both vulnerable to losing another seat.

The usual midwestern suspects who've been losing for a while (PA, IL, OH, MI), with an off chance of smtg from IN, MN, and/or WI.

AL

Chance of CT and/or NJ.

And CA could def lose another seat, possible a few.

Possible guess here: TX +4, FL +3, AZ +2, GA +1, WA +1, RI -1, OH -1, NY -2, PA -1, IL -1, OH -1, MN -1, MI -1, AL -1, NJ -1.

With the notable exception of Florida, I fully expect Democrats in the other listed sunbelt states to have a say in redistricting by then, whether through control of the governor's mansion or at least one house of the legislature. 

That is not how AZ works! Arizona has an Independent Redistricting Commission, membership of which is determined by a commission which is (substantially) appointed by the Governor, but tends to lag because it's for a fixed time. Thus, AZ redistricting tends to advantage (although not by much, since there are strict rules here) who won the gubernatorial election before the last one: in 2011, it advantaged Democrats (because Janet Napolitano had won in 2006), and in 2021, it advantaged Republicans (because Doug Ducey had won in 2014). In 2031, it will advantage whichever party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election; the legislature actually doesn't come into it much.

My actual guess is that GA will probably be controlled by Democrats by then almost no matter what, given how fast the demographic trends are there; by contrast I think TX will probably be controlled by Republicans unless 2030 is a really severe Republican midterm (in which Democrats win a landslide). By contrast, it's probably plausible that Republicans will still control GA if 2030 is a Democratic midterm.

~~

It should also be noted that a Republican trifecta elected at the federal level in the 2020s, if such a thing happens, will at least attempt to pass voting rights legislation which would include a codification of Evenwel redistricting at the federal level (a conservative court would probably find Congress not to have the authority to do this at the state legislative level), which would change congressional redistricting within a state to depend on CVAP rather than total number of persons (which is actually how most democratic countries -- such as, eg, all of Europe -- do it). Reapportionment between states would remain on the old formula (total persons) since it is constitutional. This would force a large-ish number of seats from urban areas to rural ones, particularly in Sunbelt states (CA/FL/TX), and make the 2030 redistricting process more of a ticking time bomb for Democrats than it already is.

~~

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal. 

If you do the math, then Florida, Texas, and Tennessee should all have an extra seat, and Colorado, Minnesota, and Rhode Island should all have one less. This cost the GOP two seats (all three of the new ones would be red seats, but the seat MN would cut would also likely be one of the red outstate ones). CO was on the bubble regarding gaining a seat or not, and it'll very likely hold on to the 8th seat in 2030, but MN and RI verge on certain losses, while FL/TX/TN all verge on certain gains. (OTOH, it feels like MN nearly loses a seat every Census, and then it never actually pans out, so maybe not).

One of the most unexpected results of the Census -- that AZ didn't gain any seats, even though it was expected to gain 1 and have an outside chance at 2 -- is apparently thought to be "true". Meanwhile, TN wasn't thought to even have a chance; it gaining would've been very unexpected. (AZ is still expected to gain 1-2 in 2030, though; it is growing, just not as fast as had been thought).

I forgot about Tennessee.  That would obviously help R's in the EC.  It seems pretty clear a Dem Nashville seat would be unavoidable on a 10 seat map with 10 more years of local trends there, though. 

Regarding Republicans codifying CVAP or registered voters redistricting, that's as much of a pipe dream as Dems passing HR1 in this past congress unless they somehow get 60 senate seats.  Also, GOP campaigns in the years since losing Evenwel have increasingly focused on flipping Hispanic and Asian voters and parents of young children, to the point where it becomes questionable if their 2030's coalition would even benefit from the Evenwel standard.

Regarding Texas, remember Democrats can lose the statewide legislative PV by as much as Biden lost in 2020 and still plausibly take the lower chamber.

A Dem trifecta in Georgia is truly unlikely this decade because of the state senate, however I would be shocked if Dems still don't have a say in state government after 2030.  An underrated possibility is that Georgia Republicans do a Virginia and put a redistricting commission amendment on the ballot before they lose control.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers.  

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal.  

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Where do those seats come from? You think wv, ri, ny, midwestern states lose more? Maybe ca continues to stagnates

WV just lost a seat so it should hold it's 2nd seat for another few decades.

RI and NY are def both vulnerable to losing another seat.

The usual midwestern suspects who've been losing for a while (PA, IL, OH, MI), with an off chance of smtg from IN, MN, and/or WI.

AL

Chance of CT and/or NJ.

And CA could def lose another seat, possible a few.

Possible guess here: TX +4, FL +3, AZ +2, GA +1, WA +1, RI -1, OH -1, NY -2, PA -1, IL -1, OH -1, MN -1, MI -1, AL -1, NJ -1.

With the notable exception of Florida, I fully expect Democrats in the other listed sunbelt states to have a say in redistricting by then, whether through control of the governor's mansion or at least one house of the legislature.  

That is not how AZ works! Arizona has an Independent Redistricting Commission, membership of which is determined by a commission which is (substantially) appointed by the Governor, but tends to lag because it's for a fixed time. Thus, AZ redistricting tends to advantage (although not by much, since there are strict rules here) who won the gubernatorial election before the last one: in 2011, it advantaged Democrats (because Janet Napolitano had won in 2006), and in 2021, it advantaged Republicans (because Doug Ducey had won in 2014). In 2031, it will advantage whichever party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election; the legislature actually doesn't come into it much.

My actual guess is that GA will probably be controlled by Democrats by then almost no matter what, given how fast the demographic trends are there; by contrast I think TX will probably be controlled by Republicans unless 2030 is a really severe Republican midterm (in which Democrats win a landslide). By contrast, it's probably plausible that Republicans will still control GA if 2030 is a Democratic midterm.

~~

It should also be noted that a Republican trifecta elected at the federal level in the 2020s, if such a thing happens, will at least attempt to pass voting rights legislation which would include a codification of Evenwel redistricting at the federal level (a conservative court would probably find Congress not to have the authority to do this at the state legislative level), which would change congressional redistricting within a state to depend on CVAP rather than total number of persons (which is actually how most democratic countries -- such as, eg, all of Europe -- do it). Reapportionment between states would remain on the old formula (total persons) since it is constitutional. This would force a large-ish number of seats from urban areas to rural ones, particularly in Sunbelt states (CA/FL/TX), and make the 2030 redistricting process more of a ticking time bomb for Democrats than it already is.

~~

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal.  

If you do the math, then Florida, Texas, and Tennessee should all have an extra seat, and Colorado, Minnesota, and Rhode Island should all have one less. This cost the GOP two seats (all three of the new ones would be red seats, but the seat MN would cut would also likely be one of the red outstate ones). CO was on the bubble regarding gaining a seat or not, and it'll very likely hold on to the 8th seat in 2030, but MN and RI verge on certain losses, while FL/TX/TN all verge on certain gains. (OTOH, it feels like MN nearly loses a seat every Census, and then it never actually pans out, so maybe not).

One of the most unexpected results of the Census -- that AZ didn't gain any seats, even though it was expected to gain 1 and have an outside chance at 2 -- is apparently thought to be "true". Meanwhile, TN wasn't thought to even have a chance; it gaining would've been very unexpected. (AZ is still expected to gain 1-2 in 2030, though; it is growing, just not as fast as had been thought).

I forgot about Tennessee.  That would obviously help R's in the EC.  It seems pretty clear a Dem Nashville seat would be unavoidable on a 10 seat map with 10 more years of local trends there, though. 

Regarding Republicans codifying CVAP or registered voters redistricting, that's as much of a pipe dream as Dems passing HR1 in this past congress unless they somehow get 60 senate seats. 

Regarding Texas, remember Democrats can lose the statewide legislative PV by as much as Biden lost in 2020 and still plausibly take the lower chamber.

A Dem trifecta in Georgia is truly unlikely this decade because of the state senate, however I would be shocked if Dems still don't have a say in state government after 2030.  An underrated possibility is that Georgia Republicans do a Virginia and put a redistricting commission amendment on the ballot before they lose control.

I actually think the TN GOP would have been satisfied with getting the new seat in an 8-2 map and wouldn't have drawn out Cooper.  That seems especially likely considering that they didn't actually chop Nashville in the most efficient way (it wouldn't have been hard to keep everything Trump +20, but they left Ogles's district at Trump +11) due to concerns of the incumbents.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers.  

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal.  

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Where do those seats come from? You think wv, ri, ny, midwestern states lose more? Maybe ca continues to stagnates

WV just lost a seat so it should hold it's 2nd seat for another few decades.

RI and NY are def both vulnerable to losing another seat.

The usual midwestern suspects who've been losing for a while (PA, IL, OH, MI), with an off chance of smtg from IN, MN, and/or WI.

AL

Chance of CT and/or NJ.

And CA could def lose another seat, possible a few.

Possible guess here: TX +4, FL +3, AZ +2, GA +1, WA +1, RI -1, OH -1, NY -2, PA -1, IL -1, OH -1, MN -1, MI -1, AL -1, NJ -1.

Yeah seems about right.

MN losing 1 would kinda suck because the 8 district map is just like a staple of the state at this point.

Personally though, I think it'd be pretty hard for AZ to gain 2, though I could see it coming close. It's still growing fast, but not as fast as it used to, and it's still a relatively small state. In Pheonix I think they're sort of running out of room given the geography of the mountains around it. And Tucson has been notably slowing down.

I think UT and ID both have very good chances of gaining a seat, infact, I'd argue ID is almost guaranteed given how fast it's growing and how relatively close it came in the 2020 census. This would finally allow for a true Boise based seat and not splitting the Valley down the middle. Utah I'm less sure about, but as things stand today, it's growing above the rate it needs to to gain that 5th seat.

I'm also not convinced FL would gain 3, even if there was an undercount in 2020. The state is really filling out, growth in places like Miami is beginning to stall, climate change makes it less desirable, and also just the fact old people eventually die. I don't think this combination of factors will outright turn growth on its head but slow it down enough to keep it at a more modest gain of 1 or 2.

Texas is a big wild card given that there's several major metros; one suddenly booming like crazy or starting to lag could def make the difference between seats 40, 41, and 42.