Besides CCM, I think it might be Barnes.
Three reasons:
1.) Unlike in presidential elections, polling did not Democratic support in WI in the 2018 midterms
2.) Abortion will be a big issue driving voters to the polls in Wisconsin with a strongly Republican legislature and legacy antiabortion laws subject to partisan enforcement.
3.) Wisconsin has same-day voter registration, so factor (2) may drive a lot of young pro-choice voters to vote who are now unregistered and thus cannot be picked up by polling.
Also jsut looking at the current average, a Barnes performance actually seems realistic whereas I have a hard time seeing Kelly winning by 6 or Ryan outright winning.
Another state where I suspect Dems have a good shot of outperforming polling is Colorado as historically, they've almost always matched if not outperformed polling in the state.
This is a good point. Polis, in particular, has been leading in the polls by double digits, and the RCP average has him up by 14.2. If he outperforms the polls, in line with past historical trends, then he should run ahead of Biden's 2020 margin. As for Bennet, it could mean that he might hit low double digits against O'Dea, although he will still run behind Polis by a substantial amount.
I think as long as O'Dea loses by a fairly substantial amount (>5%), it'll pretty much confirm CO's status as a safe D state going forwards.
Of all places in the country, Colorado seems like a place Dems are less likely to experience huge slippage from 2020 due to:
1. Dems general reliance on pretty reliable high education voters in Denver/Boulder
2. Collapse of the GOP in suburbs. We may see some reversions but the GOP isn't going back to Gardner 2014 or Romney 2012 levels
3. Favorable growth patterns for Dems
4. From the stats I've seen, Colorado hasn't been hit as hard as some other states
5. Polis, the main Dem in the state, being very effective at mesaging and not overdoing things around covid.
Poll
