Respect for Marriage Act

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ron Johnson said he's voting against it? Which is great for us because we want that very competitive Senate race for the rest of the agenda. The House vote suggests the Senate should vote for it, but it looks like a tough fight for the numbers.

Right? Like I thought he would vote for it to appear more "moderate", since he is perceived now as ultra conservative.

That would be the smart move but he is just saying and doing whatever he wants.

Perhaps 2016 made Johnson feel somewhat invincible?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I hope it has some sort of tangible effect. I'm starting to feel like Democrats need something significant again to keep the ball rolling.

Ron Johnson said he's voting against it? Which is great for us because we want that very competitive Senate race for the rest of the agenda. The House vote suggests the Senate should vote for it, but it looks like a tough fight for the numbers.

Right? Like I thought he would vote for it to appear more "moderate", since he is perceived now as ultra conservative.

That would be the smart move but he is just saying and doing whatever he wants.

Perhaps 2016 made Johnson feel somewhat invincible?

Maybe today's Marquette poll will do that too.

Yep we got a Johnson + 1 poll. Safe R cause of polling error.

Seriously though, even if you’re in a remotely competative race in a state that heavily supports SSM, why vote against it? It just gives your opponents ammunition

[ProgressiveModerate]

Portman's the only plausible GOP vote for a cloture vote here, let alone for actually passing the bill, and that's specifically because his son is gay. Everyone else will vote no (even Murkowski), and if Portman didn't have the immediate gay relative, he'd probably be a no vote too.

Collins?

I don't think so, because she'd lose a primary if she voted for this (assuming she intends to run for reelection in 2026).

I'm pretty sure Collins and Murkowski will vote for it. Collin's re-election is too far out, she comes from a very pro-SSM state, and there's a very good chance she won't seek re-election. She was able win the primary in 2020 without too much serious opposition despite having been publicly pro-SSM

Murkowski has actually supported SSM for a long time and given RCV in Alaska, there's not really any electoral consequences in voting for it, infact I'd argue it'd help her.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Portman's the only plausible GOP vote for a cloture vote here, let alone for actually passing the bill, and that's specifically because his son is gay. Everyone else will vote no (even Murkowski), and if Portman didn't have the immediate gay relative, he'd probably be a no vote too.

Collins?

I don't think so, because she'd lose a primary if she voted for this (assuming she intends to run for reelection in 2026).

I'm pretty sure Collins and Murkowski will vote for it. Collin's re-election is too far out, she comes from a very pro-SSM state, and there's a very good chance she won't seek re-election. She was able win the primary in 2020 without too much serious opposition despite having been publicly pro-SSM

Murkowski has actually supported SSM for a long time and given RCV in Alaska, there's not really any electoral consequences in voting for it, infact I'd argue it'd help her.

It'd help Murkowski if her immediate danger was a Democrat, not Kelly Tshibaka, who is running way to her right and will hammer her over this, and Murkowski can't afford to lose the voters she already has.

As for Collins, I think if she's already decided not to run for reelection in 2026, she votes in favor, if she is running, or hasn't decided yet, she votes against.

Most polling suggests Alaska is pretty pro-SSM and honestly voting against it makes it more likely for her to be "squeezed out". Her goal is to consolidate both Democrats and moderate/non-MAGA Rs to beat Tshibaka, a group which OVERWHELMINGLY supports SSM.

What benefit would Collins get to voting against SSM marriage 4 years out from her primary? I really doubt the main argument against her by an R challenger will be that she voted to codify SSM marrige into law 4 years ago. The issue is likely to be even further down on the GOP totem pole in 4 years, especially when it comes to the Northeast.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My very early prediction, assuming the Collins amendment is added to the bill:

Collins
Murkowski
Portman
Tillis
Scott (FL)
Ernst
Toomey
Romney
Capito
Johnson

On the bubble (3 of them will vote yes):
Fischer
Cramer
Tuberville
Sullivan
Burr
Lummis

Fringey (1 of them will vote yes)
Rubio
Thune
McConnell
Crapo

Tuberville!? Lummis!? Rick Scott? Johnson?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Reguardless of how this vote goes, it's amazing how in just a little over 10 years, we went from basically nobody except some activists supporting full marriage equality to having significant bipartisan support with near universal agreement on the Dems side.

If it's not codified this time, it will be codified pretty soon.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Apart from the NC Senators, the one thing all of the Republicans who voted for this had in common was that they weren't from the South.  The same thing was very clear in the House vote.  Southern Republicans are often motivated by a slightly different set of issues than non-Southern Republicans are.

Interestingly, Florida got the most Republican defections for Southern states in the House (5 representatives), while neither of its Senators voted in favor of the bill. Of course, Florida is more demographically distinct than the rest of the South and has different issues at play - for example, three of those Florida's Republican yes votes were Cuban-American Republicans who represent a metro with a prominent LGBTQ community.

The Florida GOP has done a relatively good job at expanding their base to include a lot of communities that are traditionally not associated with R politics, most notably, Hispanics. At face value, Florida has a lot of the demographics of a Dem leaning state but GOP overperfroms demographics big time.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1593364025542410243
Hmmm...what happened to this Joe Biden?

16 years of political changes, introspection, and personal growth.

Try it out.

I'm not quite as old as Joe Biden, but as an old man, I don't see how opinions can change that quickly on a topic like that.

Maybe because people are just people and love is love? Through history, different groups have gone through periods short and long of being shunned by society, but generally we should strive for only criminals and sussybaka to be shunned.

I also think as soon as more people started feeling ok expressing homosexuality, a pt changed very quickly because people realized this was their family and friends.