Rate CO-SEN (Bennet vs O'Dea)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lean D. It’s hard to argue Dems aren’t favored but to say it’s more or less a lock for them is short sighted.

Yes Biden had a very impressive 13.5 point win in Colorado in 2020. However, on that same ballot Looper only won by 9 and it’s yet to be seen how “normal” or “above average” Biden’s performance may have been. If you believe a generic Dem would’ve won CO by ~10 points with the 2020 electorate, a swing in the electorate of just 6 points right could make Ds start to get worried.

I also want to point out Colorado is a highly educated state, meaning moderating politically will tend to be more fruitful. Will O’Dea ultimately do a good enough job at not mess things up? We’ll see. He’s a relative newcomer who hasn’t been tested on a campaign trail so it’s really up to him how well or poorly he does.

The main issue I see for Rs in Colorado is that Denver and Boulder are both very reliable at turning out and provide Ds a very high floor in the state that has only been getting higher. An R these days really has to run the table around the state, including the greater Denver suburbs, rural communities, Mesa, Hispanic Communities, farm communities, and so on.

For now though CO is a D leaning state and Bennet is innofensive as an incumbent, plus Polis seems to be running strong. Could be Rs one last realistic shot at a CO seat for a while.