OK-Gov 2022: Dream the Impossible Dream?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.soonerpoll.com/post/democrat-jena-nelson-leads-ryan-walters-in-statewide-school-superintendent-race

Sooner Poll has Democrat Jena Nelson leading Republican Ryan Walters by 5 points for the Superintendent race.

I don’t believe this, but it would be truly hilarious if Oklahoma elects a statewide Democrat and Florida doesn’t.

I don't think it's that ridiculous, lower-profile offices like this frequently go against the partisan lean of the state.

Practically I think it's pretty much impossible for Democrats to win a state like Oklahoma under really any circumstances. Rural Oklahoma is like super dense and basically impossible to outvote, not to mention OKC and Tulsa tend to be quite conservative cities.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Democrats do actually enjoy an edge on education, at least in red states. Many voters trust the GOP government to stop 'CRT' but want to stop them from defunding public schools. For instance, Indiana had a Democratic suuperintendent quite recently.

Education is one of those issues where people tend to blame state politics rather than national politics because frankly education sucks in red and blue states alike and education tends to be seen as a more state/local issue. In NY for instance, I am still very upset with how the Democrats in charge handled school closures and protocols that imo were way too aggressive. Furthermore the proactive effort by many liberals to get rid of the so called "elite" public schools is also messed up. But if Republicans were hypothetically in charge, I'm sure there are things I'd be upset at them about.

In OK, the chance the governorship actually flips is pretty close to 0 but Stitt will not win by Trump's 33% margin. At the very least I expect Hofmeister to win Oklahoma County (though it swings less left than the state due to low minority turnout). There's also an outside chance she wins something like Cleveland County where white liberals are a powerful bloc.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I could believe a Democrat winning a gubernatorial election in Oklahoma, but I'm skeptical of these polls because they also show the Senate races being a lot closer than they should be. Lankford in particularly has always been a strong performer in his races.

I think Lankford and Mullin will win by more than the polls indicate, but it's not hard for me to see the two Horns getting above 30%. Oklahoma County has swung left over the past decade, and both Trump and Inhofe came within a few thousand votes of losing it in 2020. And of course, polarization will lower the ceiling for even the strongest incumbents.

Also generally Oklahoma seems like a place where Dems are pretty close to rock bottom. Basically the only communities they win are heavily Black/Hispanic parts of OKC and Tulsa. Suburbs are insanely R and we already know the story with rural areas, even those with high Native populations.

Maybe in the right circumstances a Republican could juice out an extra point or two from Trump, but it's really hard to see how Dems fall below 30%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

For counties, she prolly wins Oklahoma County given how things are going. I think there's a good chance she wins Trump + 14 Cleveland County because of it's suburban nature and Norman; Edmonson won it in 2018.

Tulsa County is quite a tough carry for a Dem but it's def possible if Stitt is really that unpopular. She could also carry a few of the heavily native counties such as Muskogee and Cherokee (which Edmonson won in 2018, Muskogee by just 1 vote). McIntosh, Payne, and Okmulgee counties are also possible I suppose.

Finally the only other county I could see her carrying is Comanche County home to Lawton. Stitt narrowly won it in 2018.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

For counties, she prolly wins Oklahoma County given how things are going. I think there's a good chance she wins Trump + 14 Cleveland County because of it's suburban nature and Norman; Edmonson won it in 2018.

Tulsa County is quite a tough carry for a Dem but it's def possible if Stitt is really that unpopular. She could also carry a few of the heavily native counties such as Muskogee and Cherokee (which Edmonson won in 2018, Muskogee by just 1 vote). McIntosh, Payne, and Okmulgee counties are also possible I suppose.

Finally the only other county I could see her carrying is Comanche County home to Lawton. Stitt narrowly won it in 2018.

Unless Hofmeister absolutely nosedives into oblivion, she is winning Oklahoma County. I feel like people forget how close Biden was to winning it. If Hofmeister manages > 40% (much likelier than not, in my opinion) she is probably winning Cleveland.

Beyond those 2: I don't think the difference in counties between a healthy Stitt win vs a narrow Hofmeister win is necessarily all that great. At least not like it would be with a Democrat in the past winning a bunch of rural counties. With a uniform swing, a narrow Hofmeister win is possible with only 6 counties: Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland, Comanche, Payne, and Cherokee. Obviously it won't be an exact uniform swing, but I think the likeliest counties for Hofmeister to win are all from that list, whether she wins or loses. It's just a question of how many she wins.

Beyond those 6: Muskogee is worth watching. Okmulgee on paper seems interesting, but it actually hasn't shown it's ancestral D character much in awhile, as far as I know. If I had to add another wildcard county, it would actually be Pontotoc, not McIntosh. Pontotoc voted for Medicaid expansion, and I think a Hofmeister win would likely closely resemble the Medicaid expansion map.

If Hofmeister gets only around the vote share that Edmondson did, my guess would be she trades Muskogee for Tulsa.

Thank you for this analysis. Ngl my understanding of OK politics is quite poor given the state usually doesn;t get much election coverage. Do you think Hoftmeiser will win any CDs? The GOP shored up OK-05 to be like Trump + 18 so it's not an easy question to answer.

I wonder why Expansion passed in pontonoc County, a county that gave Trump over 70% of the vote. I doubt Hoftmeiser wins it but is there some weird dynamic there?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Watched the debate and Stitt was annihilated. I think Hoftmeiser did a good job as coming across as “safe” and just small subtle things like choosing to wear a red outfit as a Dem is telling. Also she roasted Stitt like several times but not in the “woke” way.

Stitt seemed quite submissive throughout the debate and actually reminded me of Kamala a bit the way he laughs every time he clearly doesn’t want to answer a question.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/dlknowles/status/1582875985514356736

I think Republicans have been very effective at painting Dem cities specifically as less safe even though in reality there’s not a strong correlation.

I hate to be *that* person but some of it has to do with racism.

And one underrated factor too is the abundance of CCTV in cities. You can actually rewatch a recording of the crime, whereas if someone was brutally stabbed to death or eaten by a cow in a field in rural Oklahoma there would be no CCTV and hence that killing is less likely to become sensationalized. Extreme example but you get the point.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Daily reminder everyone knows Hofmeister was a Republican until like last week so radical socialist attacks (the entire GOP playbook, essentially) don't work.

I'm totally stereotyping here in the worst possible way, but I kinda pat myself on the back for seeing Hofmeister for the first time and just having the immediate thought of "I bet she wasn't always a Democrat".  

I think it's also because my brain needed to latch onto some explanation for the polls.  

Political parties definitely have a look. The best example is Jeanine Áñez, who is the most Republican-looking non-American I've ever seen.

When it comes to political parties, you can 99% of the time tell if a man is a D or R by what colour tie they’re wearing and if they’re old white.

With female politicians it can be a bit trickier. I tend to see female Republican politicians either wear more pronounced makeup/highlights/earrings or literally nothing, whereas female democrats tend to be more modest on those sorts of things but rarely go all natural.

Also most with some sort of “alternative” style lean Dem.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the odds: if Hofmeister wins, she switches back to GOP like Jim Justice in 2017?

Her excuse would probably be some decision made by the Biden Administration on energy policy/renewables...

I could def see it, but I don't think it would be right away, and Hoftmeiser actually seems to fit that Demographic that actually is becoming more favorable to Democrats so even if she does switch back, she'll prolly stay relatively moderate unlike Justice who is now normie GOP governor.

A big part of the question is does she plan on seeking re-election