MI-GOV Megathread: 👵🏻 Gram died alone.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dear god, I really hope Karamo doesn't win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://kristinakaramo.com/

The way her ad looks visually gives off high education moderate suburban mom vibes

The way she talks in her ad sounds like those safety films they show before takeoff on a plane

What she's saying in her ad is completely insane and she self refers to her campaign as a "populist campaign"

I really hope enough Michiganders are sensible

[ProgressiveModerate]

It'd be funny if Dems campaign against Karamo on the grounds she opposes premarital sex and how that leads to pedophilia somehow. That's how you can get young folks to show up lol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It is worth noting that the Democrats have had a lucky streak in Michigan as of late. With the top GOP contender (James Craig) potentially having just doomed himself from the nomination and Democrats having overperformed in several MI statewide elections. I still think it's a toss-up but of the toss-ups I'd now argue that this is the most likely to remain Democrat.

The GOP has shot themselves in the foot over and over again. Like in hindsight Slotkin and Stevens should've been more serious targets in 2020 and they should've taken MI-Sen 2020 more seriously. MI-Sen 2014 was also embarrassing.

Also on the statewide office levels, the GOP always seems to run people outside the mainstream who really struggle to connect with voters and come off as either too extreme and/or too in it for themselves.

Considering they could still increase margins in many communities in the state and the main Dem vote get; Detroit, has been shrinking, the GOP really needs to take the state more serious long term, especially since the new maps make the state legistlature more competative and a Dem trifecta isn't out of the question this decade.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Whitmer got beyond lucky here. I am not saying this election is written in stone but her chances of reelection went up significantly. There is even a chance Democrats get the legislature.

Lol at how much the commission tried to unpack Ds in the state legistlature.

Fr though I think the MIGOP has a problem as they've quite a poor job at genuinely trying to expand their base and just end up isolating more and more folks. Seems like in states like FL, NV, and TX for instance their efforts have been much stronger

[ProgressiveModerate]

The MI GOP’s has run so many sussybakas

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like MI Government will have a divided government for quite a long time if Whitmer ends up winning in 2022. Even though the legislative maps have been "ungerrymandered", perhaps a bit too much, Dems still have uphill geography that is unlikely to flip and they tend to underperform downballot.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Definitely a possible great turnout pusher for D statewide candidates this fall:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1544486114345508864

The abortion ballot thing will almost surely pass in MI. Honestly though this is one of those races where I can truly say basically everything that could've worked in Dems favour has, so unless something dramatically changes (which is possible), a Dem L in this race likely spells trouble in a lot of other places.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Definitely a possible great turnout pusher for D statewide candidates this fall:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1544486114345508864

Great, this is absolutely going to pass and perhaps give Dems a few extra points in turnout.

Purely from a political perspective, it may have been better on the 2024 ballot instead, huh?

No, certifying it as soon as possible is the right move, plus there still is a real chance Rs gains trifecta and flip the court and try to do some funny buisness by 2024.

Democrats/liberal groups have used the ballot initiative in MI quite well imo, scoring them a lot of wins when the state government is deadlocked. Just look at how hood the MIRC has been for them lol

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also is it just me or does Dixon's whole personality often come across as very artificial?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also is it just me or does Dixon's whole personality often come across as very artificial?

How so? Please elaborate.

I was watching her on FOX News and she seems to answer all the questions word for word with some sort of default script inside her head with a monotone voice.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxC7GAirK5g

Here's an example

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Classic and Deluxe models on 538 now rate MI-Gov as "Solid D" with the Classic giving Whitmer a 99% of winning re-election.

Imo, Solid D is overconfident given MI is a polarized swing state, but the GOP is really screwing up what should've been a very realistic pickup opportunity.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As of this writing, 538's forecast model gives Whitmer a 95% chance of winning reelection. Are you implying that even this forecast is too optimistic?

95% is certainly more reasonable than their previous estimate (99%), but still too high in my view. I’d only peg it that high if I knew that Democrats were going to win a resounding victory across the board this November and that this would be the best midterm election for the President's party since 1934.

538 has MI and MD Gov voting basically the same which doesn't seem right, especially since there has basically been no serious polls from MI.

I don't understand how fundamentals alone can Push Whitmer up so much in their model to the point where they can have that degree of confidence, especially when the overall outlook for Dems doesn't seem too great.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder if Whitmer can win 9 of 13 districts and potentially bring James down as well. Dems now have a canidate for MI-04 as well but seems very unlikely they win the seat even if Whitmer does

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's like they're car dealership workers being told to do a hostage video

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1560805794538561537

Somehow I get Walmart employee vibes; prolly the blue. I think the bad lighting changes the vibes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly, if Dems could flip the State Senate or even win a trifecta outright, I'd be over the moon since the GOP has had an iron-fist on the legislature for quite a long time. I still tend to think Dems narrowly lose both chambers, but Whitmer seems likely to win a majority of State Senate disitricts and has a good shot of winning a majority of state House seats which may help pull some Dems over the edge.

Whitmer is also likely to carry MI-10 where James in running. I actually think MI-10 might be part of Dems path of least resistance given it's downballot residual support (compared to a place like NJ-07).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do ya'll think a relative strong Whitmer performance could help Dems get a 8-5 congressional delegation out of MI? If I had to guess at this point, MI-03, MI-07, MI-08, and MI-10 all seem to be leaning in Whitmer's favor and all seats seem to have a realistic chance of going either way for US House

An 8-5 delegation from MI would be extremely helpful to Dems if they want to have a shot at keeping their House majority, especially since 3 of those seats (MI-07, MI-08, and MI-10) are to the right of the median House seat on 2020 Pres numbers.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do ya'll think a relative strong Whitmer performance could help Dems get a 8-5 congressional delegation out of MI. If I had to guess at this point, MI-03, MI-07, MI-08, and MI-10 all seem to be leaning in Whitmer's favor and all seats seem to have a realistic chance of going either way.

An 8-5 delegation from MI would be extremely helpful to Dems if they want to have a shot at keeping their House majority, especially since 3 of those seats (MI-07, MI-08, and MI-10) are to the right of the median House seat on 2020 Pres numbers.

It definitely could, I had initially written off MI-10 as an R gain especially with James, but if Whitmer wins by like 6-7 statewide, then Democrats holding on there could be very plausible. MI-07 and MI-08 are both going to be tough but the implosion of the MIGOP should help Dems there. I'd say Dems get a 7-6 D delegation in the end.

Also I think people forget that James actually lost the new MI-10 in both of his Senate bids lol. The Dem candidate seems at least fairly well known to the area too. This was never a default R gain even if Trump narrowly won the seat.

I really have to commend the MI Commission on their congressional maps. They're compact, make sense in terms of COIs, and have a variety of competitive districts. The state legislative maps seem  bit rushed though ngl and they did too much to unpack black seats to the point where it hurts black voters.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm genuinely confident MI state senate is going to flip

How come?

I think based on how effectively the map unpack Dems, a relatively strong slate of candidates with good fundraising, and 2 of the key narrow Biden seats they need to win generally being bluer downballot (Macomb County and Saginaw), and what's going on at the top of the ticket.

Imo pretty close to a pure tossup, but any sort of GOP suburban crossover doesn't really save the GOP here as basically all those seats are Biden +doubledigits or just not needed for a Dem majority.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm genuinely confident MI state senate is going to flip

How come?

I think based on how effectively the map unpack Dems, a relatively strong slate of candidates with good fundraising, and 2 of the key narrow Biden seats they need to win generally being bluer downballot (Macomb County and Saginaw), and what's going on at the top of the ticket.

Imo pretty close to a pure tossup, but any sort of GOP suburban crossover doesn't really save the GOP here as basically all those seats are Biden +doubledigits or just not needed for a Dem majority.

I see.

https://projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/state-legislative/michigan

CNanalysis is actually quite nice. A good way to think about is is Dems have to win all the Biden + double digits seats and 3 of the 5 Biden + single digit seats, one of which has a really strong incumbent, 2 of which tend to be bluer down ballot, and 2 of which are zooming left.

[ProgressiveModerate]

MI is a very pro-Democracy state. The ballot initiative process seems to be one of the most open and least bureaucratic in the nation

[ProgressiveModerate]

This could actually help Dixon
https://twitter.com/approject/status/1569302195354337280?s=21&t=ofmLau3IHG1n...

In all seriousness what kind of comic book even is this and what has Whitmer specifically done to put it in schools? I highly doubt she even ever alluded to that book, and it is certainly not part of any curriculum. Say the book just randomly exists in a library at some school, that still seems like a relatively minor problem of all possible things.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1572337686161022976

The way she said the "do you want me to send some to you..."  sounded so awkward, unnatural, and forced lol. Prolly not gonna have a huge impact but def funny.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1575142769043116033

Time to start pouring some of the resources from those states into AZ, NV, and WI instead?

Hopefully. Possibly Kansas too.

I would also say Oregon maybe at this point, but as disappointing as it would be to see the Democratic Governor streak end, the stakes are still much lower than in the three states you brought up.

Oregon, I don't think has too bad of consequences if Dems lose since Dems will probably retain at least 1 chamber of the state legislature and even if they don't, the state supreme court is quite liberal and would safeguard stuff like an abortion ban.

Either way, I think Oregon Dems have been quite frustrating and while I ultimatley hope Dems retain at least partial control over the state, they need to face some consequences.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm very curious to see how the Governor race goes by CD. Michigan has a ton of competitive districts, including like 3 possible tipping points, now and it could have implications down the ballot.