Texas 2022 megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fwiw, in Collin county, it pains me to say that Beto is being demolished in the sign game. I know it probably doesn't matter in the end but I've only just started to see a few Beto signs on the highways after the parade of GOP signs. Democratic congressional candidates are doing a little better...

Interestingly, on private residences, I've seen way more Beto signs than GOP, however.

May I ask where are you in Collin County?

I live in Allen, which is pretty central... although my job regularly brings me all across Collin and the DFW area.

Interesting because Allen is a very swingy community that has obviously been shifting hard left in recent cycles.

If you're seeing more neighbors with Beto signs than Abbott signs, that seems like a good thing in my book. I do agree that things like highway signage can show how seriously campaigns are investing in certain communities though so that's a bit dissapointing.

Indeed, Biden actually won Allen by 1 point in 2020 while Romney won it by 31 points in 2012 (no joke!) so Collin is certainly seeing movement. And while it's absolutely anecdotal I can personally attest to having convinced nearly a dozen people to register to vote and vote Blue since I moved here in late 2019. I don't know a single person under 30 who is voting GOP.

It's a little over 300 bucks to buy 40 yard signs... Maybe if I'm still here in 2022 I'll fundraise and put the damn signs up myself, lol. Does anyone know the law on that? Can you just go put up signs for your candidate where you see dozens of others?

Regardless of how the parties evolve, I feel pretty confident in saying Collin County will be a D-leaning County by the end of the decade because it seems like growth and generational turnover is extremely favorable to Dems. It's def one of those places where even if Rs tried it just is not demographically possible for it to vote how it did just a decade ago.

I also feel like places like Allen and Frisco are stereotyped as being extremely white well to do suburbs when infact as of the 2020 census, Allen is just 51% white and Collin County overall is also just 51% white and by 2030 will almost certainly be majority-minority.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Houston Chronicle in 2020 also had a very bipartisan list of endorsements and it wasn’t always just “who’s more bipartisan”, but they generally seem to swing with the public.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The fact that Abbott couldn't even win Hays in 2018 shows how gone it is for the GOP.

I'm not sure if 2018 is the "even then" year since it was the strongest statewide performance for a Democrat in a long time. Not being able to win it THIS year is the "it's gone" year.

With brutal trends for Rs, a major university with a large student population, and with Austin not being too far away, those factors are pretty much enough for this county to already be considered "gone"

What happened in Hays could happen in Bastrop, given time. Though it's far from there...yet. The area around Austin is like the opposite of the RGV in how it's been trending.

A lot of it may also have to do with rapid urbanization in the areas between Austin and these exurban cities like Bastrop and (until recently) San Marcos. With places like Bastrop and Elgin, there's still quite a bit of rural countryside in between those towns and the main urban cluster of Austin and its suburbs. But with the recent rapid growth of Kyle and Buda, that rural countryside that used to separate Austin and San Marcos is being urbanized fast. This can also already be seen with the suburbs of Georgetown, Hutto, and Taylor, and that's also part of why trends in Williamson County are some of the most brutal for Republicans, possibly even more so than in Collin, Denton, or Fort Bend.

Not to mention Temple/Belton/Killeen to the north.

Honestly, Bell County is a bit too far out to ever truly be part of Austin the way Denton has been pulled into DFW, however, it does seem like some of it's influence still pulls over a little bit.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Abbott has this. Early Vote Turnout in Texas is below 2018 Levels.

My Question is can Abbott pad enough of a margin to drag Mayra Flores, Monica de la Cruz and Cassy Garcia over the line.

RGV turnout specifically has actually been pretty insane with Starr County surpassing its ENTIRE 2014 vote total and other counties coming close.

It’s hard to tell who exactly this favors. On the one hand, people can make the case that in 2020 higher turnout was a large part of the reason RGV swung so heavily to Trump. On the flip side, RGV still leans D overall and perhaps Democrats taking the region seriously for once could yield higher turnout on their side as well.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1587540450763743232

Is this on TV or no? That’s one hell of an ad.

I think what's good about this ad it is really doesn't come across as a political ad and it's engaging to thye viewer through the humor in the skit and stuff

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1587436823256522752

That’s actually a really sweet story. Beto seems like a good communicator, especially on the more individual level. I doubt these 2 men encompass any large swath of the electorate though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1587436823256522752

That’s actually a really sweet story. Beto seems like a good communicator, especially on the more individual level. I doubt these 2 men encompass any large swath of the electorate though.

Beto strikes me as the classic "pretty cool guy" candidate.  His politics aside (some of which I like, some I don't), you could easily shoot the sh**t with him about music or sports or just life in general.  

Def passed the want to have a beer with test. He’s also been pretty effective at not being able to just be defined as a “progressive” or “moderate” or those sorts of labels. I think he loses but holds it closer than expected considering the national environment.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone have any updates on the State House/State Senate? Obviously both chambers are Safe R, and there are very few competative seats because of Rs gerrymander.

In the State Senate, my understanding is the only competitive seats are a few of the border seats which Republicans were unable to draw out due to not wanting to risk VRA. Unlike the congressional map, all 5 border seats went to Biden by varying degrees, and one (SD-21) literally reaches up into Austin.

In the State House, the fact that CN Analysis only has 3 seats rated as Lean or less in either favor is insane. It's also kinda insane that pretty much no matter what Dems should stay above 60 seats in the State House barring some massive suprise.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think what is most interesting is looking at the NYT swing maps, Abbotts biggest gains over Trump was almost exclusively in rural areas which is def not what I was expecting. This prolly has to do with Beto just being toxic for these areas.

In most of the cities though, he only barely outran Trump 2020 and in Travis County (Austin) he did outright worse.