AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Rs lose this race, it'll almost certainly be some throw away because the GOP candidate is just too much and causes too much chaos whereas Kelly has done a good job at remaining lowkey, uncontroversial, and relatively well-liked.

Feels like this is GA Runoff potential 2.0

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's good he has the money, but money itself doesn't matter, it's really how one uses it to campaign (and only that can do so much). I expect once we have a claer picture of the R, they will be well funded too.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Republicans had run a normal Republican, they prolly could’ve had this in the bag, but Masters is certainly not the best fit. Will it matter in the end? We’ll see. But still

[ProgressiveModerate]

RATINGS CHANGE

AZ SENATE: LEAN R >>> TOSS-UP/TILT D

https://twitter.com/KyungLahCNN/status/1540173323098652672

LOL. In a state like AZ, with tons of retirees, this sounds like a great idea... to blow your race.

Still premature at this point, but if Dems indeed keep the senate this year, a large part can be attributed to the GOP nominating horrible candidates. I feel like they're overconfident in almost all their elections. That was different 4 years ago, when Dems often chose to play it safe and nominated good candidates (except for Gillum, lol).

I'm not sure what the end result will be, but this is very much one of the main differences between 2018 and 2022.

In 2018, Democrats ran relatively inoffensive and moderate candidates throughout the US in key federal races; progressive "squad-like"  members really only ran and hence got elected in ubersafe Dem seats.

In 2022, the Republicans seem very cocky and have recruited a lot of more controversial candidates in key races, even though many races in safe states actually have decent GOP nominees. The GOP really seems to be betting on the populist Trump message which ultimately failed them in 2018 and 2020 to bring them back in 2022. It may work given in wave years the party out of power is given a media pass for the most part, but overall it would not be the direction I would want to take the GOP if I want to win elections down to road.

I wonder if we'll see a "2-tiered" wave year where the "normal"/establishment GOP candidates generally hold up a few points better nationally than controversial candidates tied to the big lie and just general extremism. In many ways, generic ballot polls and individual race polls aren't really lining up and this could be part of the reason.

Like just imagine how 2018 would've gone if Dems got AOC type candidates to run for congress in places like Iowa or the competative suburban SoCal seats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is the guy who people think is prime to beat Kelly?

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1550640231170326528

Not like I’m saying any one statement will doom Masters, but it seems like he doesn’t even care about seeming electable in the GE.

This is one of the huge differences between the 2018 and 2022 midterms and it's yet to see how it'll play out. In 2018 Democrats tried to run relatively moderate or at least mainstream Dems in most key races whereas Rs are running mostly loyalists.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ah yes, Blake Masters, a white man, seems very in tune in to exactly what Hispanics and Latinos "hate the most"

Tbf Hobbs isn't Hispanic either.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1554913579043676165?s=20&t=LGxPYXFoSbeQ...
The NYT is so obsessed with Masters it's getting weird.

Honestly Lake is a better point of attack. Masters, while I do think he's extreme and I really dislike him, is humble relatively to Lake who is much easier to attack. If anything all this NYT piece does for many is reinforce the idea that a liberal media is "out to get him" or whatever.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1555202747108102145?t=ssuabkVJ7uAC9pro3B2F...

Overall that's def a good ad that presents himself in a friendlier way without potentially pissing off MAGAs. However, that ad doesn't really say anything about where he stands on a lot of important issues and that's what he's going to need to figure out how to present, especially since a lot of his stances are not in line with the median AZ voter.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1555202747108102145?t=ssuabkVJ7uAC9pro3B2F...

Overall that's def a good ad that presents himself in a friendlier way without potentially pissing off MAGAs. However, that ad doesn't really say anything about where he stands on a lot of important issues and that's what he's going to need to figure out how to present, especially since a lot of his stances are not in line with the median AZ voter.

Yeah, this first batch of ads from Oz, Vance, Masters, etc. are good... for the spring. At this point in the campaign they're already woefully behind and need to pull out the big guns.

I thought Oz’s recent ad was pretty bad cause he filmed it like he’s a sexy bad ass runner except he’s an old dude with moobs.

Vance has catching up to do cause rn the optics are not on his side, so running solid ads are important for making him more like able to your average per son.

[ProgressiveModerate]

An important thing to consider:

While yes, in 2020-Sen, there was a time when Kelly's average was up by double digits in polling, by ED it had narrowed to about Kelly + 5 on average which wasn't all that far off. I suspect we'll see the same thing here where polarization ultimately causes polling to narrow in the final few weeks. How much is really what matters though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No, Arizona will not be Likely D. Anyone who thinks that will be coping hard on election night.
https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1561865805897293825?s=21&t=ekzr3ZO...

I've learned the hard way that characterizing any competitive race as Likely two and a half months out is a bad idea. Even two weeks out can be risky.

That being said, I *could* see this as Likely D by election day, but I'll need a lot of strong evidence before I make that sort of call. Personally I don't expect to classify it as anything more than Lean D.

Also, is an 80% chance of victory really "likely"? I feel like the likely threshold needs to be raised to something more like 85%.

But I agree, DDHQ model seems to take polls way too literally which pushes a lot of competitive Senate seats hard left past fundamentals that are keeping the House very R.

I think one thing that makes this challenging to analyze is Mark Kelly very recently had a race where polling far out reguarly had him up 10 points, only to close to like 4 by ED and for him to only win by a little over 2%. I think what many saw as a closer than expected calls is scaring folks a bit about 2022. However, if you input all the existing data we have into any sane model, it'd output Kelly as a clear favorite (Usual Swing State, Incumbent who overperformed top of ticket, Kelly has money advantage, the polling average is Kelly + 10, ect) even though most of us as humans have a belief and I'd argue a justified belief that the race will be a lot closer than these data points would project.

Personally, I tend to like the 538 model better; in 2020 they still gave McSally a 20%+ chance throughout even as many other models had completely written her off. 538's current project of 70% Kelly seems a bit more reasonable than most other models at this point. JHK's forecast for Senate and House seem pretty good at dealing with lopsided polling averages.

My main worry for Kelly and frankly AZ Dems is usually Hispanic turnout is dreadful in midterms and it'd take quite a lot of investment to change that. Sinema had to do universally better than Kelly with whites to win by the exact same margin.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No, Arizona will not be Likely D. Anyone who thinks that will be coping hard on election night.
https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1561865805897293825?s=21&t=ekzr3ZO...

I've learned the hard way that characterizing any competitive race as Likely two and a half months out is a bad idea. Even two weeks out can be risky.

That being said, I *could* see this as Likely D by election day, but I'll need a lot of strong evidence before I make that sort of call. Personally I don't expect to classify it as anything more than Lean D.

Also, is an 80% chance of victory really "likely"? I feel like the likely threshold needs to be raised to something more like 85%.

But I agree, DDHQ model seems to take polls way too literally which pushes a lot of competitive Senate seats hard left past fundamentals that are keeping the House very R.

I think one thing that makes this challenging to analyze is Mark Kelly very recently had a race where polling far out reguarly had him up 10 points, only to close to like 4 by ED and for him to only win by a little over 2%. I think what many saw as a closer than expected calls is scaring folks a bit about 2022. However, if you input all the existing data we have into any sane model, it'd output Kelly as a clear favorite (Usual Swing State, Incumbent who overperformed top of ticket, Kelly has money advantage, the polling average is Kelly + 10, ect) even though most of us as humans have a belief and I'd argue a justified belief that the race will be a lot closer than these data points would project.

Personally, I tend to like the 538 model better; in 2020 they still gave McSally a 20%+ chance throughout even as many other models had completely written her off. 538's current project of 70% Kelly seems a bit more reasonable than most other models at this point. JHK's forecast for Senate and House seem pretty good at dealing with lopsided polling averages.

My main worry for Kelly and frankly AZ Dems is usually Hispanic turnout is dreadful in midterms and it'd take quite a lot of investment to change that. Sinema had to do universally better than Kelly with whites to win by the exact same margin.

Isn't Kelly still winning in LV polls.

Yes but even LV polls can have issues with predicting turnout dynamics

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is pretty interesting, as Masters is one of very few Republican candidates who’s trying to make government overreach in the context of COVID-19 a key theme of his campaign. He’s also pivoting away from Trump -

After a bruising primary campaign, Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters and his team are seeking to center his general election against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly on what they term as “cultural issues,” immigration, inflation and COVID-19, among other topics.

A recent Masters speech at a Turning Point Action event, where he was joined by GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggests he sees latent frustration at the lockdowns and mask mandates of two years ago as an issue that could attract voters in November.

Masters never once mentioned politically divisive former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he promoted until winning the Republican primary. Instead, he talked about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new COVID-19 guidelines, which eliminate isolation restrictions for unvaccinated people.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/20/senate-hopeful-blake-masters-aims-government-overreach-covid-19/10341704002/

Looks smart. Arizona does feel like a place in which an "non-libertarian thing the government did" could be more effectively attacked than elsewhere.

Except immigration continues to sink in the top issues for voters and COVID-19 is basically non-existent in voters worries as well.

I get the idea that he's pushing but it's kind of like pushing CRT at this point. It's just not as potent of an issue.

I think there are a lot of voters still salty about COVID for one reason or another, be it school closures or lack of work, and tapping in to people's anger always seems to be one of the most successful strategies. You don't want to overdo it but giving people a gentle reminder now and then helps.

Immigration really only seems to work in Texas where you have several major entrance points that overflow. Even though AZ is a border state, only a very small part of the border sees any action.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/hodgesmr/status/1563166264545390592

Srs Kudos to whoever got screengrabs. From now on Imma ensure I do that whenever I see something very controversial on an R's policy page.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interestingly, Dobbs may have saved Masters in AZ. He has polled a bit better (still clearly behind) since moderating on abortion (and entitlements to a lesser degree).

If the Dobbs affect were to happen in Arizona, it would be benefitting Hobbs because abortion is now handled at the state level not federal, yet it seems that it is not materializing. Masters is running positive ads about himself, while Kelly is on the attack. Almost every time I try to watch a youtube video I get one of the "Blake Masters not for us" ads. There were some positive Kelly ads over the summer but they've disappeared. Masters is not polling good, but I'm hopeful because he is doing better than McSally was at this point in 2020.

No kidding, which is why I think the Dobbs effect is overrated. If it was stronger, Hobbs would be leading by 4-5 points by now because Lake is so toxic

AZ is still a purple state, so Hobbs leading about 1-2 right now even in a Dobbs environment is pretty realistic to me.

And even then Dems pretty universally improved in polling across the board post Dobbs albeit in some states more than others. Also a reminder the final polling averages in AZ really weren't that bad in 2020 but polling did have a sharp turn in favor of the GOP in the state come election day. We'll see if that's the case again this year, but assuming a Hobbs + 2 lead actually means Lake + 6 isn't rooted in anything. The only states you may be able to make that argument for are the midwestern states where polls have had big problems several cycles in a row.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Personally, while I see the logic, I think this is a slight jump too soon since the election is still like 7 weeks away. A reminder that in 2020, polls in Senate races like AZ narrowed very last minute as undecides made up their and while Kelly still won in 2020, it was by a much smaller margin than most had assumed at this point.

I'm not saying this race will see the exact same trajectory as the 2020 race, but I would've waited another few weeks to see if Kelly keeps holding his lead in the polls. Rn it's tilt D for me.

[ProgressiveModerate]

You wonder if Hobbs might pull it out after this and even the legislature along with AZ-1,6 are in play. GOP has been a total train wreck here since the spring.

I'm still mad at Dems for literally failing to recruit Dems in several state legislative districts Biden won.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bro I swear every AZ political debate uses that same moderator.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Masters praising Sinema is interesting. Masters sounds like a Super PAC and Kelly seems fairly normal, libertarian guy seems to be going off on rants randomly.

I think that's master's issue. Similar to Oz, he just gives off weird vibes and over-uses certain talking points

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why is Marc Victor at this debate? In the few polls he's been in he's been dreadful

[ProgressiveModerate]

WTF was that pivot by Masters. "I'm just questioning the results of the 2020 election and wish we could count the votes faster but the FBI and media are censoring Hunter Biden Laptop story."

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly neither of them are great speakers. Kelly has been stumbling a lot and Masters seems like a human robot still under development.

[ProgressiveModerate]

CNN: Trump’s Arizona slate risks turning off independent-minded voters in key Senate and governor’s races

Pretty good article featuring interviews with several voters.

This would be nice. And maybe that means there won't actually be as many frustrating split ticket voters as polls are suggesting. That's the real problem with many of this years' elections.

It doesn't seem like polls neccessarily suggests high number of ticket splitters, but rather Kelly and Lake are both the more well known candidates. I would be really surprised if Lake outran Masters by like more than 2 or 3% cause even though she's well known, she isn't more appealing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1583879683560845318?t=jX1Z6bwiDtsno2L1EKkRQ...

I think this has always been true throughout the cycle. If Dems are tie or losing the NPV, AZ is def not a shoe-in lol.

My main fear as I've said before is low Hispanic turnout really costing Dems.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol all y’all comparing current senate races to previous senate races are a bit silly. Every senate race has its own very unique circumstances and there’s never 2 that are truly parallel, maybe some mild similarities at best.