Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Funny how Webster and Burke; some of the first to come in were the only 2 counties to have notable shifts rightwards. We have to remember though that in Nov, the e-day vote in Webster actually broke for Ds which is interesing reversal from most of the state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Might we get a call on the Warnock - Loeffler race tonight or by tomorrow morning?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just curious; if Dems pull both these off, what will be considered the tipping point seat in the Senate?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just curious; if Dems pull both these off, what will be considered the tipping point seat in the Senate?

Whichever one is closer.

So probably the Class II seat.

What if the margin in both races is larger than MI-Sen? Getting Perdue below 50% in Nov was pretty tight squeeze.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone notice how MM faded into the abyss?

[ProgressiveModerate]

What happened in Gilmer County!? According to NYT it swung 10 points to the right despite basically everywhere else swinging left.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seriously; is Gilmer County an error?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The tipping point in the Senate may very well end up voting to the left of the tipping point on the Presidential level, which is interesting to think about.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is it fair to say that in retrospect, the Presidency, Senate and House were all Tilt D?

Yeah, imagine telling someone the day before e-day that Democrats would only win 222/223 House seats but win the Senate

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any idea why Newton county swung heavy R despite so many seemingly simillar counties swinging D?

[ProgressiveModerate]

At this point I think Perdue wins and Loeffler loses.

Why? None of the analysis out there suggests Perdue is going to win.

None of the analysis said Trump would win in 2016. I don't blindly trust the media.

I'll tell you exactly why I think this - so far, Perdue has held a stronger lead over Ossoff than Loeffler has held over Warnock. Perdue has been a serious, if not low key, member of the Senate. On the other hand, Loeffler, whom I personally like a lot, is being perceived as the billionaire's wife. Her husband runs the boardroom, and she runs the Federation of Republican Women's weekly brunch. She's not as serious a candidate, and she's up against a much stronger opponent than Perdue is.

However, on election night in 2016, it became clearer and clearer he would win as more and more votes came in. Right now, 87% of the estimated vote is in, and the remaining votes are concentrated in heavily D areas, and there's no reason to think Cobb would suddenly take a hard shift right when pretty much every single other major Atlanta metropolitan county shifted several points to the left from Nov.

Your analysis before the election would've been fair but it's not fully supported by the vote totals we're seeing, though Perdue is outperforming Loefller a tad.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Uhhhh Dekalb CEO Thurmond just said there are only 130k votes left to count in Dekalb...

If that's all that are left and I'm looking at the current totals, Dekalb would only be at around 70% of November's raw totals...that'd be among the lowest (if not the lowest) turnout in the state.

Something's not right there because were 275k votes in DeKalb just from early voting and only 140k have been reported thus far. Maybe though are just the remaining early votes?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The 130k number is definately off since that means fewer people will have voted in DeKalb than people who voted early. Maybe they mean 130k votes will be dropped by tonight?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Jon Ossoff isn't entirely out of the woods but Perdue's path would require basically everything possible to go wrong for Dems in the remaining dumps.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Where the f is DeKalb!?

[ProgressiveModerate]

LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

I have such a hard time believing that this is not an act at this point. The absence of self-awareness is truly beyond my comprehension.

Humor me...


Republicans gain in Coffee county and Houston county.

That likely brings Perdue from 9k to 20k.

You think there’s over a net of over 20k of Dem votes?

I’ve never doubted the needle before but... something doesn’t make sense.

I’m not “trolling”

There are literally 100 mail ballots still oustanding from the ATL metro area. Explain to me how that breaks any less than 60-40 for Democrats?

[ProgressiveModerate]

How fast do you guy think it'll take to certify the results. Warnock's lead seems pretty clear, but Ossoff may go to a recount, though I doubt the ultimate outcome will change.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What makes some of you so sure that Ossoff will win? I can see this going to the wire and its not a done deal yet.

I mean, unless you think Perdue is suddenly going to net votes from mail votes disproportionately from Atlanta, he’s going lose. The best chance Perdue has is if there’s some major tabulation error.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Isn’t it ironic that Democrats won the Senate because of a Republican senator dying, a Republican senator retiring, and an outdated runoff system the GOP reinstated to help them win

[ProgressiveModerate]

So it sounds like you guys think the Dems are taking both of these? I'm still seeing people say Perdue/Ossoff is a dead heat. I'm assuming the remaining ballots favor the Dems?

Really hoping the Dems win for a full repudiation of Trump. If the Republicans want to do better run with a non-insane candidate at the top of the ticket next time.

Right now Perdue and Ossoff are basically tied in total votes but this is basically a similar situation to when Trump and Biden were virtually tied in PA; the outstanding vote is extremely D

IMO, the most likely chance of a Perdue comeback is some tabulation error

[ProgressiveModerate]

Alongside MS, CO, and NH, these were the 2 of the few competative Senate races where Democrats did better than the Atlas consensus projected.

[ProgressiveModerate]

When do we think the race will be called for Ossoff?

Probably in the afternoon when most people are watching. Really depends upon when DeKalb and Fulton plan to dump.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ironically, this thread is at it's emptiest when the media officially projects that these races will flip the Senate to Democrats

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like at this point this more than makes up for ME and NC. Even though Warnock only gets 2 years, Warnock and Ossoff I like better than Gideon and Cunningham, especially the later, and Perdue and Loeffler are more offensive than Collins

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any updates on when Ossoff and Warnock will be sworn in?