2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

What state do you think will be called next?

States still up in the air: AZ, NV, PA, GA, and NC

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why was Georgia the only state where the polls seem to be accurate?

Seems like they were also pretty accurate in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Not in ME-Sen

It seems like overall, polls didn't know how to deal with the stark increase in turnout nationwide.

Polling tended to be the worst in states or regions that had the biggest increase in turnout

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is Perdue gonna fall below 50%? This is our last chance in the senate barring an NC miracle

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

I swear if Democrats win the Senate and the Presidency but lose the House...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

If EVERY news org called it, I find it hard to believe we could possibly lose it. Aren't we still waiting on a lot of votes in like California seats and such?

Going by NYT, here are some remaining seats that seem favored to go D: WA-8, CA-25, CA-34, CA-39, AZ-1, GA-7, MI-11, MN-2, NY-18, NY-19, NY-4, NY-3, VA-7, PA-17, IL-14, MI-5, PA-7, PA-8.

Ds should be ok in the House, though their majority will shrink

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why hasn't NC been called if it's 100% reporting?

It's not officially 100%; we don't necessarily know how many late ballots there will be

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is it a pretty safe bet to say Peters will cling on in MI? He's currently leading, but not by much.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is it a pretty safe bet to say Peters will cling on in MI? He's currently leading, but not by much.

I THINK so, but it's looking razor thin. James might try for a recount, but doubt it makes up that many votes.

Good to know. This race has and continues to give me frights. It seems like the final 4% of the vote should break heavily for Peters,  but you never know

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gary Peters appears to be pulling away in MI. Huge sigh of relief. All I want now is to get Perdue under 50% in GA

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/GongwerMichigan/status/1324142278357770240

But I was told John James is the future of the GOP?

Seriously though, after beating expectations twice in a row, he might run for something else again. But right now it's kinda looking like he's the Dino Rossi of Michigan.

Watch him run for Gov in 2022 only lose to to Whitmer...

Honestly, that was dangerously close though, and now Democrats task is to push Perdue under 50%. I swear if he squeaks by with something like 50.02%...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Perdue down to 50.3%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NYT hasn't called any House races in such a long time, geez.

[ProgressiveModerate]

ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

Yeah, this will genuinely be the (IMO) most aesthetic map since Lincoln

Even though I want Biden to win NC, it would kind of ruin the clean map ngl.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think this may be the last time that the Democratic path to victory runs through MI/WI/PA.

From 2024, I expect it to run through NV/AZ/GA/NC

I wouldn't be so sure about Michigan and Pennsylvania. They don't seem to be voting much to the right of the nation this year. At least not any more than last time.

WI/MI/PA are still going to be completely winnable for Democrats going forward. Not only that, we need these states for their Senate seats in addition to electoral paths. It would be dumb for Democrats to look past them when... they literally just won them (minus PA at this hour)

I said "the path to victory", that is, the path to 270 EV.

I didn't say that Democrats are not going to try to win them, but that they won't be needed for 270 EV.

The more options the better.


Dems really need to try to get TX to vote to the left of the nation, or at least even with the nation, since that would do a great deal of harm to the Rs edge in the EC

[ProgressiveModerate]

So what are the differences that accounted for Republicans winning Ohio in a blowout and losing Wisconsin and Michigan?

Well first off there was far more campaigning in MI, WI and PA.

Also; even just a small shift in OH is disasters for Trump in the northern Midwest; he barely won these states in 2016. According to the NYT trend map, SE OH looked like it took another hard trend to the right

[ProgressiveModerate]

So what are the differences that accounted for Republicans winning Ohio in a blowout and losing Wisconsin and Michigan?

Well first off there was far more campaigning in MI, WI and PA.

Also; even just a small shift in OH is disasters for Trump in the northern Midwest; he barely won these states in 2016. According to the NYT trend map, SE OH looked like it took another hard trend to the right

But aren’t those three states pretty demographically similar?

They are, they are all manufacturing blue collar states, but SE OH is very different than northern WI.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ok Jesusland was nice but:

I can't bear NM, AZ, and OK. Also, I hate that little arm of WV that sneaks into the blue south, and also Maryland's sharp corner against a very curvy divide

[ProgressiveModerate]

Meclazine's analysis is too pessimistic for Biden in PA.  He's on track to win it comfortably at this point.

Seems like worst case it's literally a statistical tie, and best case Biden wins by a little under 3-4%

[ProgressiveModerate]

Perdue down to 50.2%

[ProgressiveModerate]

Philly still only at 70% as per NYT

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden down to 72c on PredictIt from 80+ earlier today.  Based on what?  We haven't heard anything at all from Arizona and the only development has been Fox News fending off Trumpworld assaults on their call.

Biden's probability of winning has gone up according to the numbers, it's just that because nowhere has been called for a while it increases uncertainty. A lot of it is mental. A lot of people got happy when MI and WI were called for Biden, but that happiness will wane to fear by default, even if there no bad news.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What ever happened to the AZ dump?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think these AZ numbers make it close to impossible for Trump to make a comeback in the state

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yikes Arizona feels like it’s sliding away

These are not the numbers Trump needs to reclaimed the lead

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yikes Arizona feels like it’s sliding away

It is sliding away.......from Trump lol

Can you quote numbers this is based on? The latest update resulted in a 0.6% total swing. If the trend continues, Trump doesn't win by a small margin, he takes it much more comfortably.

Even if the trend slows to 0.4% swing (per 2% counted), he still takes it.

The issue is that's now how this stuff works. If we continued to get batches like this , each vote nets Trump a smaller and smaller %