2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nice to see a dark blue Virginia!

[ProgressiveModerate]

[ProgressiveModerate]

Added AL.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Michigan! So fun to watch the map fill in with the shadings.

[ProgressiveModerate]

[ProgressiveModerate]

Woah. Massachusetts being 66-32 is something. We knew it was blue but that is BLUE

Maryland is going to be 65+ Dem too.. unreal.

Was this particular anti-Trump sentiment or was Biden just a good fit, or are both MA/MD just on a continued blueward trend?

The top 3 most educated states in the USA (highest % of Bachelor's Degrees) are....

(1)Massachusetts, (2)Colorado, (3)Maryland

Yep, if I turn up the education divide as high as it'll go in my model, MA and MD are 100.00% Biden, and CO becomes 99.62% Biden, and you overall get a map that is closer to the final result:

[ProgressiveModerate]

Probably due to rounding, but Biden is offically at a 4% lead on the Cook Popular Vote tracker.

Biden - 51.1%

Trump - 47.1%

In 2024 I'll remember to cut the national poll lead %. The avg was 8-10% going into election day and we're going to be less then half that.

The final 538 average was Biden +8.4, and he's probably going to wind up at about +4.5 or so when everything is counted.  This would be a miss of 3.9%, or about twice what it was in 2016.

Come 2024, the Democrat will probably be leading by about 10% in polls and this forum will still be split on who will win. Imagine telling someone in 2012 that the canidate who lead by 8.5% on average in the final polls only squeaked by in the EC at the end of the day

[ProgressiveModerate]

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah Obama won the tipping point state by 5.4%, Biden has won it by just 0.6%. Sadly, in the American system that's what matters.

The fact that in both 2012 and 2008 the tipping point state was Colorado feels very weird looking back at it. Colorado didn’t really feel like a crucial battleground either time, more emphasis was placed on OH, FL, VA and PA.

Both cycles it was considered a tossup though. CO was a relative new swing state; FL and OH were more sensational because they were the larger prizes, same with PA, and VA had gotten a lot of media. CO never really got that.

[ProgressiveModerate]

ProgressiveModerate: could you make Georgia (and presumably Arizona when it certifies) just a little bit darker?  That extremely light blue is almost indistinguishable from a non-certified state.

I could, but because the color is based off a function, states like ME, MN, and TX would also become darker. Your choice

[ProgressiveModerate]

Which is the best:

1.

2.

3.

4.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How's this?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another more complex gradient scale

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another more complex gradient scale

This is your best one by far!

Thanks. I just really hate it mathematically since the color scale is a piecewise function rather than one solid contiguous function.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The return of the horrid ultra-light blue color.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden did the impossible in NY!

[ProgressiveModerate]

The return of the horrid ultra-light blue color.

Ultra-light blue is not horrid, but you'd do everyone a favour if you could set blank states at a darker shade of grey.

Definately, but I'm a mean person so I won't

[ProgressiveModerate]

The return of the horrid ultra-light blue color.

Ultra-light blue is not horrid, but you'd do everyone a favour if you could set blank states at a darker shade of grey.

Definately, but I'm a mean person so I won't

The only mean thing you do is keeping spelling "definately" instead of "definitely".

(sorry for the IndyRep moment; it triggers me as much as it triggers him)

Sorry, I'll definately try to be better in the future, but no promises.

[ProgressiveModerate]

2020 swang map thus far.

D****t Florida!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Certified map. Will make a county map soon.

BTW, is this a good gradient for a county map?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Certified map. Will make a county map soon.

BTW, is this a good gradient for a county map?

I don't think there's anything wrong with the gradient, but not having outlines is a problem when you're trying to single out an individual county.

BTW, is that the 2000 Election?

Yep. good suggestion, I personally jkust don't like the lines because it makes the map look too busy IMO, but it is more practical to have the lines.

[ProgressiveModerate]

County map thus far; started with a few certified southern states

[ProgressiveModerate]

County map thus far. Let me know if you see any errors

[ProgressiveModerate]

Full map

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol, I was going back and looking through e-night post when people thought the Presidency was a tossup and the Senate was a sure thing for Rs.

Now the Presidency is safe Biden and the Senate is a tossup.