2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also, for those freaking out at FL Dem vs. GOP turnout, these are the numbers by day:

Net change (Dem minus GOP vote)

31,984
20,306
5,646
24,267
52,872
40,223
37,575
32,787
23,472
3,925
12,929
22,575
19,486
20,123
18,763
11,164
2,807
2,780
5,729
-18,094
-34,912
-37,049
-23,278

The last 4 days GOP voters have cut into the DEM lead but it's not like they're posting a huge advantage each day.

Didn't Republicans win the early vote totals last time anyways?

I think so, historically the GOP tends to do well in the FL early vote.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also doesn't AZ have a fairly significant number of registered Rs who vote D now?

I think so. Sinema was dealing with an R+6 electorate or smtg in 2018.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also doesn't AZ have a fairly significant number of registered Rs who vote D now?

I think so. Sinema was dealing with an R+6 electorate or smtg in 2018.

Am I correct in assuming that these figures actually refer to party registration? Rs would need a fairly significant lead here to be favored in actually winning AZ, wouldn't they?

Yes, that is correct.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also doesn't AZ have a fairly significant number of registered Rs who vote D now?

I think so. Sinema was dealing with an R+6 electorate or smtg in 2018.

And she won 12% of the Republican vote.

Fun fact; that’s a higher % than Tester won

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think what we could be witnessing right now is cannibalism of the Election Day vote.

Trump voters and Republicans may no longer wait to vote on Election Day and vote early instead.

This could result in lower Election Day turnout and lower turnout in general ...

That’s why the latest early in-person numbers tilt Republican.

On the other hand, I don’t really know what’s going on.

That’s what I suspect too. This whole notion that all these Republicans were just going to show up on Election Day never made any sense to me, Trumps base is very enthusiastic and many will vote early

[ProgressiveModerate]

Of course their is cannibalizing right now, but Democrats are also getting more non voters to the polls:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320697255993683971?s=21

That last line is pretty major for a state that was decided by around 90,000 votes in 2016.  

Definately. I have high hopes for AZ after Sinema won more votes than Clinton in the state during an off year, and that was in an R + 6 electorate. AZ has always been mildly competative, but this is the first cycle where it's actually being treated like a swing-state, which definately could affect turnout and therefore the electorate

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone know what's going on in Tennessee? Their #s are pretty incredible too.

Unfortunately, they don't break down the data in TN, so hard to say. Might just be that early voting has been more accessible there for a while now and they're pretty quick at counting ballots. TN is a state that also has traditionally bad turnout, simillar to TX, which means there's a lower bar for it to surpass 2016.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Excited to report that Wife and I voted today right before the polls closed in GA! Local media is reporting lines are getting longer all over metro ATL as the early voting window closes, so turnout here is probably only going to accelerate over the next few days.

Who do you think has the upper hand in the Presidential race in Georgia?

Assuming there are no shenanigans, Joe Biden at this point.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Congratulations Hawaii!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone know what percent of the Texas vote typically comes from the vast expanse of sparsely populated rural areas?  I guess with the cities and suburbs booming they'll make up a much smaller share this year.

There are ~29 million Texans as of 2019 estimate. ~21 million of them live in the triangle highlighted on the map, ~8 million of them live in the entire rest of the state.

Curious to see how the GOP is going to try to gerrymander the triangle (assuming they continue to hold the trifecta). They're literally running out of space to crack districts within the triangle itself, and we're already seeing how their current gerrymander is starting to backfire.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Congratulations TX!

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1322296655560015873

Missing is 2010, which was 31%

Makes Michigan even more likely to flip--Trump's margin was only 11k votes and Wayne county saw a Dems lose 77k votes over 2012--voters who simply didn't show up at all.

I don't think people are aware how much people left Detroit since 2012. Many of those are still registered in the city because Michigan has a notoriously bad voter registration database. Nate Cohn noted this in presidential primary:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1237852621794246656

Another why MI won’t necessarily flip before WI or PA

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1322296655560015873

Missing is 2010, which was 31%

Makes Michigan even more likely to flip--Trump's margin was only 11k votes and Wayne county saw a Dems lose 77k votes over 2012--voters who simply didn't show up at all.

I don't think people are aware how much people left Detroit since 2012. Many of those are still registered in the city because Michigan has a notoriously bad voter registration database. Nate Cohn noted this in presidential primary:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1237852621794246656

Another why MI won’t necessarily flip before WI or PA

Primaries don't indicate election turnout.

Definately very true, but in general Detroit is the main urban center/Democratic stronghold, and is loosing population pretty fast