Rate the Senate (two weeks to go)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lean D in this sort of national environment.

MA, RI, NJ, DE, OR, and IL are objectively safe.

VA, NH and NM are prolly safe in this national environment; unless somehow we narrow up to an even or R leaning Trump leaning national environment, they’re safe

MN Is likely D. Definately could be close, but I really have a hard time seeing how Smith loses after winning by 10% in a similar national environment, except this time the GOP basically isn’t spending any money. There has been a lack of polling on this, and the few polls we have had have been all over the place, but Smith always leads.

CO and AZ are both likely D gains, with CO being a slightly safe bet. If Ds lose these at this point, something has to go terribly wrong. Kelly won’t outperform by a crazy amount, but it’s ahead to see Trump losing AZ by like 2% or more at this point, so he should be fine.

ME is lean D, close to likely. The only thing working in Collins favor is incumbency, which seems to be less and less important. She trails in polls, Biden is on track to win ME by more than Hillary, and Gideon has raised more. She will almost certainly outperform Biden, but it’s hard to see her getting over the edge at this point, especially since her race has become so nationalized hence increasing polarization.

MI is lean D, also close to likely. Peters has underperformed in polls, and JJ is a good challenger, the issue is this is just not the right environment for James, though he might run ahead of Trump by a few %. Not impossible James win, but again, it would take a 2016-esk election.

NC is lean D (tipping point). Polling has been all over the place recently, but Cunningham always leads and keeps getting pretty close to 50% in polls, while Tillis struggles to get past the mid 40s, which is a bad place for an incumbent to be. The sexting scandal has seemed to die down. Right now, Biden seems like a favorite in NC, he’s consistently led in polls with or close to 50%, Biden would still win even in a 2016 error. Considering how many folks have voted in NC, it’s going to be hard, but definately not impossible, for Trump to close the gap, since over 40% of the vote have been cast in roughly a D + 10 national environment.

IA is pure tossup. Polling generally has Greenfield as a slight favorite, but Ernsts sometimes leads. As we all well know, undecides in IA tend to break pretty hard for Rs. Definately a race to watch.

GA(R) is lean R. Hard to see Osoff getting above 50% as he is likely to underperform Biden by a tad bit, and Biden seems to be in a dead heat with Trump right now in GA. If Biden wins and it goes to a runoff, it’ll be interesting to see what happens. Partisanship will prolly win out but Idk if it’ll be enough to put Osoff over the edge

GA(S) is lean R. R v R runoff seems unlikely at this point; it really depends upon weather it’s a Warnock v Collins runoff (Collins would prolly be favored) or a Warnock v Loeffler runoff (Loeffler would be favored)

MT is tilt R, close to lean. Partisanship will prolly win out, but unlike ME, this race hasn’t been as nationalized. It’s also interesting how both canidates are fairly popular, so at face value, Daines should win semi-easily, but polling has been somewhat close, and 2018 proved there were a lot of Dems in MT who just didn’t vote in 2016, (Tester actually got very little crossover appeal and still won 75k more votes than Clinton). My guess is Bullocks overperformance will be underwhelming, but at the same time Biden may come close.

TX is lean R. The early vote numbers are really good for Ds, and less reliable voters tend to be more partisan in their voting habits. Cornyn will outperform Biden but it won’t be much by the end of the day, considering how unknown he is and how large of a state TX is.

KS is lean R. I want Bollier to win but I’m afraid KS is too red

AK is lean R. I could see a very wide range of outcomes here, and polling has been all I’ve the place. Sullivan could easily win by 15% or Gross could pull an upset and win by a few %.

SC is lean R. I want Harrison to win, and I want him to, but the only way he can win Is by getting 47 or 48% and hoping 3rd party takes away a few % from Graham. Biden already needs to already be performing well on the top of the ticket too. It definately can flip, but it would take a lot to go right.

The rest aren’t worth talking about

Overall, lean D, Democrats should win at least 49 seats unless something goes terribly wrong, and there are a lot of opportunities for seat 50. However, certainly not a lock.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Senate is even Safer D than the presidency at this stage.

I would have to disagree with this. If they lose NC, Biden is only winning by 7% nationally, and partisanship wins out, they don't really have any other back ups. If one of the core 4 fails, they have to hope to win in Trump territory (not to mention AZ and NC could both still go to Trump on the Presidential level, though it's getting increasingly unlikely by the day). At least in the Presidential race, Biden would have to drop by over 6% in the national polling average (at least 0.5% loss a day) which seems pretty hard at this point. Only way he could lose is a last second disaster that more than cancels out the national environment for all the votes cast in already, and/or  a HUGE unprecedented error in polling, over 2 times the size of the 2016 polling error