IA-Monmouth: Biden+3/5

[ProgressiveModerate]

The senate numbers are underwhelming considering how well Biden is doing. IA is a weird state. Probably the only state where higher turnout hurts Democrats (alongside maybe MN, and some other northern white rural states taht are already safe)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why is Mr. Trump supposed to lose by a wider margin with a low turnout model? Usually that should benefit Dems. That said, IA will swing back hard, though I'm not sold on Biden winning IA.

Since when turnout is higher, you get ore less reliable voters who show up, who are more likely to vote with their Demographic nationally. Regular voters in IA skew uniquely Dem, so you would expect higher turnout to favor Rs. The reverse is true in a place like TX.