MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is way too early to be talking about 20220

[ProgressiveModerate]

I really don't get why Blunt is so unpopular. Anyways, MO's partisan lean, polarization, and the probable R tilt of the year all make this likely R.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Democrats should not waste money here, Likely/Safe D unless a Roy Moore situation emerges.

Republicans should have recruited Kurt Warner. No baggage, could appeal to Black voters in STL.

Ye I feel so confident in winning this seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Missouri is such a polarized state nowadays that none of this really matters. Even with Dem favourable turnout, getting Biden+ suburban margins, and slightly denting the GOP in rurals, Dems really don't come that close. A big chunk of the reason Kander kept it close in 2016 was because he got such insane overperformance in rural communities, something which is pretty much impossible for any Dem to replicate today.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In Missouri, the partisan R base is larger than the partisan D base. If there's a significant moderate candidate in the race, it helps Republicans.

I mean considering a good chunk of the D base in MO is Black voters and white liberals in both majour cities and Columbia, I’m not so sure how true this is. Most stereotypical “swingy white suburbs” lean right in the state, plus Springfield. There is also still some ancestral Dem support in rural communities though idk if you’d call these “swing voters”.

Furthermore, we have seen some recent cases of Dems dramatically outperforming Trump statewide with not any significant cases on the GOPs side despite Trump supposedly turning off moderate/swing voters