Bold Predictions for November

[ProgressiveModerate]

-MT is closer than it was in 2016, like Trump +8
-Trump's EC advantage grows significantly, with a bunch of states voting a few points to the right of the country
-Democrats lose the senate, and partisanship wins out, except in ME
-The house is closer than expected but Ds hold on
-Biden wins FL
-ME swings heavily in either direction
-MI votes to the left of MN, unless Klobs is the VP
-Polling underestimates Biden a bit
-Democrats have dissapointing results in TX
-NV votes simillar to AZ
-Someone dies in a competative house or senate race, causing a flip
-Biden flips NE-2, and it goes to him by a few points
-The October suprise seems bad for Ds and seems to help Trump but doesn't cahnge the outcome
-The economic recovery helps Trump a bit
-On election day, the weather is really crappy somewhere, causing a weird result
-States that didn't get hit as hard by COVID swing to Trump a bit
-NC votes to the right of FL
-No one on this forum will predict the exact outcome correctly

[ProgressiveModerate]

-No one on this forum will predict the exact outcome correctly

I feel like this one is statistically improbable. There's only a handful of realistic maps, and multiple people have probably already predicted the correct one.

In 2016 no one got the exact map, and whenever Trump is on the ballot, things are crazy. Right now our consensus prediction has 7 tossup states, and 2^7 = 128, meaning that juts from that alone, already, 128 outcomes are possible

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here are my bold predictions:

- Trump improves on WWC voters
- Biden gets Obama level AA turn-out
- Biden falls to get Hispanic voters to turn out


Causing this map to happen:

 

I actually think younger A voters are turning away from the Democratic party a bit

[ProgressiveModerate]

-No one on this forum will predict the exact outcome correctly

Bam!  There it is.

I really find that one hard to believe. There's only so many plausible maps, and I'm certain at least one person has guessed the correct map, even when just screwing around on 270towin

I actually remember searching for a while for the 2016 map shown anytime before the election, and I couldn't find even one example of it.

It probably wasn't an all-extensive search though.

In the 2016 prediction, no one got all the states correct; the closest person got NV wrong. I think one thing people tend to get wrong on this forums is that the whole country will swing in one party's favor universally, when that almost never happens. Hillary did decent in the sun belt, but really just underperformed in the rust belt. The map could be something we were pretty much expecting (like 2012) or unexpected (like 2016). Chances are, this time, the electoral map will be a bit less flimsy since we know the incumbent, and we know where they performed good and not so good in the previous election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

-MT is closer than it was in 2016, like Trump +8
-Trump's EC advantage grows significantly, with a bunch of states voting a few points to the right of the country
-Democrats lose the senate, and partisanship wins out, except in ME
-The house is closer than expected but Ds hold on
-Biden wins FL
-ME swings heavily in either direction
-MI votes to the left of MN, unless Klobs is the VP
-Polling underestimates Biden a bit
-Democrats have dissapointing results in TX
-NV votes simillar to AZ
-Someone dies in a competative house or senate race, causing a flip
-Biden flips NE-2, and it goes to him by a few points
-The October suprise seems bad for Ds and seems to help Trump but doesn't cahnge the outcome
-The economic recovery helps Trump a bit
-On election day, the weather is really crappy somewhere, causing a weird result
-States that didn't get hit as hard by COVID swing to Trump a bit
-NC votes to the right of FL
-No one on this forum will predict the exact outcome correctly

This aged poorly

[ProgressiveModerate]

New bold predictions:

-Biden wins TX, but at least one state on the 413 map goes to Trump
-Maine-Sen goes to Gideon by about the same amount as AZ-Sen goes to Kelly
-PA is the most likely rust belt state to flip
-Cornyn has a real scare
-Republicans call bull on the election saying Democrats did “too well”
-Partisanship wins out in most of KS, AK, MT, and SC senate races, but at least one is unexpectedly close
-Polling is largely pretty accurate and isn’t off universally in one canidate’s favor
-Gary Peters has somewhat of a scare
-NC-Sen votes in lockstep with NC on the Presidential level
-ACB will suddenly start seeing an increase in media
-At least one of MT, SC, and AK are closer than expected
-NE-2 easily goes to Biden
-Nunes loses or comes close to losing