Republicans are running a jacked, handsome 27 year old military veteran against an old democratic incumbent who hasn’t faced a serious challenge in decades. In addition, the Republican challenger has out raised DeFazio in Q1. Finally, he has a heroic backstory where he and 2 other friends stopped a terrorist attack, and Obama complimented him over it.
OR-04 was Hillary +0.1. This is the 3rd most likely flip in November 2020.
DeFazio has survived even the worst of R wave years. He outperforms Democratic canidates in the district. Furthermore, very few people actually care about if someone is a veteran, and it only solidifies people who were alreay gonna vote for him. Also, while being young may be appealing to some people, most people don't vote for someone based off of looks.
