MT Congressional Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

Both seats will be Republican if the independent redistricting commission is truly nonpartisan
(Though full disclosure - without hindsight, before the new district numbers came out for 2021-2031, I was pretty sure MT was going to stay at one at-large seat, not gain a second one, so I would've then gone with option 3.)

Yes, it seems Republicans on this board think that every redistricting decision everywhere should always favor Republicans.

It's almost like this weird per-conceived notion that redistricting is intended to be a benefit for Republicans exclusively.   It's really kinda strange.

TBF to make a D seat in MT, you kinda have to do a bit. I think a fair map is a lean R seat and safe R seat as that’s how most clean maps default.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bullock only lost MT-01 by a point. I think it is definitely winnable for Democrats downballot, though probably not in 2022. Likely R for 2022.

How was MT-01 in 2016 and 2012 at the presidential level?  It has a lot of ancestral D mining areas moving right but it also has Bozeman and Missoula which are the 2 largest counties by population and pretty clearly moving left.  Ancestral R Flathead is the 3rd largest and it has basically been stable since the Bush era.

Trump 2016 won MT-01 by 12 points.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/da5dab01-a99c-40bf-9fa0-17cd2d8a212e

Hmmm... so a pretty big Dem swing then, on par with what happened in GA statewide. Dems should seriously compete here, but it probably takes a 2026 or 2030 R president midterm to put them over the line.

It's back to where it was in 2012 FYI.

Yes, but that shows there is still hope for the future.  This isn't a CO-03 situation where it was only close-ish because of fading ancestral strength.

Uh I'd argue CO-3 was close-ish because of ski-resort communities rather than ancestral strength. The big hope for Dems here is really that Missoula continues to grow and blueify, alongside Butte and Bozeman to an extent; rural MT isn't coming back.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1598543160921280514?cxt=HHwWhMC-jaKila8sAAAA

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e89899d3-fc18-4e5b-99a6-9e77d1ac9211

Montana legislative maps just came out, should remove the GOP supermajorities they just picked up. 57 Trump 43 Biden seats.

Wtf happened? Did the tiebreaker have to choose between a D and an R gerrymander? That seems like some very aggressive cracking of Missoula and Bozeman to squeeze out a bunch of D-leaning seats. Gives me vibes of the MI State House map on steroids.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1598543160921280514?cxt=HHwWhMC-jaKila8sAAAA

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e89899d3-fc18-4e5b-99a6-9e77d1ac9211

Montana legislative maps just came out, should remove the GOP supermajorities they just picked up. 57 Trump 43 Biden seats.

Wtf happened? Did the tiebreaker have to choose between a D and an R gerrymander? That seems like some very aggressive cracking of Missoula and Bozeman to squeeze out a bunch of D-leaning seats. Gives me vibes of the MI State House map on steroids.

Given downballot results in Western MT, Democrats could plausibly control a chamber after a wave.  Wow!

Continues the theme of Democrats generally getting better legislative maps and Republicans generally getting better congressional maps from officially neutral processes.

But this feels like a pretty clear gerrymander; Dems are very purposefully unpacked. It wasn't like they just got lucky with key decisions in some key seats.