2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder if DeSantis is serious with his implicit veto threats. If so, could give Democrats more leverage; they'd probably want a veto override over a court map.

DeSantis has vetoed 1 or 2 unanimously passed bills before and nothing happened to them FYI.

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1480875684444749824
not related to redistricting.

Difference is that no matter what a congressional map is needed, and I think even DeSantis would prefer a slight GOP Gerry over a Court drawn map which could cause real problems for GOP incumbents, most notably Salazar who's district could become more Dem leaning (though not a guarantee, just a possiblity).

Also seems like that FL-15 is a very very narrow Biden seat possibly. Idk why the GOP legislature has an obsession with creating 3 swingy seats in Tampa, rather than a Likely Dem seat and Tossup (as is the current map)

That’s a good question. Does anybody have any insight on the 3 swingy Tampa seat obsession? It doesn’t seem to do much of anything

My 2 theories are they're either really cocky and think on average 3 swing seats would be a net benefit to them, or they want to get competitive seats from somewhere in case of a court challenge, and Tampa is the best place to do that as it doesn't come at the expense of any current Rs and political shifts have been pretty neutral.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Part of the issue too is DeSantis wants to rid FL-05 AND FL-10 of their black functionality. The Senate keeps both and the House keeps on FL-05. Maybe you can get away with eliminating one, but eliminating both is a really bad look, especially since FL-10 at least is a pretty natural COI

[ProgressiveModerate]

I hope for everyone's sake that FL-05 can be reduced to just Duval in 2030 while being functionally black.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly, I feel like DeSantis should've released his map first to set the tone. The release of relatively tame maps from the legislature has kind of set a tone that any map "worse" than them is gerrymandered. Heck, the House maps we're referring to as gerrymanders were prolly what many saw as the Dems best case in FL redistricting going into that. Had DeSantis released his map first, it would've set a different tone about FL redistricting and give the expectations of a gerrymandered map, and possibly might've caused the legislature to cave in a little bit to more R friendly map.

But ye, DeSantis's obsession with FL-05 is a bit overkill, especially when his plan was really sloppy in a lot of other areas of the state. My guess is that he's thinking about this more on a national level; successfully eliminating FL-05 would be a step in teh direction of weakening VRA as it pertains to majority minority districts and what triggers them, since most of the time triggers favor Dems. The more I think about it, that plan seemed to be to EXCLUSIVELY bring up the elimination of FL-05 and nothing else.

If Jacksonville goes full Atlanta this decade in terms of shifts though, FL-05 may actually end up kind becoming a Dem pack of sorts, though Tallahassee seems like it's no longer going to be enough to support a competitive FL-02 on it's own.

This going to be really interesting to watch.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Jacksonville goes full Atlanta this decade in terms of shifts though, FL-05 may actually end up kind becoming a Dem pack of sorts, though Tallahassee seems like it's no longer going to be enough to support a competitive FL-02 on it's own.

I think if Jacksonville becomes like Atlanta, it will be the suburb-like parts of Jacksonville (south, east, Jacksonville Beach) that swings left, making FL-04 competitive rather than making FL-05 a pack.

When I say become like Atlanta, I was moreso alluding to rapid black growth and gentrification, less so left shifting burbs as Jacksonville has many retirees, not as high salary buisness type jobs

Should've clarafied mb

[ProgressiveModerate]

Attempt at a fair FL map that attempts to mix things up. Florida is hard because of it's unique shape, annoying precincts, and extremely rural swamp areas next to dense cities. Overall, it's ok but I wish there were more competitive districts (map above is shaded based on 2020 Pres).

FL-17 stretching across the from the gulf to the Atlantic is not ideal, but was a consequence of shifting everything in the Miami Metro South to create a 4th Hispanic seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting 15 looks like a Clinton district.

Honestly, I kind of think that they made all 3 seats extremely narrowly Trump just for the optics of being able to increase the number of Trump seats on the map, even though at the end of the day the difference between a Trump + 0.2 and Biden + 0.2 seat is meaningless.

I personally really want a FL-05 contained to just Duval so glad to see it come up. It's a black functioning seat that makes more sense from a COI standpoint and is visually better.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting 15 looks like a Clinton district.

Honestly, I kind of think that they made all 3 seats extremely narrowly Trump just for the optics of being able to increase the number of Trump seats on the map, even though at the end of the day the difference between a Trump + 0.2 and Biden + 0.2 seat is meaningless.

I personally really want a FL-05 contained to just Duval so glad to see it come up. It's a black functioning seat that makes more sense from a COI standpoint and is visually better.

What's your opinion on the 20th? It arguably could be chopped down to just Broward but then the media will just go on a rant about how racist Florida is removing black incumbents.

Def not my favorite seat either; I think it should ideally become just Broward at this point. For a variety of reasons I think that is unlikely to happen though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The only really “gerrymandered” parts are what they did with FL-07 and pushing FL-26 southwards, but both of those were pretty light. Def a good map overall

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fair chance FL senate passes the House 8019 plan, as the Senate President says it is constitutional:

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1499573120495144980?s=20&t=568yuyCJ0yFmCN...

I wish we could have the House's Tampa config with the Senate's Orlando, seems like that's not happening though. Duval based FL-05 will certainly be interesting.

On a sidenote the House's map has 4 Clinton-Trump yet zero Trump-Biden seats which is quite interesting. I wonder if FL-26 could be in danger for the GOP if 2020 turns out to be an exception? It physically looks very similar but gets quite a bit bluer.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Made a maximally agressive (yet somewhat clean, though horrible COI) Republican gerrymandering which gives Ds only 6 safe D seats + another Lean D seat in Miami. This map assumes bad trends for Dems in the greater Miami area, though the only seats to ever backfire are the 3 cuban seats

[ProgressiveModerate]

Made a maximally agressive (yet somewhat clean, though horrible COI) Republican gerrymandering which gives Ds only 6 safe D seats + another Lean D seat in Miami. This map assumes bad trends for Dems in the greater Miami area, though the only seats to ever backfire are the 3 cuban seats

link for the map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9bb39061-3611-4da8-ad34-8c91a14e91c2

[ProgressiveModerate]

Made a maximally agressive (yet somewhat clean, though horrible COI) Republican gerrymandering which gives Ds only 6 safe D seats + another Lean D seat in Miami. This map assumes bad trends for Dems in the greater Miami area, though the only seats to ever backfire are the 3 cuban seats

Interesting map, didn’t think this was possible. Though I feel like it is also a massive dummymander, as Dems could easily win 15-17 seats in even a mildly D-leaning year. It’s almost a competitive districts gerrymander tbh, just with an R tilt in all of those districts.

I would agree this isn't the most solid gerrymander but 15-17 seems extremely optimistic and would likely take a Tsunami and then some.

Say Dems win all 7 Biden seats as well as the 3 Cuban seats. That's only 10. The Trump + 8 Jacksonville seat could flip because of unfavorable trends in the area, but that is certainly not a guarantee. The 2 non-Cuban Republican leaning Miami based seats are still Trump + 8 and Trump + 9, and they haven't been necessarily been going Dems direction. In other words, Dems winning this FL-18 would be no different than the likelyhood they win the current FL-18 (possible, but unlikely). After that, there are really no seats that scream Dem pickup opportunity barring something very unexpected.

So many 12 D seats as best which is probably the number they'd get in a fair map in a normal year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Made a maximally agressive (yet somewhat clean, though horrible COI) Republican gerrymandering which gives Ds only 6 safe D seats + another Lean D seat in Miami. This map assumes bad trends for Dems in the greater Miami area, though the only seats to ever backfire are the 3 cuban seats

link for the map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9bb39061-3611-4da8-ad34-8c91a14e91c2

Might as well make the Puerto Rican seat a swing seat as well.

Damn.

Sometimes swing seats can actually be useful in a gerrymander. I kinda went in with the assumption Orlando had to be 2 safe D but you proved me wrong

[ProgressiveModerate]

So if this map ends up in court is it pretty much guaranteed the court chooses the legislative map?

While the legislature's map is better than DeSantis's by pretty much every metric, a fair map would likely have 3 dedicated Orlando seats; the current FL-07 for instance should be pushed further into Orlando rather than pushed out and instead having the 11th randomly dip in.

Furthermore, FL-27's replacement should prolly be a narrow Biden seat, there was definitely some mingling around the edges there, though tbf both the current FL-24 and FL-27 are slightly underpopulated as is.

Those are really the 2 main issues I see with the legislative map. I know everyone here has their own opinions about what should be done in north Florida, more specifically FL-05, but the more I think about it the more I realize there is no great option. The cleanest option would crack Jacksonville's black community and make no black opportunity seat. While a Duval based seat is compact, it forces FL-04 to be a bit funny looking even though from a COI standpoint it's better. And the current FL-05 stretching out to Tallahassee is the most functional but def the ugliest and questionable from a COI standpoint.

A reminder that courts haven't been as hackish as some on Atlas had thought. For instance, the liberal MN court gave the GOP a pretty good map whereas WI conservative court gave Dems a good config considering WI's unfortunate geography for Dems. Ironically, Maureen O'Connor seems to be pushing for a light Dem gerry of Ohio's maps without realizing it.

Also, being a bit nitpicky I'd try to make FL-14 more centered around Tampa's minority communities as currently it's a bit off center; I perfer the current FL-14 config better though overall the House's Tampa config is pretty good.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So if this map ends up in court is it pretty much guaranteed the court chooses the legislative map?

Maybe they'll pick it anyways but who knows. Doesn't seem like a guarantee considering how courts have acted in most states.

Ironically, Maureen O'Connor seems to be pushing for a light Dem gerry of Ohio's maps without realizing it.

How? I don't really like the notion that maximizing partisan fairness somehow counts as a "Dem gerrymander." The state constitution literally mandates it.

Because she’s using direct proportionality as the main standard while Ohio is a moderately lopsided state. Get much more partisanly extreme; a proportionality argument wouldn’t fly in Illinois for instance

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting that FL state Legs have yet to send the maps to DeSantis. Maybe they are just waiting the court to take over?

Could be discussions or bribery for other DeSantis priorities or vice versa. There's some Everglades deregulation bjll Simpson supports but DeSantis opposes.

I always find it hard to understand why people like Simpson want to fight with DeSantis about redistricting. What can they gain? They can simply pass the DeSantismander. How many voters will vote against him because of this? Passing a Dem-friendly map and pissing off R base, or passing DeSantismander and pissing off D base, I would rather avoid being called a RINO. Even if he is afraid of litigations, they are not directed against him personally, and he does not need to pay the legal fee from his own pocket. But fighting with DeSantis can harm his political career deeply.

My guess is he worries a legal challenge would upset a lot of R incumbents in the US House in Florida, and the House is the maximum level of aggression they can safely get away with. Notice how the House map doesn't screw over nor double bunk a single R incumbent whereas DeSantis's map would make severl incumbent Rs very unhappy (though i don't think it double bunks anyone).

Also from a legal standpoint, the DeSantis's map risks far more by significantly diluting or outright eliminating 3 of the 4 black seats in the state. If the Court were to overturn a map and use a special master, there are several R incumbents who would likely get non-desirable seats either just from potential double-bunking or because their seat could become a Biden leaning one.

The furthest I could see the House going is the current map they passed plus making Tampa more favorable since there's less VRA risk there and there aren't really any R incumbents to worry about plus that's where the additional open seat should be added.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting that FL state Legs have yet to send the maps to DeSantis. Maybe they are just waiting the court to take over?

Could be discussions or bribery for other DeSantis priorities or vice versa. There's some Everglades deregulation bjll Simpson supports but DeSantis opposes.

I always find it hard to understand why people like Simpson want to fight with DeSantis about redistricting. What can they gain? They can simply pass the DeSantismander. How many voters will vote against him because of this? Passing a Dem-friendly map and pissing off R base, or passing DeSantismander and pissing off D base, I would rather avoid being called a RINO. Even if he is afraid of litigations, they are not directed against him personally, and he does not need to pay the legal fee from his own pocket. But fighting with DeSantis can harm his political career deeply.

My guess is he worries a legal challenge would upset a lot of R incumbents in the US House in Florida, and the House is the maximum level of aggression they can safely get away with. Notice how the House map doesn't screw over nor double bunk a single R incumbent whereas DeSantis's map would make severl incumbent Rs very unhappy (though i don't think it double bunks anyone).

Also from a legal standpoint, the DeSantis's map risks far more by significantly diluting or outright eliminating 3 of the 4 black seats in the state. If the Court were to overturn a map and use a special master, there are several R incumbents who would likely get non-desirable seats either just from potential double-bunking or because their seat could become a Biden leaning one.

The furthest I could see the House going is the current map they passed plus making Tampa more favorable since there's less VRA risk there and there aren't really any R incumbents to worry about plus that's where the additional open seat should be added.

Fl 10th is really a stretch to call a black seat. its 30% on the senate map vs 28.5% on DeSantis's map.

Not protected but still functional, especially since the black population in Orlando is increasing pretty fast. It's just bad optics to crack the dilute Orlando's black community when they can clearly be kept together in one seat.

Even though DeSantis's topline % isn't that much less, the black share in the Dem primary goes way down, significantly impairing it's functionality.

Again, it isn't officially protected, but eliminating FL-05, making FL-10 less functional, and reducing the black % in FL-20 just looks really bad.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting that FL state Legs have yet to send the maps to DeSantis. Maybe they are just waiting the court to take over?

Could be discussions or bribery for other DeSantis priorities or vice versa. There's some Everglades deregulation bjll Simpson supports but DeSantis opposes.

I always find it hard to understand why people like Simpson want to fight with DeSantis about redistricting. What can they gain? They can simply pass the DeSantismander. How many voters will vote against him because of this? Passing a Dem-friendly map and pissing off R base, or passing DeSantismander and pissing off D base, I would rather avoid being called a RINO. Even if he is afraid of litigations, they are not directed against him personally, and he does not need to pay the legal fee from his own pocket. But fighting with DeSantis can harm his political career deeply.

My guess is he worries a legal challenge would upset a lot of R incumbents in the US House in Florida, and the House is the maximum level of aggression they can safely get away with. Notice how the House map doesn't screw over nor double bunk a single R incumbent whereas DeSantis's map would make severl incumbent Rs very unhappy (though i don't think it double bunks anyone).

Also from a legal standpoint, the DeSantis's map risks far more by significantly diluting or outright eliminating 3 of the 4 black seats in the state. If the Court were to overturn a map and use a special master, there are several R incumbents who would likely get non-desirable seats either just from potential double-bunking or because their seat could become a Biden leaning one.

The furthest I could see the House going is the current map they passed plus making Tampa more favorable since there's less VRA risk there and there aren't really any R incumbents to worry about plus that's where the additional open seat should be added.

Fl 10th is really a stretch to call a black seat. its 30% on the senate map vs 28.5% on DeSantis's map.

Not protected but still functional, especially since the black population in Orlando is increasing pretty fast. It's just bad optics to crack the dilute Orlando's black community when they can clearly be kept together in one seat.

Even though DeSantis's topline % isn't that much less, the black share in the Dem primary goes way down, significantly impairing it's functionality.

Again, it isn't officially protected, but eliminating FL-05, making FL-10 less functional, and reducing the black % in FL-20 just looks really bad.

Its not cracking the community. Its just adding white liberals.

DeSantis's map leaves out a few heavily black precincts to the West, though yes, it isn't a crack down the middle. The white/Hispanic liberals it add would be much better suited for a Seminole based seat like the current FL-07. This isn't a case where this is the most logical COI, especially since you're going to the whole other side of the city. Orlando is best suited with 3 seats, and putting black voters with white liberals is not justified IMO.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/29/politics/desantis-vetoes-florida-congressional-map/index.html

Rodrigues, who was previously dismissive of DeSantis' position, now says it warrants consideration. He also said recent US Supreme Court rulings regarding redistricting plans passed in other states may also play a factor. Still, he didn't know how the state House and Senate would bridge the gap between their approved map and the one DeSantis wants. Already, they had made significant concessions to DeSantis, passing a map that shifts District 5 east to create a new Black access district around Jacksonville.
"The governor has a legitimate point," Rodrigues said. "Let's see if there's a way the map can be drawn to address it."

Why not just use the House's compromise Orlando, use a Tampa config similar to the current one (i.e. 1 swing in Pinellas and 1 safish CD in Hilsboro and no other winnable D seats.), and a swingy Duval seat that still keeps the black community whole? That's probably the furthest you could stretch things before the risk of being overturned by the court skyrockets.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1511431206524530688

Isn't this basically a recipe for even more intractable open warfare between DeSantis and the legislature? Seems like a dumb move on his part.

Perhaps, although MCI is the same guy that told us that DeSantis was just appealing to Maga Chuds. I don't see why someone who just wants a few thousand primary voters would burn down their entire state party over this.

DeSantis is appealing to the national base whereas the FLGOP is appealing on a more local level. Generally, people don't like the idea of gerrymandering until the argument becomes it helps my side, and then folks are all for it. DeSantis is trying to extend the argument to "it helps our side so lets do it".

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1513637468398043153?cxt=HHwWooCy6cDQwoEqAAAA

Seems to be taking the idea from the house map a bit further.

This is a smart idea on the legistlature's part, especially since this really gives good reason for the primary map to be overturned if the legistlature is basically conceding it could have legal issues.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah I agree with what most folks here have said so far.

The issue with this map isn't that it terribly violates COIs. For what it's worth compared to a lot of other maps, it's relatively clean and COIs get into highly subjective area. This would probably be the weakest argument in court.

The second argument would be partisanship. This is where things become a bit more iffy. The median seat test of the median seat usually being 5ish points to the right of the state isn't great for a state with 28 districts but isn't terrible either. However, the median seat test alone isn't a whole lot. The efficiency gap is def pretty favoable to Rs. However, partisan symmetry isn't that bad outside of 2020 Pres considering most Dems at least win FL-27 and FL-28 narrowly while doing worse in many of the "suburban" lean R seats like FL-15 and FL-07. 2020 is really the only election where the partisan symmetry is really bad.

The third and strongest argument is what the map does with black voters and the general hypocracy. If one wants to make the argument the FL-05 snake should be eliminated, then why was a likely black functioning based within Duval created? Furthermore, why was FL-20 kept as is rather than becoming Ft Lauderdale based? It's just as much of a racial gerrymander as FL-05 if you're arguing FL-05 is illegal. Furthermore, why was the black community within Orlando split when FL-10 was never a problem in the first place? Also wouldn't the new FL-14 crossing the bay go against this ideology of prioritizing COIs and compactness above minority representation. This is the hypocrisy the GOP will have to defend and so we'll see how they do.

Also just gotta say compared to a lot of GOP gerries, DeSantis is really betting that current coalitions don't change much and/or that the GOP will continue to improve in Florida. That's quite a lot of Trump < 10 districts, all of which are pretty unique. Still a net benefit to the GOP but still slightly less than maximal.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah I agree with what most folks here have said so far.

The issue with this map isn't that it terribly violates COIs. For what it's worth compared to a lot of other maps, it's relatively clean and COIs get into highly subjective area. This would probably be the weakest argument in court.

The second argument would be partisanship. This is where things become a bit more iffy. The median seat test of the median seat usually being 5ish points to the right of the state isn't great for a state with 28 districts but isn't terrible either. However, the median seat test alone isn't a whole lot. The efficiency gap is def pretty favoable to Rs. However, partisan symmetry isn't that bad outside of 2020 Pres considering most Dems at least win FL-27 and FL-28 narrowly while doing worse in many of the "suburban" lean R seats like FL-15 and FL-07. 2020 is really the only election where the partisan symmetry is really bad.

The third and strongest argument is what the map does with black voters and the general hypocracy. If one wants to make the argument the FL-05 snake should be eliminated, then why was a likely black functioning based within Duval created? Furthermore, why was FL-20 kept as is rather than becoming Ft Lauderdale based? It's just as much of a racial gerrymander as FL-05 if you're arguing FL-05 is illegal. Furthermore, why was the black community within Orlando split when FL-10 was never a problem in the first place? Also wouldn't the new FL-14 crossing the bay go against this ideology of prioritizing COIs and compactness above minority representation. This is the hypocrisy the GOP will have to defend and so we'll see how they do.

Also just gotta say compared to a lot of GOP gerries, DeSantis is really betting that current coalitions don't change much and/or that the GOP will continue to improve in Florida. That's quite a lot of Trump < 10 districts, all of which are pretty unique. Still a net benefit to the GOP but still slightly less than maximal.

I still think FL 20th is quite bad and should have been chopped to Broward only FWIW although I do think Palm Beach AA's and Broward AA's are decently close enough. After all South Florida is just one giant super metro.  It's still bad although closer to IL 4th I guess? . Infact FL Rs could have done what IL Dems did. It's still going to be fun to see how DeSantis explains that away. Really no logic behind it in the end.

Also One thing to note is the current map in Orlando for FL 10th is 28.5% black while the new one is 28.3% black. Really hard to argue this is splitting the Orlando black community .

And yes there isn't really much justification to crossing the bay. It's clearly the ringer for unfair partisan advantage. To be fair the way it looks is actually fairly compact to a normie but its obviously a gerrymander.  The best argument I have for splitting St.Petersburg off is that Pinellas county outside of St.Pete is a fairly uniform area of densely populated suburbia and St.Pete is the odd area of the county. This actually is true but the idea of crossing the bay is lol. It definetely is just a hope that the court lets it slide similar to how Oregon Dems crossed the Cascades by arguing that Bend is different from the rest of the East.

Overall you are correct in that the map although very aggressive is actually somewhat similar to what Nevada D's did. They maximized the ceiling/floor in a good/neutral year but didn't max out the gerrymander such as by going all the way to Reno which makes it riskier in a bad year.

Ye pretty much agree with your entire post. St. Peters def has a different vibe than the rest of Pinellas and that can be backed up racially and politically but crossing the bay is one of the 10 sins of redistricting (alongside splitting Bucks and having Minneapolis and St. Paul in one, and yes, crossing the cascades).

As for FL-10, I'd make the argument the black population should naturally increase given FL-10 had a 26% growth and is overpopulated by 14%. That may not seem like a lot, but the fact the black population stayed basically the same shows how DeSantis's map shaves off both some of the white and black communities in the district.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah I agree with what most folks here have said so far.

The issue with this map isn't that it terribly violates COIs. For what it's worth compared to a lot of other maps, it's relatively clean and COIs get into highly subjective area. This would probably be the weakest argument in court.

The second argument would be partisanship. This is where things become a bit more iffy. The median seat test of the median seat usually being 5ish points to the right of the state isn't great for a state with 28 districts but isn't terrible either. However, the median seat test alone isn't a whole lot. The efficiency gap is def pretty favoable to Rs. However, partisan symmetry isn't that bad outside of 2020 Pres considering most Dems at least win FL-27 and FL-28 narrowly while doing worse in many of the "suburban" lean R seats like FL-15 and FL-07. 2020 is really the only election where the partisan symmetry is really bad.

The third and strongest argument is what the map does with black voters and the general hypocracy. If one wants to make the argument the FL-05 snake should be eliminated, then why was a likely black functioning based within Duval created? Furthermore, why was FL-20 kept as is rather than becoming Ft Lauderdale based? It's just as much of a racial gerrymander as FL-05 if you're arguing FL-05 is illegal. Furthermore, why was the black community within Orlando split when FL-10 was never a problem in the first place? Also wouldn't the new FL-14 crossing the bay go against this ideology of prioritizing COIs and compactness above minority representation. This is the hypocrisy the GOP will have to defend and so we'll see how they do.

Also just gotta say compared to a lot of GOP gerries, DeSantis is really betting that current coalitions don't change much and/or that the GOP will continue to improve in Florida. That's quite a lot of Trump < 10 districts, all of which are pretty unique. Still a net benefit to the GOP but still slightly less than maximal.

I still think FL 20th is quite bad and should have been chopped to Broward only FWIW although I do think Palm Beach AA's and Broward AA's are decently close enough. After all South Florida is just one giant super metro.  It's still bad although closer to IL 4th I guess? . Infact FL Rs could have done what IL Dems did. It's still going to be fun to see how DeSantis explains that away. Really no logic behind it in the end.

Also One thing to note is the current map in Orlando for FL 10th is 28.5% black while the new one is 28.3% black. Really hard to argue this is splitting the Orlando black community .

And yes there isn't really much justification to crossing the bay. It's clearly the ringer for unfair partisan advantage. To be fair the way it looks is actually fairly compact to a normie but its obviously a gerrymander.  The best argument I have for splitting St.Petersburg off is that Pinellas county outside of St.Pete is a fairly uniform area of densely populated suburbia and St.Pete is the odd area of the county. This actually is true but the idea of crossing the bay is lol. It definetely is just a hope that the court lets it slide similar to how Oregon Dems crossed the Cascades by arguing that Bend is different from the rest of the East.

Overall you are correct in that the map although very aggressive is actually somewhat similar to what Nevada D's did. They maximized the ceiling/floor in a good/neutral year but didn't max out the gerrymander such as by going all the way to Reno which makes it riskier in a bad year.

Ye pretty much agree with your entire post. St. Peters def has a different vibe than the rest of Pinellas and that can be backed up racially and politically but crossing the bay is one of the 10 sins of redistricting (alongside splitting Bucks and having Minneapolis and St. Paul in one, and yes, crossing the cascades).

As for FL-10, I'd make the argument the black population should naturally increase given FL-10 had a 26% growth and is overpopulated by 14%. That may not seem like a lot, but the fact the black population stayed basically the same shows how DeSantis's map shaves off both some of the white and black communities in the district.

IIRC the original senate proposal had it like 30%. In the end this is extremely easy to argue against in court.

30 is about the highest it can realistically go froma  topline perspective unless you reach up into Sanford, but DeSantis's map knocks it out of a plurality in a Dem primary which is also important. A 30% black seat that's a D pack is very different than a 30% black seat with a lot of white Rs.