2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at a fair AZ map. 3 and 7 are majority Hispanic.

To me, it seems like AZ-1 which is currently in pretty much the bluest possible config is going to become a Trump district while AZ-6 is likely to be pulled into Pheonix and get bluer and possibly flip to Biden.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like they kinda split up Hispanics in downtown Pheonix.

Obviously things are going to change, but if this were the final map Dems should be quite happen. It seems like most maps naturally fall to 5D-4R on 2020 numbers unless you violate VRA or max pack blue Pheonix, but the competative and rapidly D trending 5th is quite good news for them as by the end of the decade it should be pretty blue unless current trends suddenly stall or reverse.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly I was hoping to see a map with more highly competitive seats. To me it looks like AZ-1 would be the only contested seat in a normal cycle

[ProgressiveModerate]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

Eh that’s a stretch. Seems like in this map AZ-7 could fall but only if everything goes wrong for Dems; 3 and 4 are safe. On the flip side 8 and 2 could fall for the GOP in a bad cycle so i would argue it’s pretty fair in terms of partinsahip, I’m just disappointed they didn’t make more highly competitive seats

[ProgressiveModerate]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

Eh that’s a stretch. Seems like in this map AZ-7 could fall but only if everything goes wrong for Dems; 3 and 4 are safe. On the flip side 8 and 2 could fall for the GOP in a bad cycle so i would argue it’s pretty fair in terms of partinsahip, I’m just disappointed they didn’t make more highly competitive seats

I assume this is the map, right? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/arizona/draft_7_1/

4 sure doesn't look safe lol, it's literally an even PVI

Dang your right it looks safer than it is. Prolly becomes safe by the end of decade and Biden prolly won it by about 8 or so in 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

Eh that’s a stretch. Seems like in this map AZ-7 could fall but only if everything goes wrong for Dems; 3 and 4 are safe. On the flip side 8 and 2 could fall for the GOP in a bad cycle so i would argue it’s pretty fair in terms of partinsahip, I’m just disappointed they didn’t make more highly competitive seats

I assume this is the map, right? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/arizona/draft_7_1/

4 sure doesn't look safe lol, it's literally an even PVI

Dang your right it looks safer than it is. Prolly becomes safe by the end of decade and Biden prolly won it by about 8 or so in 2020.

We should be careful assuming that 2020 trends will carry out indefinitely. Maybe they will, or maybe they'll actually slide back.

Either way, this map is awful even for a state that's R-leaning.

Nah this map seems pretty fair overall. 5D-4R on 2020 Pres. 1 would be about in line with AZ with AZ-6 slightly to the left and AZ-8 slightly to the right. 3 kinda is a bit of a max D tbf though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any major news coming from the Commission as of late?

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1469436378660458502

538 makes it look like a super GOP gerrymander.

Yeah 538 PVIs for Arizona are misleading because Biden outperformed many by 5-10% in 2020 meaning even a seat 538 calls “lean R” could have been a narrow Biden seat.

Map 8.1 seems 5-4 Trump  with 1 being marginal for Biden and 6 narrowly going for Trump.

In 8.2 is also 5-4 Trump with Biden winning 8 and 4 relatively easily but Trump holding 6 and 1

8.3 seems 5-4 Biden with Biden winning 4, 6, and 1, and all 3 including 1 voting to the left of the state in 2020. Even AZ-8 was prolly reasonably close and Kelly may have come very close to winning it.

8.4 is simillar to 8.3 except 1 seems like it was extremely close, 8 is shored up, but 10 gets closer.

Important to remember that again 2020 Pres is not represented well by 538 PVI, and also the current map is kinda a slight Dem Gerry. I do appreciate though how they largely kept 8 and 5 in the Phoenix. metro and didn’t stretch them into exurbs or rurals.

Overall these maps are fairer than people give them credit for.

I also do appreciate how they made quite a lot of competitive districts something which is overall lacking nationally

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any major news coming from the Commission as of late?

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1469436378660458502

538 makes it look like a super GOP gerrymander.

Is there a DRA link for this? Just as they always do, Democrats are just whining about how everything is supposedly so unfair and rigged against them. But I bet at least four, maybe even five, districts voted to the left of the state.

https://twitter.com/AveryTheComrade/status/1469432460333117446

4 Biden with a Trump +0 district.

https://twitter.com/AveryTheComrade/status/1469440105764909056

Adjusting the population will make it a Biden district.

Lol I always forget how tiny 8 can be and still be very R. Same goes for 5.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Overall these maps are fairer than people give them credit for.

One thing I don't like that the commission is doing is that it's obviously splitting Tucson but it seems to be intentionally giving all the bluest parts to the third district. There are a bunch of pretty white but very blue precincts in Tucson which are being packed into the third right now. I think it would improve the map significantly if those precincts were given to the second district; that way, AZ-02 is made more competitive and AZ-03 is more Hispanic.

Ye 3 feels kinda like a Dem max pack, but tbf some small decisions being made to cancel out Ds geography edge seems appropriate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah, this is obviously rigged for the GOP as much as (or more than) it was rigged for the Dems in 2010. Both are bad, of course, but making a competitive state 6-2-1 is especially egregious.

How is it 6 2 1?


Arizona suburban Ds barely ran behind Biden.

I'm looking at PVI, which is the only actually objective metric we have. I had a whole quote pyramid in another thread about all the subjective guesswork nonsense people put into their analysis of these maps and I'm not relitigating this point again.

538 PVI seems to assume AZ is an R + 8 state or so rather than a true tossup. 6R - 3D on average in an R + 8 state seems p fair. I think the bigger argument would be that in 2016 Pres when AZ was close it was 7R - 2D which definately isn’t fair.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fun fact: 8/9 districts on the current draft map go into Maricopa County.

Honestly because Maricopa is so large most reasonable maps have 7 to 8 districts going into the county but just weird to think about.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the chances this horrific 6-2-1 map passes?

It's literally 5-4 Biden

Two of the districts were barely Biden and the third only went for Biden by six.  This would probably be a 7-2 Republican map in 2022.

In a truly fair map, the 6th should probably be a bit bluer, bit if in 2022 Arizona votes something like R + 8 or 10 for generic ballot, a 6R - 3D delegation seems pretty reasonable.

[ProgressiveModerate]

2020 Pres data on the new map. Hillary lost the 1rst and 6th in 2016 but Kyrsten and Kelly both carried the 8th.

Overall I like this map because it's reasonably compact, good from COIs standpoint, and is fair overall in terms of partisanship. Only seats 9 and 3 are truly safe over the course of the decade; Republicans slipping in the suburbs could cost them both 8 and 5 whereas a Dem collapse with Hispanic could risk the 7th.

I really hope the Commission can figure out what they want to do with Pinal County though. Right now, it really feels like Pinal County just ended up being "leftovers" from a bunch of districts and ensuring district 1 could connect to Native Reservations right below Pheonix.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I really hope the Commission can figure out what they want to do with Pinal County though. Right now, it really feels like Pinal County just ended up being "leftovers" from a bunch of districts and ensuring district 1 could connect to Native Reservations right below Pheonix.

TBH, I don't get the point of the new AZ-06 having that weird arm into Pinal. I feel like that part can be shifted to AZ-07, and AZ-06 can instead take in more of Tucson.

The issue is if you switch them around it starts to risk AZ-7 from a VRA perspective



This map keeps AZ-7 at about the same Hispanic %, but shifts it slightly right (AZ-6 hence shifts left). This map directly splits downtown Tuson though

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol so we’re back to the GOP’s preferred map. This looks pretty simillar to the 8.1 from last week

Also if it just me or has there been like 10 “starting point” maps so far

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bro that map sucks. If 6 is gonna become swingy then making a swingy 8th is only fair

[ProgressiveModerate]

Neuberg does seem to want to make the East Tucson seat more competitive based on the current hearing

What does that mean? It’s already 50-50 on 2020 Pres basically, so does it flip Biden? Seems like the main thing the commission wanted to deal with when I last checked was the CD-6 arm in Pinal but that was very heated

[ProgressiveModerate]

Neuberg does seem to want to make the East Tucson seat more competitive based on the current hearing

What does that mean? It’s already 50-50 on 2020 Pres basically, so does it flip Biden? Seems like the main thing the commission wanted to deal with when I last checked was the CD-6 arm in Pinal but that was very heated

Well they are using a composite so that's why it would be more D as the one in 12.1 is like R+4 according to the composite.

Yeah having it go to Biden only seems fair, especially since AZ-01 is already narrow as is. Ngl, I was kinda hoping 8 would become more competitive, but at that point one could argue the AZ map favors Dems

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems on the commission are really salty about the map today

[ProgressiveModerate]

So it looks like we'll end up with:
2 Safe Dem (AZ-03, AZ-07)
1 Likely/Lean Dem (AZ-04)
2 left-trending Tossups that narrowly went to Biden (AZ-01, AZ-06)
2 Likely R (AZ-02, AZ-08)
2 Safe R (AZ-05, AZ-09)

Given the partisanship of the state, it seems very fair to me.

This sounds pretty fair to me

IMO there should be a lean R seat, but otherwise it’s a decent map

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hypothetical commission map had AZ gained a 10th district based on what they actually did. My guess the new district would've been another Hispanic seat in Pheonix, and 3 wouldn't have that weird little stick into Pheonix to grab extra Hispanics. The new 6th is prolly slightly bluer being pulled more in Tucson. However, the new Hispanic seat would push the 1rst and 4th outwards a bit making them slightly redder. The map would've almost certainly been a 5-5 breakdown on 2020. The functionality of the new 2nd as a Native opportunity seat could be increased since it could shed some R rurals and increase Native % at the same time. The new 9th would be able to be a bit less awkward and not have to grab Pheonix suburbs but could be more exclusively exurban/rural.

Kinda hoping AZ gains a 10th seat in 2030 which it seems on track to do unless it really underperforms badly again, and population shifts reverse.

10 seats seem slightly better from a COI perspective IMO, but maybe that just me.