2020 New York Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like a NY-11 Staten Island - Lower Manhattan District could theoretically be won by Sarah Davis type Republicans if partisanship was reduced and they played all their cards right (not gonna happen) as it seems like a very high-propensity, somewhat diverse, pragmatic professional family sort of district. They'd obv have to run up large margins in Staten Island and prolly cut down the margins in Lower Manhattan Suburbs such as Battery Park City. Would be funny though if Republicans somehow ended up representing lower Manhattan

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1486491863322439680?s=20

Yeah, that NY-22 isn't looking real safe. Even without Katko, I think Syracuse has some ticket splitters.

Seems like their goal was to make all the other upstate seats safe or likely D; if you try to redistribute NY-22 to even out partisanship you're gonna get a bunch of ~ Biden + 11 districts which could start getting iffy and certain incumbents would be really unhappy.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What they do will be very telling. There is some evidence to suggest they may draw a relatively tame map like FL Rs or they could go full 23-3.

I think as for passing the map, any map should be able to pass the State General Assembly. As for the state Senate, they can only afford to have 1 defection who is most likely to be Simcha Felda who has switched like 3 times now and who State Dems don't have a very good grip on. I think if they argue it from the perspective this is our duty to cancel out R gerrymandering nationwide, a more aggressive map has a more reasonable chance of passing than just trying to hide the fact it's a gerrymander. This ofc assumes the map that's introduced is a pretty severe gerrymander. I do wonder if it's possible some far-left NYC state senator who doesn't have great ties to the state party (think Julia Salazar) could actually derail a gerrymander, as there really aren't that many moderate NY State D Senators.

What's really interesting is that is if all the remaining cards fall mostly Dem's way, the biggest wild card being NY, we could actually have a median seat that voted to the LEFT of the nation in 2020 (barely), which would be quite interesting considering at the beginning of this process the big debate over whether the new House map would be Biden or Trump majority

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like a NY-11 Staten Island - Lower Manhattan District could theoretically be won by Sarah Davis type Republicans if partisanship was reduced and they played all their cards right (not gonna happen) as it seems like a very high-propensity, somewhat diverse, pragmatic professional family sort of district. They'd obv have to run up large margins in Staten Island and prolly cut down the margins in Lower Manhattan Suburbs such as Battery Park City. Would be funny though if Republicans somehow ended up representing lower Manhattan

New York has suddenly migrated to the Antipodes

When I say suburban, I mean culturally suburban, not physically. I think NY is the only place where a area of 40 story high-rises can be culturally suburban.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Whatever happens with congressional districts, one thing is certain -New York Democrats will never again allow Republicans to control the state Senate (either by outright winning the chamber, or by encouraging defections among more conservative Democrats), and will ensure that chamber is as gerrymandered in their favor as the state Assembly already is.  

Ye it's weird to think about how Rs controlled the NYS up to 2018. My guess is they draw a slightly more modest State Senate map that should lock in a supermajority in both chambers most cycles but doesn't aim for 55 Biden seats or smtg crazy.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think as for passing the map, any map should be able to pass the State General Assembly. As for the state Senate, they can only afford to have 1 defection who is most likely to be Simcha Felda who has switched like 3 times now and who State Dems don't have a very good grip on. I think if they argue it from the perspective this is our duty to cancel out R gerrymandering nationwide, a more aggressive map has a more reasonable chance of passing than just trying to hide the fact it's a gerrymander. This ofc assumes the map that's introduced is a pretty severe gerrymander. I do wonder if it's possible some far-left NYC state senator who doesn't have great ties to the state party (think Julia Salazar) could actually derail a gerrymander, as there really aren't that many moderate NY State D Senators.

FTR, Dems may actually only might now need a simple 50%+1 vote since the commission broke down and threw up their hands, rather than give them anything to propose amendments to. The law is weirdly worded here, and whenever I come across weird wording in NYS law, it usually isn't there by accident. I'm sure we'll see whenever a floor vote occurs, but that twitter community that switched their pfp's to laser-eyed-hochul certainly read it as simple majority. 

I think ideally they want to avoid that since that just opens a can of worms of legal issues that could give the map more reason to be struck down. It'll be interesting to watch what happens.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like a NY-11 Staten Island - Lower Manhattan District could theoretically be won by Sarah Davis type Republicans if partisanship was reduced and they played all their cards right (not gonna happen) as it seems like a very high-propensity, somewhat diverse, pragmatic professional family sort of district. They'd obv have to run up large margins in Staten Island and prolly cut down the margins in Lower Manhattan Suburbs such as Battery Park City. Would be funny though if Republicans somehow ended up representing lower Manhattan

That sort of person would never be nominated by a Republican primary electorate that would still be dominated by Staten Island. Republican Party registration in neighborhoods like Tribeca or my very own SoHo that should be the base of such a candidate is in single digits, and New York has closed primaries.

You could see an independent David Catania-like candidate win at most, who would inevitably caucus with the Democrats anyway.

Ye. They seem like someone who may have had a legacy of sorts and then got either outprimaried in the Trump era or lost in 2018.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Point: NY and LI redistricting enter the U.S. spotlight

Behind a paywall, but the key quote is:

Nothing is final yet. Furthermore, Albany insiders said with assurance on Thursday that the legislative proposal due out by the weekend and due to be submitted for Assembly and Senate approval next wee, is significantly different from Maloney's congressional plan for New York

That includes all the congressional "hot spots": namely Suffolk, Staten Island, and Western New York, where the lines "do not resemble" what Maloney is pushing for, a state source said

Before people jump to conclusions over this, this isn't really telling as to how gerrymandered the map will or won't be. There are many ways to make a Dem gerry that doesn't look anything like Maloney's and obviously a fair map wouldn't look anything like Maloney's either.

This prolly does rule out with relative certainty Staten Island being attatched to Lower Manhattan though, and if Dems go for a LI gerry, NY-01 prolly becomes the blue seat.

Technically speaking though no matter what aren't the lines on Staten Island going to be exactly the same unless they choose to split it? They probably just meant where it's attached to, but would be funny if we got Staten Island split into 2 districts.


TBH I'm getting Florida vibes out of all this. They prolly try to shore up NY-18 and NY-19, and at least make a half-hearted attempt for NY-11 and one of the LI seats, but nor a maximalist map. Also, if they're not gonna eliminate make NY-22 blue, NY-24 at least gets slightly better for Dems

[ProgressiveModerate]

I was promised maps this weekend, where are the F****** maps?

In classic NY fashion prolly either at 11:59:59 or 3 weeks late

[ProgressiveModerate]

At face value, this comes accross as a least change map that screws AOC

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looks like NY-26 is kept whole meaning no snake

[ProgressiveModerate]

So TL;DR, Tenney gets screwed.

NY-22 has replaced 24 as the Syracuse seat (now includes Ithaca) and 21 is merged with 22.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's whole county of upstate

[ProgressiveModerate]

NY-19 takes in Binghamton and Utica

[ProgressiveModerate]

So seems like 3 upstate Safe R seats with every D seat getting bluer or staying the same

Real question is what's up with NY-1/NY-2 and where NY-11 attatches

[ProgressiveModerate]

No real suprise but this seems to be the new NY-26

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there a map?

We're piecing it together slowly but surely. Come back in a week

[ProgressiveModerate]

Uh NY-25 is weird. I wonder if they meant West Bloomfield Town over East Bloomfield Town



Still makes it weird but at least contigous

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ok they did a good job, though it seems like as usual things are messier than they have to be. That NY-24...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Oh Dang they really shored up Delgado. That seat looks pretty cozy

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maloney's district is only like Biden +8. I would probably cry with laughter if DCCC chair went down.

NY-11 is still somewhat of a question mark. What's the bluest district that Malliotakis could survive in?

The depends entirely on if you are talking just about 2022 or about the rest of the decade. As long as it is a Biden seat, she will lose probably in 2024, but if it is a weak-kneed one she can probably win in 2022. There is really no reason it should be less than 60% Dem/Biden or so.

Biden + 18 seems to be the max you can get without doing something crazy.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Jones has good relation with the Orthodox Jews and the local GOP doesn't have the best relation.

Didn't Rockland GOP literally run antisemitic ads scaremongering about the Hasidic community 'taking over the county? Clearly their growth will doom the Democrats in this seat.

If they did, that's an extremely stupid move on their move because Hasidic Jews could be an extremely potent bloc for the GOP in NY and NJ. They vote Republican at a higher rate than black people vote Democratic.

They're a really interesting community because while in 2020 they did, in 2016 they didn't. They seem to vote as a Block though; just look at New Square which swung like 180+ points towards Trump and where he got 99% of the vote. I wonder how much this will hold across the board or if 2020 was unique.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sad how they *almost* cleaned up NYC except for NY-10 which is just ridiculous

[ProgressiveModerate]

DRA Link.

NY-11 is disappointing, coming in at only 54.6% Biden.

I am not sure that is enough to secure a Democratic pickup in 2022.

It could easily have been made more Democratic by giving it some of the downtown Brooklyn white progressive areas that are mostly in NY-07.

Note Clinton got the exact same percentage here. These parts of Brooklyn contain voters who will never be splitting tickets...ever.

Yeah if Rs win this district, it'll have to be because of terrible turnout up in Park Slope

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sure, but screwing an ethnic group like that because they tend to oppose you, looks really bad, at least to me.

It seems like many things in New York's redistricting look really bad to you, above and beyond events in the other 49 states, tbh.

TX was bad, Illinois was bad, but in those states there is nothing but the VRA to constrain the gerrymanderers. What makes NYS uniquely terrible is that by referendum a provision was added to the NYS Constitution, and the Dems are putting it on ignore, apparently confident that the high court is that hackish. That is one way to make governance the rule of "men" rather than law. In any event, that is the source of my dyspepsia. In Ohio and Florida the Pubs made a reasonable  effort to follow the law (which has similar provisions), coming up a bit short in Ohio, and looked bad with Hamilton County, but NYS is in a class by itself.

Except in OH they only followed the objective criteria and still tried to make as R friendly of a map as possible. NY literally has no quantifiable criteria.