North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

On the first map my guess is there’s favorable R sorting in Pitt County and NC-01 is about Biden + 45!

The second map appears to pull NC-01 further south into Wayne County and is probably about Biden + 2

[ProgressiveModerate]

On the first map my guess is there’s favorable R sorting in Pitt County and NC-01 is about Biden + 45!

The second map appears to pull NC-01 further south into Wayne County and is probably about Biden + 2

Buncombe is apparently split in one map but not another.

Ye I saw that too. Shows at least some NC Rs are scared about Asheville flipping NC-11 long term since there’s a pretty natural Trump + 11ish config for NC-11 and Trump + 11 should generally be sufficient imo.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC-2 is entirely within Wake County in both versions, so that's obviously a dem sink.  NC-12 is entirely in Mecklenburg County in both versions too, so same there.

I rmbr there was one joke of a Republican map proposal in the 2020 cycle that tried to split Charlotte like 4 ways with no Dem sink. Huge dummymander given one of the seats still narrowly voted for Biden in 2020. Ceding a Charlotte and Raleigh based districts are essential for any R gerrymander at this point.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Map 1 seems like a dummymander with how they handeled Wake County; the southern half especially has been brutal for Rs in recent cycles

[ProgressiveModerate]

Both those congressional maps are disgusting. You can make an equally effective 11-3 map that doesn’t have districts hyper-extending across large swaths of the state. There are just so many unnecessary weird pairings.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My thoguhts:

Map 1 (the 10-1-3 map) def seems more secure overall with seats seeming to be around 57% Trump on 2020 Pres numbers. On this map, the NC GOP did a good job at making all districts geopolitically diverse, which makes strong swings in either direction harder so this map should be secure for the decade. NC-11 is a liability if you're a believer in Ashville and other liberal pockets continuing to grow their influence. NC-09 could also be a liability, only because it's "only" Trump + 14 and should start to get rapid spillover from Greensboro over the course of the decade, and a bit from Raliegh, but it should be fine. There are a few things that seem inefficient or unnecessary in the gerrymander, which pisses me off a bit.

Map 2 (the 11-3 map) is a bit riskier, with most of the R seats only being around 55-56% Trump. This map truly aims to be a maximal gerrymander with very very aggressive political sorting, and all the Republican districts stretching over very large geopolitically diverse areas. Interesting they kept the 2010s version of NC-09, which was quite effective with Republican gains in the rural parts cancelling out D gains in Charlotte.

Overall disgusting maps though. Not only are they gerrymanders, but they are very precise but there are also ways to make equally effective gerrymander maps that are more compact and whatnot.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No democratic voter in this state supports gerrymandering. We have been hostages to it our whole lives, one way or another.

I am pretty furious at NC dems for not passing through independent commissions when the writing was clearly on the wall. A ballot initiative in the early 00's would've completely changed the state's trajectory.

I don't agree that the writing was on the wall. The state went blue presidentially in '08 for the first time since 1976 (with Obama improving on Kerry's performance in 91/100 counties) and Democrats held the state legislature for the entire decade until 2010. Unlike a few other state legislatures at the time (Hello Arkansas!), I don't think they're to blame for not seeing the rural collapse and the resulting ramifications until it hit them in the face.

I think of it as somewhat simillar to Dems being caught offguard by Trump's 2016 win; in hindsight it's easy to look back at the election and say Dems should've invested more in the rust belt and what not, but at the time most folks saw MI and WI as genuine lean/likely Dem states, especially after Obama's solid 2012 performance.

The 2008 elections were very good for NC Dems, both federally and at the state level, and many pundits believed NC-Dems had developed some sort of long term NC majority combining a strong black vote, white working class vote, and growing liberal cities vote. People were then blind-sighted when these working class communities shifted hard right somewhat permanently, and NC never really came back to Dems at any point throughout the 2010s.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I thought 4 on the Durham-Black Belt map looked like a dummymander but opened it on DRA and the parts of Wake it has aren't blue enough or trending blue enough. Both maps are probably 11-3 the whole decade.

What do we think, is this hypothetical 50.3% BVAP district sufficiently compact for Gingles to apply? If so, any map that doesn't have a likely/safe D black belt seat seems like it should get struck down.

How long til Jeff Jackson and the rest of the drawn out people decide to run for statewide office

Jackson's already doing that, he's running for Attorney General IIRC.

Imo, probably for a court. Given that in AL, the only way to achieve a somewhat reasonable 2nd black district was to dip down and grab Mobile and that was considered acceptable, this would probably be so too. A big difference however is your map has a ton of County chops which may be problematic - courts tend to be skeptical of excessive county chopping.

Also even if NC-01 did get struck down, there's a good chance a replacement court map would only fix that part of the gerrymander and you're still stuck with an 10R-4D map.

Honestly, this is why map 1 (the true 11-3 map) might be better for Rs from a legal standpoint; there district 1 is ~40% black and should probably be pretty good about sending a black Dem to congress (or at least have black voters get a majority block in the D primary).

In the other map (10-1-3), none of the safe Dem districts would let blacks have a majority influence in the D primary, and NC-01 which actually would let blacks have their candidate of choice in a D primary is competitive in a GE.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For map 2, District 13 really doesn't look like a Trump + 17 district just eyeballing it. I think I forget how red Johnston County is, and that basically all the Wake suburbs it takes in went for Trump in 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there any indication which map the GOP is leaning towards regarding NC-1? That’s the only seat that is intriguing.

One theory I have is the map 2 config (a swingy NC-01) is what they actually plan to do, especially since they know long term that district is probably shifting their way, but map 1 where they make NC-01 a pack is a threat of sorts of what they will do if faced with a VRA/14th Amendment suit.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ok so they advancing map 2 (the 10-1-3 map) with minor amendments to 3,7 and 8

[ProgressiveModerate]

The GOP map is not only effective at making all the R districts simillar in partisanship, but also has it so all the R districts take in a good mix of D and R shifting communities to try and prevent trends from eventually breaking the map.

Compare this to GOP maps in places like GA and TX, where certain seats stand out as liabilities because even if they're Trump + double-digits right now, they have been shifting very hard left for the past decade. Here, all the R seats around around Trump + 11 - 17 but none stand out as particular long-term liabilities other than *maybe* NC-11 or NC-13 if suburban Wake County goes brrr.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What's the constitutional petition process like in NC?

60% vote of approval in both leg. chambers in one session to get an amendment on the ballot (no gov veto).

Oof.

Ye Dems only shot at fixing NC redistricting at this point is flipping the State Court and/or the federal Court, both of which will prolly take a while. Good chance NC itself is Senate seat 50 or 51 for Dems at some point this decade so could be decisive as to whether they fill a seat or not.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ok Senate passed map.

Let’s see if House makes any modifications. Probably a pretty solid 10-1-3 map. Don Davis I’d an overperformer but low black turnout can easily kill him.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated State House map (very few changes).

Broke 70-50 for Trump in 2020. Rmbr, in NC 72 seats are needed for a supermajority.

There are a handful of narrow Biden seats in the "black belt" that could def be vulnerable, especially in cycles with low black turnout and/or black voters shifting right. Dems already lost the current equivalents to some of these districts in 2022.

There are a few competative suburban seats as well. Notably, Beasley in 2022 outran Biden 2020 in both of the competative Mecklenburg and both of the competative Wake County House districts. She also pretty notably outran Biden in the Chatham County based district.

This map makes it very hard for Democrats to get a majority though. To do so, they'd either have to make back huge gains in eastern rural NC which seems unlikely at this point, or have suburban shifts go on overdrive flipping some Trump + 20ish seats around greater Charlotte, Raliegh, Greensboro, ect.

Honestly Dems are having an increasingly poor vote distribution in NC. If you look at where Dems have made some of the biggest gains over the past decade in NC, it's been mostly in Safe Blue areas in Raleigh, Durham, and Charlotte. Sure, they've flipped a few suburban seats, but a pretty underwhelmingly number considering the magnitude of their gains in these metro areas.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah the big picture issue for NC Dems in the legislature is that a lot of their support is locked up in districts which are like 55-45 R, like much of the state east of Raleigh. Those places aren't winnable for the NC Democrats as presently constituted, especially since they've failed to win outright Biden-voting seats in this part of the state.

I think Dems best long term hope is that the urban parts of the state continue to grow at fast rates, cause if you could get those seats close to a majority, it'd be really hard for Republicans to win the legistlature unless they start making big time comebacks. Within Counties like Wake and Mecklenburg, Democrats have quite an effective vote distribution.

[ProgressiveModerate]

2020 Pres - 2022 Sen map.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah the big picture issue for NC Dems in the legislature is that a lot of their support is locked up in districts which are like 55-45 R, like much of the state east of Raleigh. Those places aren't winnable for the NC Democrats as presently constituted, especially since they've failed to win outright Biden-voting seats in this part of the state.

I think Dems best long term hope is that the urban parts of the state continue to grow at fast rates, cause if you could get those seats close to a majority, it'd be really hard for Republicans to win the legistlature unless they start making big time comebacks. Within Counties like Wake and Mecklenburg, Democrats have quite an effective vote distribution.

Yes, I wouldn’t be surprised if that lone Mecklenburg Trump seat is won by Biden next year. Or if one of the Wake ones flip.

Think Biden flips the Mecklenburg seat and both the Wake seats. All swung towards Beasley in 2022 which is pretty insane, considering Rs had favorable turnout statewide and these types of seats tend to have some downballot lag.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Congressional map is now law with a few minor tweaks.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's the final State Senate map Rs passed. It breaks 31 Trump - 19 Biden.

Of the 19 seats only 3 are remotely competitive. 13 and 42 are both desperate attempts by Rs to cling on to suburban seats within Wake and Mecklenburg Counties respectively. Both districts have been shifting pretty hard left and should prolly be Dem long term. District 5 is Biden + 13 but only Beasley + 7 in 2022 and has generally been drifting right but for the most part think it should be ok for Dems.

There are several competative R seats. Both 11 and 24 are Clinton-Trump seats. Only way I can see Dems clinging onto 11 long term is if Franklin County starts seeing some liberal spillover from Wake. 24 really comes down to who has a candidate that can appeal to the Lumbee tribe. 18 takes in Northern Wake, is currently represented by a Dem overperformer, and is generally shifting left so Dems prolly hold it long term; was only Budd + 1 in 2022. Dems may also have a shot at SD-07 if they continue their gains in Wilmington and a longshot in the Trump + 10 Carrabus based seat. This basically locks Dems out of a majority for the decade, and difficult to break the R supermajority.

The crazy crack of black voters with SD-01 and SD-02 seems blantantly illegal, especially since as another poster pointed out there is an easy County cluster to avoid this split. I don't understand why Rs didn't leave the northeast config on the map they used in 2022 cause that seat was right shifting, only Biden + 4 in 2022, and they won it in 2022 and would have a good shot at holding it long term. Because they were greedy, they risk the map Nyvin posted a few pages back which would make SD-02 a Biden +13 seat and flip SD-11 into a Biden seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's the final State Senate map Rs passed. It breaks 31 Trump - 19 Biden.

Of the 19 seats only 3 are remotely competitive. 13 and 42 are both desperate attempts by Rs to cling on to suburban seats within Wake and Mecklenburg Counties respectively. Both districts have been shifting pretty hard left and should prolly be Dem long term. District 5 is Biden + 13 but only Beasley + 7 in 2022 and has generally been drifting right but for the most part think it should be ok for Dems.

There are several competative R seats. Both 11 and 24 are Clinton-Trump seats. Only way I can see Dems clinging onto 11 long term is if Franklin County starts seeing some liberal spillover from Wake. 24 really comes down to who has a candidate that can appeal to the Lumbee tribe. 18 takes in Northern Wake, is currently represented by a Dem overperformer, and is generally shifting left so Dems prolly hold it long term; was only Budd + 1 in 2022. Dems may also have a shot at SD-07 if they continue their gains in Wilmington and a longshot in the Trump + 10 Carrabus based seat. This basically locks Dems out of a majority for the decade, and difficult to break the R supermajority.

District 5 is notable in that it's the only place in Eastern NC outside of the coasts to have a non-negligible white liberal population as well.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of leftward movement in Franklin County, though I may be being optimistic; there's been a lot of suburban growth along US-1 in Northern Wake County, which most recently flipped the area around Wake Forest. Youngsville is the next logical zone to see growth in this way. The adjacent part of Northern Wake may also get commuter rail in the medium term thanks to the S-line project, which is basically the only viable rail project happening in the Triangle these days, though that probably doesn't happen this decade.

18 is interesting; Mary Wills Bode will definitely have an uphill climb, but she's also fairly good recruit for Democrats in that her ~vibes~ are well to the right of her actual views (which to my understanding are actually even well to the left of her voting record), in a way which is a good fit for exurban Wake.

A bit off topic but I feel like in general over the past few cycles, Democrats have done a better job at finding candidates for various swing seats who present as down to earth and moderate in rhetoric, even if they're truly more progressive and an academic or "elite". I think especially with female candidates, Dems have been quite good at running "I'm a normal mom" type candidates.

Long term I think Dems hold SD-18; Biden only lost it by 2, Beasley by 1; I think he narrowly carries it in 2024 because it's right at the part of Wake County that's seeing pretty rapid liberal spillover.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fair NC State House map using existing County Clusters. Broke 66 Trump - 54 Biden on 2020 Pres.