NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm surprised this hasn't been talked about yet:

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1589382468112904192

This was certainly a startling moment, and an unacceptable one. I don't think supporters of any candidate should be subject to verbal abuse or physical assault. If you are going to condemn Republicans and Trumpists (rightfully) for harassing and assaulting Democrats and Biden supporters, then you should condemn what was done to this woman.

NY def has some of the worst of the Democrats. A lot of angry people here. I think a lot of it has to do with not only that NY is so politically lopsided but has some very extreme cultural divides that just makes the polarization worse. The political divide of South Brooklyn I'd argue is the most extreme in the nation going from Biden 95% precincts and two precincts over Trump 80% precincts. You have a lot of people here on the left who really really dislike certain factions of the city which is just messed up.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Could you see the NYC GOP doing well in the 2025 city council elections, bronz?

They currently have 5 seats in the city council, that isn't like the watershed 7 seats they had under Mayor Giuliani but they could add more, especially in the Canarsie area or Elmhurst with Latino voters...

I don't see another Republican mayor soon......however.....they would have to win Democrats and Independents...

I am surprised the NYGOP base did not move to FL or PA yet....they're still in the neighborhoods

I agree they could add more, but def not from the Canarsie area..



They already have the few Staten Island and South Brooklyn seats, their next targets should be Asian areas such as Flushing where Zeldin came in striking distance.

In addition to their current seats, some of their best targets imo are:

District 30, Biden + 14, based around Middle Village which is basically like "white flight" within the city itself. It's a realtively transit desert, pretty white, and notably less dense than the surrounding areas. Zeldin def won this district.

District 43, Biden + 12, heavily Asian district, usually very low turnout, and def voted for Zeldin in 2022. These are some of the more culturally conservative Asian communities in Bensonhurst.

District 44, Trump + 64, basically represented by a conservaDem rn with ties to the Orthodox Jewish community.

Honestly though, outside of these, any other possibilities require some huge re-alignment. I think the Asian seats out in Queens could be possible down the road if they put in the work to actually appeal to these communities.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Could you see the NYC GOP doing well in the 2025 city council elections, bronz?

They currently have 5 seats in the city council, that isn't like the watershed 7 seats they had under Mayor Giuliani but they could add more, especially in the Canarsie area or Elmhurst with Latino voters...

I don't see another Republican mayor soon......however.....they would have to win Democrats and Independents...

I am surprised the NYGOP base did not move to FL or PA yet....they're still in the neighborhoods

I agree they could add more, but def not from the Canarsie area..



They already have the few Staten Island and South Brooklyn seats, their next targets should be Asian areas such as Flushing where Zeldin came in striking distance.

In addition to their current seats, some of their best targets imo are:

District 30, Biden + 14, based around Middle Village which is basically like "white flight" within the city itself. It's a realtively transit desert, pretty white, and notably less dense than the surrounding areas. Zeldin def won this district.

District 43, Biden + 12, heavily Asian district, usually very low turnout, and def voted for Zeldin in 2022. These are some of the more culturally conservative Asian communities in Bensonhurst.

District 44, Trump + 64, basically represented by a conservaDem rn with ties to the Orthodox Jewish community.

Honestly though, outside of these, any other possibilities require some huge re-alignment. I think the Asian seats out in Queens could be possible down the road if they put in the work to actually appeal to these communities.

True. Canarsie is now African American/Caribbean, although they are still some Italians there.

Yeah, Canarsie is what most NYers point to as *the* "hood".

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

Obama got NUT margins in most of the Bronx; I think he held Romney to just like 3% of the vote or smtg in NY-13 and NY-15. One possibility this cycle was that minority turnout seemed extremely low across the board, so perhaps some of the R leaning whiter communities had a greater impact.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

Obama got NUT margins in most of the Bronx; I think he held Romney to just like 3% of the vote or smtg in NY-13 and NY-15. One possibility this cycle was that minority turnout seemed extremely low across the board, so perhaps some of the R leaning whiter communities had a greater impact.

Sure, but NYC is also an area where Hochul and Dems severely underperformed Cuomo 2018. Even in 2014, Cuomo won by 14 pts.

Cuomo had appeal to a lot of ethnic enclaves of NY due to being Italian, but was toxic upstate plus Rs ran Molinaro who was a white boy from upstate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

One thing that is pretty amazing is Westchester was only 5 points more R than Queens (+21 to +26) and only 4.5 points more R than Obama/Romney 2012

And Tompkins was more D lmao.  Obama+41 to Hochul +44. During the 2022 special for the Reed seat there were the infamous 0 R votes precincts in Ithaca proper. I wonder how Yonkers voted. Its fairly unusual in that its one of the few cities or towns that are the largest in a county yet more R than the county as a whole. Its fairly black and hispanic but unlike the rest of Westchester its whites are closer to Long Island.

This is a bit of a weird sidenote that ik has been discussed before, but does it ever concern ya'll just *how* lopsided college campuses like Cornell's are. Literally college precincts are more D than 95% black precincts on the south side of Chicago at this point, despite colleges generally having diversity in every other regard.

Sure, young people tend to lean D and so do college educated people, but there is def external cultural stuff leading some of these campuses to be so heavily lopsided, especially in the northeast. Prolly because these schools are the stereotype of the "liberal elite", but I have to imagine most students don't really care about politics when applying and there are also students who don't really develop a political ideology until they're in college.

Another thing that always confuses me is my own personal experience; I go to a high performing public NYC high school that has a large number of immigrants from South Brooklyn communities and Asians from Queens and South Brooklyn that you actually have quite a notable conservative population within the student body, even if liberals tend to dominate. My school is exactly the type of "feeder" school for these top colleges, and a lot of the top students are students from these conservative leaning immigrant families. Idk but the lopsidedness of college campuses always surprises me.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like NY Dems are one of the most incompetent state parties that only survives thanks to how D is NY is.

Srs, the factioning that NY Dems have somehow managed to create is just so unnecessary and unhelpful, and the party overall is notorious for corruption.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The issue in NY is that all sides are terrible fits for the state.

The "mainstream" Dem party has a history of corruption and being out of touch with the voters. They tend to be overly combative with the more progressive wing of the party. They will often try to make optical moves like what Hochul is currently doing that just come across as awful.

Many of the WFP/Progressive Democrats tend to be too progressive and lacks older/more experienced politicians at this point. They're also toxic anywhere outside of NYC, and even in NYC have really struggled to get across to certain minority groups.

Rs whole message is constantly dissing on NYC which is basically half the state.

And the few moderate Ds there are seem to lack clear values and just like having the power.



The progressive and more establishment wins of the Dem party need to learn to coexist because I think there's a place for both in a state like NY. Srs, just let the voters choose who they like in the primary and let the chips fall where they may. Especially in a state like NY where the supermajority is particularly powerful, progressives/DSA are not getting the supermajority they'd need to pass any significant part of their agenda. On the flip side, the "establishment" wing needs the DSA members votes, especially given how narrow the supermajorities are in both chambers.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't inherently oppose LaSalle's nomination to the court, what I'm frustrated by is Hochul bending herself backwards and pissing everyone else off in the process. kinda makes me worried there's some big donor reason behind the scenes she choose LaSalle.

Ds in NY really need to work on coming together and while I think there's blame to go around, the way Hochul has handled this is really upsetting. I am also upset with how much some progressives have blown LaSalle's record out of the water. Yes, he is conservative, but some of the conclusions there making based on rulings from cases with distinct circumstances shows how shallow they are too.

Also, lowkey Jefferies and Vasquez are a bit frustrating when they call the overturning of NY's congressional map Jim Crow 2.0 (which it's not lol) but then back LaSalle who would almost surely ensures this "Jim Crow" map stays in place. I would've thought they would have stronger convictions than that either way.

This could have all been avoided had Hochul just nominated a "normal" left-leaning justice but instead we need this theatre. Shameful.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't inherently oppose LaSalle's nomination to the court, what I'm frustrated by is Hochul bending herself backwards and pissing everyone else off in the process. kinda makes me worried there's some big donor reason behind the scenes she choose LaSalle.

Ds in NY really need to work on coming together and while I think there's blame to go around, the way Hochul has handled this is really upsetting. I am also upset with how much some progressives have blown LaSalle's record out of the water. Yes, he is conservative, but some of the conclusions there making based on rulings from cases with distinct circumstances shows how shallow they are too.

Also, lowkey Jefferies and Vasquez are a bit frustrating when they call the overturning of NY's congressional map Jim Crow 2.0 (which it's not lol) but then back LaSalle who would almost surely ensures this "Jim Crow" map stays in place. I would've thought they would have stronger convictions than that either way.

This could have all been avoided had Hochul just nominated a "normal" left-leaning justice but instead we need this theatre. Shameful.

The most important thing in politics is being a team player. You cannot achieve anything without a unified party behind you. I don’t care if you’re progressive or conservative or moderate or whatever. It’s rarely even about ideology, it’s about listening to others and taking their concerns seriously. It’s insane that we have a governor who can’t do this basic thing.

I will be able to vote in 2026, and if I still live in NY Hochul is unlikely to get my vote in a primary unless she can prove she is, but she has a lot of proving to do.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a great start to Hochul’s first actual term. I wouldn’t be surprised if she doesn’t run for re-election, but that’s still 3 years away

I wouldn't be shocked if Assembly/Senate retaliate with impeachment for this. They probably have the votes if they really want to go there (the entire progressive wing, most normal liberal D's, all Republicans).

I am very upset with her right now but don’t support her impeachment cause that’s a high bar and there’s not rlly any grounds. Only if it comes out that this is some huge insider political favor should she be impeached, which given how much she’s willing to die on this hill could be what’s going on

[ProgressiveModerate]

East Side Access just opened and there was a big Press conference with Biden, Hochul, Schumer, and other political leaders. Biden announced more funding for the Hudson tunnel.

What's frustrating is that Hochul takes the credit, even though she's been particularly bad for public transit and trains so far in her tenure.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like we're in a cycle of "Hochul does something, everyone freaks out and says she's the devil" with no context in between. Not saying that all of the stuff she's doing isn't legitimately bad, but it certainly would be confounding if she was doing all of these things on purpose, and I can't take a lot of Twitter seriously about it because some of those people freak out over everything.

Can someone actually break down this veto and what the bill actually does?

I agree that some of these twitter takes are a bit silly, but ig what's frustrating is that Hochul seems to be doing a lot of things that are the opposite of what she ran on, even though NY is generally a deep blue state, and it's unclear exactly why.

Is she just genuinely more conservative at heart? Does someone on the right have something against her they'll release if she doesn't do their bidding? Is she getting paid a lot of money?

Especially with the LaSalle thing and they fact she's bending over backwards to fight a losing battle for such an unlikely pick, something feels very wrong to me as a NYer and idk what it is. I just want like a coherent reason why she actually wants LaSalle on the court specifically so much.