NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/nrsc/status/1298251503942209537?s=21

This is so awful lmao

It's kinda funny though, and definately catches your attention. Though, I do feel like you can't just keep screaming socialists at canidates who are clearly not socialists

[ProgressiveModerate]

From the debate today:

https://mobile.twitter.com/joebrunowsoc9/status/1308550733684518918?s=21

At least neither seem like they are currently addicts, but NGL, Tillis's answer was a bit creepy.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Watching the debate right now, and Cunningham looks so much younger than Tillis. For some reason I thought he was like 60 but apparently he's 47. It's good to have younger voices in the senate, so that makes me glad.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I find it interesting how much money Cunningham has raised despite him being  called a boring no name canidate by most people on atlas

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/benyc/status/1312183526201069568?s=21

'

If NC was only a 1/5 of it's current size, I would say this will have an impact, but this probably doesn't Dramatically shake up this senate race. Still Lean D in my book.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yesterday we got a Cunningham + 12 poll and people called it an outlier. Today we got a Cunningham 13 poll. Polling for NC-Sen has been all over the place, but the overall theme is that Tillis has not lead in a single poll for a while now. Interestingly enough, Cunningham seems to do better in the polls where there are fewer undecides. Polling by itself is following a simillar path to AZ-SEN, except Cunningham really seems like a no name compared to Kelly. I'm becoming more confident in winning NC-SEN, but keeping it at Lean D.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cal Cunningham probably has COVID too, since they debated just last night and did a fist bump. Stay away from Republicans, people, for the sake of your health.

By no means a guarentee, but a good chance that is the case. However, Cunningham seems at face value to be in better health than Tillis, though I think both survive with no matter complications, but you never know with these kinds of things.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yikes, adults can be stupid.

Strong Lean D -> Weak Lean D, which isn't that bad on face value, but considering how likely this is to be the tipping point seat, that isn't great news.

Overall though, none of these "scandals" has really had impacted on any down ballot races, like Hickenlooper with the ethics scandal still seems in a position to win handily and only slightly underperform Biden

[ProgressiveModerate]

The more I think about this the more I think it's a nothing burger. I text people all the time and everything is fine, it's great that he's good friends with one of his staffers, I really don't get what the issue is. Joking about kissing someone in a text isn't a really a crime, though a bit weird ngl.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is dumb and cringe of Cunningham, but I'm having a tough time seeing which swing voters are going to care. Like, this is some middle school level "sexting," I honestly thought it was a joke at first. Are there really thousands of swing North Carolina voters out there who are switching their vote because the dude called a woman he wasn't married to "historically sexy?"

But it can easily framed to be as he did something immoral or bad; most people aren't going to go through and read his texts

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just a reminder; Cunningham leads by an average of 6% in polls with 47% of the vote. This means that this would have to cause essentially 90% of the undecides to break Tillis's way which seems unlikely.

[ProgressiveModerate]

OK as Oklahoma! 

Well, Oklahoma is a s**thole so I'm glad you are agreeing that Donald Trump's actions are morally reprehensible and look forward to your endorsement of Joe Biden.

Joe Biden's position on abortion is morally reprehensible.

Kamala Harris's endorsement of continuing unrest in our streets is morally reprehensible, as is her position on abortion.

I'm voting for Trump and I'm asking others to.  The latter is something I didn't do in 2016.  

Anybody who votes for Trump is morally reprehensible.

Take that attitude into the real world and see what happens.  You'll find that there are a lot of decent and honorable people voting for Trump.  On the other hand, the overwhelming majority of folks looting, burning, and rioting over the past 5 months that vote are going to vote for Trump.

Name 10.

1. A friend
2. A family member
3. Another family member
4. Somebody who has a PHD
5. A celebrity
6. Most Republicans in congress
7. A random person
8. Another random person
9. Fuzzy
10. SirWoodbury

Hope this helps

[ProgressiveModerate]

In the past couple of weeks I have had one truck with a Trump flag make a U-turn and get close to the crosswalk while I was standing at an intersection as if they were trying to intimidate me (I had on no political items, but I am black). And just yesterday a woman with a Trump flag on her car gave me a dirty look for no reason while I was sitting outside the grocery store. Trump supporters are mean people whose goal is to bully people that don't look like them or act like them or think like them.

Are they really representative of all Trump supporters though? The bad apples tend to be the ones you notice.

[ProgressiveModerate]

OK as Oklahoma! 

Well, Oklahoma is a s**thole so I'm glad you are agreeing that Donald Trump's actions are morally reprehensible and look forward to your endorsement of Joe Biden.

Joe Biden's position on abortion is morally reprehensible.

Kamala Harris's endorsement of continuing unrest in our streets is morally reprehensible, as is her position on abortion.

I'm voting for Trump and I'm asking others to.  The latter is something I didn't do in 2016.  

Anybody who votes for Trump is morally reprehensible.

Take that attitude into the real world and see what happens.  You'll find that there are a lot of decent and honorable people voting for Trump.  On the other hand, the overwhelming majority of folks looting, burning, and rioting over the past 5 months that vote are going to vote for Trump.

Name 10.

1. A friend
2. A family member
3. Another family member
4. Somebody who has a PHD
5. A celebrity
6. Most Republicans in congress
7. A random person
8. Another random person
9. Fuzzy
10. SirWoodbury

Hope this helps

“Most Republicans in Congress” aren’t honorable.

Susan Collins is really concerned about that statement

[ProgressiveModerate]

In the past couple of weeks I have had one truck with a Trump flag make a U-turn and get close to the crosswalk while I was standing at an intersection as if they were trying to intimidate me (I had on no political items, but I am black). And just yesterday a woman with a Trump flag on her car gave me a dirty look for no reason while I was sitting outside the grocery store. Trump supporters are mean people whose goal is to bully people that don't look like them or act like them or think like them.

Are they really representative of all Trump supporters though? The bad apples tend to be the ones you notice.

The ones who aren't like that are willing to overlook bad behavior by Trump and his worst supporters. Even if they don't behave badly themselves they are enablers.

Fair enough. It's difficult because I don't believe in painting a picture of an entire group just based off the lowest common denominators, but at the same time, in my view, Trump has done so much that anyone who still supports him is doing some weir mental gymnastics at the very least. They might be fine people personally, but politically I might think they're dangerous, which puts me in a weird bind whenever I'm friends with a Trump supporter or smtg.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Damn it Cunningham!

edit

*I'm still a child so I don't fully understand this, but it sounds like Guzman Todd was more so the one who was sending the sexual texts the Cunningham. She literally said she was upset by how little attention Cunningham was giving her*

I'm glad that at this point we have a lot of back up races just in case one of the "core 4" fails, but this is making me a bit nervous nonetheless.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why him? Why not recruit Jeff Jackson or Josh Stein? I'm sure that with them chances to defeat Tillis would be far, far higher

This.

Jeff Jackson would have won.

I am changing this race to Lean R, sadly.

Cunningham needs to address this right away

NC has duds as Washington representatives. Dole, Edwards, Virginia Foxx, Burr, Hagan, Tillis.

Lean R seems quite impulsive. Most of the scandals thus far haven't really taken root and partisanship usually wins out. I agree this doesn't help Cunningham, and this race moves from lean D to tilt D in my view, but I feel like people forget that pre-scandal Cunningham had a 6%+ polling lead on average, and was very close to 49% in polls. (48.2% was his peak in my polling average)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why him? Why not recruit Jeff Jackson or Josh Stein? I'm sure that with them chances to defeat Tillis would be far, far higher

NC has duds as Washington representatives. Dole, Edwards, Virginia Foxx, Burr, Hagan, Tillis.

I was looking for counterpoints to this and your earlier point regarding NC electing terrible Senators and I have to admit, the crappiness goes back a long way. I presume most Democrats liked Hagan, but otherwise there isn't much to be impressed with: AFAIK most Republicans find Tillis kind of mediocre and Democrats dislike him, John Edwards was a scumbag, Elizabeth Dole was an awful campaigner, Burr practised insider trading, Faircloth barely served and then you are back to Jesse Helms (ugh) and Terry Sanford. A quick skim of Sanford's bio suggests he was kind of effective for the one term in which he served but he was clearly dissatisfied with the job.

Well the seat is cursed after all; the incumbent always loses. They are duds, but they don't last long

[ProgressiveModerate]

Congratulations to re-elected Senator Thom Tillis.

Why is Atlas so reactionary? I thought the ethics scandal was supposed to make CO-SEN close, but Hickenlooper is still just about as well as Biden in polling, despite running against an incumbent. Yes; this could go downhill, but it's not guarenteed to swing this seat in Tillis's favor by any means. We literally just got a Tillis + 5 poll post-texts being released.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Congratulations to re-elected Senator Thom Tillis.

Senator Bob Hugin sends his regards.

Menendez won by 12% while Democrats won the House PV by 20% despite Republicans having most of the incumbency advantages. It's clear these things can have an impact, but it's hard to swing a federal race super heavily unless it's something really really bad, and someone cheating is certainly not the worst scandal.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This race just went from likely D to lean R, and anyone saying otherwise is kidding themselves.

Are you being sarcastic. If not, you and I have a lot to discuss.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Alot of D ballots were already cast before the revelation, if it's a tight race, the Early vote would have counted and put Cunningham over the top, it started on 9/6

This is actually a good point, and could matter in a very close senate race, but most people who plan on voting haven't voted yet. Maybe this only has 80% of the impact it would've had otherwise since so many people have already voted.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This race just went from likely D to lean R, and anyone saying otherwise is kidding themselves.

Are you being sarcastic. If not, you and I have a lot to discuss.

Discuss it with me because he’s right.

The texts were one thing but going totally silent and backing out of town halls gives off a horrible look. I’d be my last penny Tillis wins this race

Literally no one will change their votes over this. What Cunningham did wasn’t even that bad, this race was and remains Tilt D.

It’s constant front page news in the North Carolina.

It’ll change 5-6% of Cunningham votes which is enough frankly

I would say closer to 4% max, and even if it was 6%, Cunningham lead Tillis in polling by 6% up until yesterday, so by no means would this race be over for Democrats even if Cunningham does 5 or 6% worse, especially considering this final month seems to be going downhill for the GOP overall thus far.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cunningham needs to break his radio silence. That’s a bad look. Learn something from the GOP.

Who listens to radio anymore. He should make a music video. After all, the video killed the radio star. It might help him seem more likeable, especially to younger folks, after all this.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why does this thread only have 5 posts about Tillis potentially being abusive to his former wife and 5+ pages dedicated to some cringey texts Cunningham sent?