I mean, she's going to lose either way. The question is if she wants to lose her House seat or lose in a bid for Senate.
There is no way her district doesn’t get more Dem. Polk county is growing and the district will need to shed rural territory.
What’s there to lose? Unless they’re worried about one of the other 3 seats coming back into play, the Iowa GOP will give Axne a swing seat.
IA-01 and IA-02 did not go for Trump by big margins. Also, Polk county cannot be split. Any district with Polk county in it will be no worse for Axne than the current district.
But both districts are trending rightward. They can make IA-4 less Republican in exchange for shoring up 1 and 2.
Easier said than done with Iowa’s rules against county splitting. Sinking Axne prevents the GOP from having to put any resources into Iowa. It’s not a guarantee but it’s probably the smartest option for them.
