2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

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And Clark has resigned. Interesting to see what effect this will have on Labour. I think it'll be a positive to them, Clark was never particularly popular with their base anyway.

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National seems to have blown up their chances of dragging Labour down below 50%, however a lot can change in a couple of months. Also, ACT seems to be polling near the level needed to get some list seats, in addition to their Epsom electorate.

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It is quite interesting how National has effectively collapsed since the last GE, Key's resignation definitely destabilized them long-term.

NZF is definitely not in an enviable position right now.

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If Ardern loses her Mount Albert electorate, something's gone horribly wrong for Labour.

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Yeah, National don't even seem to be trying at the moment. I think it's basically certain that Labour either gets a majority, or forms a coalition with the Greens, especially since we haven't defeated a first-term government since the 70s.