Georgia suburbanites sticking with Trump

[ultraviolet]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

I agree. Even though Biden is winning in the GA poll averages, this one poll showing Trump up by a huge 1 point makes a win there all but certain. It helps that Emerson is one of the best pollsters out there.

[ultraviolet]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

I agree. Even though Biden is winning in the GA poll averages, this one poll showing Trump up by a huge 1 point makes a win there all but certain. It helps that Emerson is one of the best pollsters out there.

My point is that the pollsters generally have a strong habit of getting polling wrong when it comes to elections which Trump is involved in. And even more particularly within states where there is not a clear leaning towards one party or the other.

Even more curious is the pollsters ability to not just get the polls wrong equally (sometimes for Trump and sometimes against), but rather to consistently get it wrong against Trump.

On this basis, when I see some polls showing a Trump lead, I tend to think that pollsters actually have no clue which way the election is headed. And it certainly calls into question Biden's 4,5,6+ point lead which most polls say he has.

Sooooooo 2016.

That’s one election, you can’t get a trend from that. Polling has changed since then too, and so has the entire nature of the election, if you couldn’t tell.

[ultraviolet]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

I agree. Even though Biden is winning in the GA poll averages, this one poll showing Trump up by a huge 1 point makes a win there all but certain. It helps that Emerson is one of the best pollsters out there.

My point is that the pollsters generally have a strong habit of getting polling wrong when it comes to elections which Trump is involved in. And even more particularly within states where there is not a clear leaning towards one party or the other.

Even more curious is the pollsters ability to not just get the polls wrong equally (sometimes for Trump and sometimes against), but rather to consistently get it wrong against Trump.

On this basis, when I see some polls showing a Trump lead, I tend to think that pollsters actually have no clue which way the election is headed. And it certainly calls into question Biden's 4,5,6+ point lead which most polls say he has.

Sooooooo 2016.

That’s one election, you can’t get a trend from that. Polling has changed since then too, and so has the entire nature of the election, if you couldn’t tell.

Some things have changed, most have not. The level of vitriol toward Trumps and his supporters has gotten worse and more violent - hence (IMO) the huge inaccuracies in polling data which do not pick up a large percentage of voters who will vote Trump. Similar to 2016, but on a greater level in 2020.

Also, (and this is entirely subjective), sit back and drop the partisan angle on the whole election. Which candidate looks more popular on face value? Trump with thousands attending his rallys every day? Or Biden and Harris who collectively struggle to get 50 people to show up (and therefore have instructed people to bring their cars and honk the horns to generate some noise).

First, pollsters recognized that what was wrong with their 2016 polls was mostly that they didn’t weight for education. Now they do. We can’t know for sure if that’ll fix them until Election Day, but it seems promising.

Second, crowd sizes do not matter. Obviously this metric is even more useless this year as most Democrats do not want to be at a huge event during a pandemic, and Biden and Harris don’t want that either. Trump and his supporters don’t care about that.