OK-Gov 2022: Dream the Impossible Dream?

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Damn

https://twitter.com/DanSnyderFOX25/status/1582079315373539330?s=20&t=ZjhAqr0...

The most bizarre part of this poll is that it is way better for Ryan Walters for State Supt. than other recent polls, which I don't think anyone in the state would expect at all. I don't feel like we had any indication that the difference between Gov. and State Supt would flip completely like this, which makes me skeptical of the poll overall to be honest. Really Twilight zone stuff for polling today.

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What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

For counties, she prolly wins Oklahoma County given how things are going. I think there's a good chance she wins Trump + 14 Cleveland County because of it's suburban nature and Norman; Edmonson won it in 2018.

Tulsa County is quite a tough carry for a Dem but it's def possible if Stitt is really that unpopular. She could also carry a few of the heavily native counties such as Muskogee and Cherokee (which Edmonson won in 2018, Muskogee by just 1 vote). McIntosh, Payne, and Okmulgee counties are also possible I suppose.

Finally the only other county I could see her carrying is Comanche County home to Lawton. Stitt narrowly won it in 2018.

Unless Hofmeister absolutely nosedives into oblivion, she is winning Oklahoma County. I feel like people forget how close Biden was to winning it. If Hofmeister manages > 40% (much likelier than not, in my opinion) she is probably winning Cleveland.

Beyond those 2: I don't think the difference in counties between a healthy Stitt win vs a narrow Hofmeister win is necessarily all that great. At least not like it would be with a Democrat in the past winning a bunch of rural counties. With a uniform swing, a narrow Hofmeister win is possible with only 6 counties: Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland, Comanche, Payne, and Cherokee. Obviously it won't be an exact uniform swing, but I think the likeliest counties for Hofmeister to win are all from that list, whether she wins or loses. It's just a question of how many she wins.

Beyond those 6: Muskogee is worth watching. Okmulgee on paper seems interesting, but it actually hasn't shown it's ancestral D character much in awhile, as far as I know. If I had to add another wildcard county, it would actually be Pontotoc, not McIntosh. Pontotoc voted for Medicaid expansion, and I think a Hofmeister win would likely closely resemble the Medicaid expansion map.

If Hofmeister gets only around the vote share that Edmondson did, my guess would be she trades Muskogee for Tulsa.

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What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

For counties, she prolly wins Oklahoma County given how things are going. I think there's a good chance she wins Trump + 14 Cleveland County because of it's suburban nature and Norman; Edmonson won it in 2018.

Tulsa County is quite a tough carry for a Dem but it's def possible if Stitt is really that unpopular. She could also carry a few of the heavily native counties such as Muskogee and Cherokee (which Edmonson won in 2018, Muskogee by just 1 vote). McIntosh, Payne, and Okmulgee counties are also possible I suppose.

Finally the only other county I could see her carrying is Comanche County home to Lawton. Stitt narrowly won it in 2018.

Unless Hofmeister absolutely nosedives into oblivion, she is winning Oklahoma County. I feel like people forget how close Biden was to winning it. If Hofmeister manages > 40% (much likelier than not, in my opinion) she is probably winning Cleveland.

Beyond those 2: I don't think the difference in counties between a healthy Stitt win vs a narrow Hofmeister win is necessarily all that great. At least not like it would be with a Democrat in the past winning a bunch of rural counties. With a uniform swing, a narrow Hofmeister win is possible with only 6 counties: Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland, Comanche, Payne, and Cherokee. Obviously it won't be an exact uniform swing, but I think the likeliest counties for Hofmeister to win are all from that list, whether she wins or loses. It's just a question of how many she wins.

Beyond those 6: Muskogee is worth watching. Okmulgee on paper seems interesting, but it actually hasn't shown it's ancestral D character much in awhile, as far as I know. If I had to add another wildcard county, it would actually be Pontotoc, not McIntosh. Pontotoc voted for Medicaid expansion, and I think a Hofmeister win would likely closely resemble the Medicaid expansion map.

If Hofmeister gets only around the vote share that Edmondson did, my guess would be she trades Muskogee for Tulsa.

A bit off topic but how do you think Oklahoma county goes in the senate race? Will Mullin and Lankford carry it or will trends end the county sweep?

I think Kendra Horn carries it but Madison doesn't.

Yes I think it's likely that Madison is the best performing Dem who does not win any county, though I wouldn't be super surprised if she managed to win Oklahoma County. Kendra on the other hand I think will likely win the first county for a Dem Senate candidate since 2008 (iirc).

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What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

For counties, she prolly wins Oklahoma County given how things are going. I think there's a good chance she wins Trump + 14 Cleveland County because of it's suburban nature and Norman; Edmonson won it in 2018.

Tulsa County is quite a tough carry for a Dem but it's def possible if Stitt is really that unpopular. She could also carry a few of the heavily native counties such as Muskogee and Cherokee (which Edmonson won in 2018, Muskogee by just 1 vote). McIntosh, Payne, and Okmulgee counties are also possible I suppose.

Finally the only other county I could see her carrying is Comanche County home to Lawton. Stitt narrowly won it in 2018.

Unless Hofmeister absolutely nosedives into oblivion, she is winning Oklahoma County. I feel like people forget how close Biden was to winning it. If Hofmeister manages > 40% (much likelier than not, in my opinion) she is probably winning Cleveland.

Beyond those 2: I don't think the difference in counties between a healthy Stitt win vs a narrow Hofmeister win is necessarily all that great. At least not like it would be with a Democrat in the past winning a bunch of rural counties. With a uniform swing, a narrow Hofmeister win is possible with only 6 counties: Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland, Comanche, Payne, and Cherokee. Obviously it won't be an exact uniform swing, but I think the likeliest counties for Hofmeister to win are all from that list, whether she wins or loses. It's just a question of how many she wins.

Beyond those 6: Muskogee is worth watching. Okmulgee on paper seems interesting, but it actually hasn't shown it's ancestral D character much in awhile, as far as I know. If I had to add another wildcard county, it would actually be Pontotoc, not McIntosh. Pontotoc voted for Medicaid expansion, and I think a Hofmeister win would likely closely resemble the Medicaid expansion map.

If Hofmeister gets only around the vote share that Edmondson did, my guess would be she trades Muskogee for Tulsa.

Thank you for this analysis. Ngl my understanding of OK politics is quite poor given the state usually doesn;t get much election coverage. Do you think Hoftmeiser will win any CDs? The GOP shored up OK-05 to be like Trump + 18 so it's not an easy question to answer.

I wonder why Expansion passed in pontonoc County, a county that gave Trump over 70% of the vote. I doubt Hoftmeiser wins it but is there some weird dynamic there?

Regarding CDs: this

What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

If she loses by even 10 points, she's almost certainly winning CD-5 (Edmondson lost it by just 0.2 in 2018).

From there, it's a matter of how close (or not) the race is: as an example, if she loses by 5-7 points, then she is probably pulling statistically-even in CD-1 (Tulsa; Stitt +7.7) & CD-4 (South-Central OK; Stitt +9.2).

Unless she just really racks up the score (relatively) in Little Dixie, there's no way I can see her winning where she wouldn't carry 3 out of 5 CDs. Even if she loses by low single-digits (in contrast with almost all contests in heavily-R states where Ds win, yet only score a paltry minority of CDs), there's a distinct possibility she still carries 3/5!

Regarding Pontotoc: I'm honestly not sure why it's had such quirky results recently. There are a couple reasons it could be a tad less red, namely Chickasaw Nation HQ + East Central University. But it seems to be unusually swingy.

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How did Stitt lose Tulsa County?

Stitt antagonized Tulsa Public Schools + Hofmeister, not just Stitt, is from there + it was bound to happen relatively soon due to suburban realignment.