Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[ReallySuper]

He’s backhttps://twitter.com/GeoffYoung4KY/status/1591775091968602113

only a true patriot could wear this to the capitol

[ReallySuper]

Beshear has officially filed for re-election

everyone is shocked by this groundbreaking revelation, i'm sure

[ReallySuper]

He’s backhttps://twitter.com/GeoffYoung4KY/status/1591775091968602113

I’ll bite why does he think Beshear is a felon

this? i guess?

https://twitter.com/GeoffYoung4KY/status/1603450954082402333?cxt=HHwWuoC-zbaJzcA...

[ReallySuper]

Savannah Maddox is out

meanwhile Kelly Craft is bravely and patriotically taking a personal stand against the greatest threat to Kentucky today:

https://twitter.com/KellyCraftKY/status/1603912871397789697

[ReallySuper]

Pretty remarkable that Kelly Craft is polling so poorly given that she's had the airwaves to herself and has been blanketing the state with positive spots.

considering her "positive spots" center around building a wall along the southern border to keep the tennesseeans out, i think i understand why she's not winning over many voters:

'

Ya'll think this might be another Laura-Kelly esq situation where a lot (but not all) of his rural crossover support erodes but be squeezes a few extra points out of greater Louisville, greater Lexington, the Cinci Burbs, and Bowling Green?

Also, 4 years of population shifts is prolly a slight net to Beshear in KY, but hard to say.

Whether this results in a win or loss is hard to say, especially since KY is a lot more rural than KS.

beshear was up +8 against bevin a year out in 2018 and it narrowed to +0.4 by election day. i think his support in rurals will definitely narrow again, especially if cameron is the nominee, but it's also different from kansas or 2019 bc beshear has pretty strong support in every region rn according to that poll. he's garnered a reputation as an effective crisis governor not just from covid but also from responding to the december 2021 tornadoes in western ky and the floods in eastern ky last summer, which will probably help him in both those areas. i think if anything louisville/the bluegrass/NKY will be the main challenge for beshear, not in terms of margins, which will be as high if not higher for him this time around, but in terms of turnout. ppl were very energized in 2019 bc everyone in these areas (especially teachers) hated bevin, but he obviously cant rely on that to get the numbers he needs to turn out again in his main urban & central ky democratic bases. but we also have expanded early voting which could help turnout as well...

granted given the republican primary hasnt even played out yet there's still a chance that beshear could coast to reelection in november (relatively speaking anyway) if there's a lackluster or just outright bad (looking at you kelly craft) nominee, or even if a good nominee is harmed more than helped by "winning" a nasty primary fight.

[ReallySuper]

Do KY Gubernatorial candidates still need to name their Lt. Governor running mates prior to the primary (I.e., do voters vote for the ticket in the primary)? It looks like Kelly Craft has selected State Senator Max Wise, but I haven’t heard anything from the other major candidates.

no, the (gop supermajority) legislature changed the law in 2020 so that candidates declare their running mate after the primary now (probably anticipating the wide field there would be in 2023 and the need to unite the gop after the primary).

[ReallySuper]

i just wanna say that the notion kentucky "rarely" uses cash bail is totally misleading. ky doesnt have commercial bail, but we have a "right" to bail and it is very prevalent for most criminal charges since there is a lot of judicial discretion. in 2016, almost 65,000 kentuckians charged with nonviolent offenses were in prison bc they couldnt afford bail (30% of all nonviolent offenders). they stayed an average of 109 days in jail, which is longer than most of them could possibly be sentenced to even if convicted. ky has one of the highest incarceration rates in the country (and therefore the world) and pretrial detention due to inability to pay bail means that jails are flooded with ppl who have not been convicted of any crime (73% of ky jails over capacity in 2018, ten jails at or over 200% capacity--louisville is actively considering building a new jail rn so they can find a reason to throw even more people in prison and throw even more of the budget at policing/jailing ppl). and the situation has definitely gotten worse in the last few years, though i havent found much more recent data. im not an expert on the bail situation in other states, but bail in ky is worse than almost every other nation on earth and definitely not something to be proud of.

anyway kelly craft is really funny and the idea that daniel cameron is a teddy bear soft on crime is one of her many laughable jokes that have made this campaign entertaining at least. glad the ky gop is continuing their strong tradition of deranged politicians in the vein of bevin that are utterly hilarious until they actually get into power and then all of a sudden its not so funny anymore.

[ReallySuper]

Is there expected to be a regional divide in this primary?

i dont think any of the polls that have been conducted have shown it broken down by region in their crosstabs, unfortunately, but if i had to guess cameron will probably do better in urban/suburban parts of ky while agriculture commissioner ryan quarles does better in rural areas. coal baron kelly craft might have a good showing in eastern ky (which will probably be receptive to her strong culture war campaigning as well). alan keck will do best in the southeastern part of the state (hes mayor of somerset). patriot eric deters probably wont crack 10% anywhere except some random barely-populated county due to pure chance but hes from nky so might slightly overperform there. i have no idea what western ky will do; it would make sense if they went for quarles but given kelly crafts recent surge and unapologetic conservatism i think she could do well there too.

tbh tho my guess is there will probs be less of a regional divide than usual since the main contenders are either statewide elected officials (cameron, quarles) or kelly craft who has also never held a local/regional office and has flooded the airwaves statewide. the only exception to this is alan keck, but hes polling so low that he will probably only have a very strong showing in pulaski and surrounding counties.

then again i could be totally wrong. when it comes to ky politics its best to just always expect the unexpected

[ReallySuper]

we do a little bit of trolling

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1658631874992898054?cxt=HHwWjIC8oeG50oQuAAAA

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1658631054914117632?cxt=HHwWgICzmYOK0oQuAAAA

[ReallySuper]

mapz

gop primary by county, shaded by margins (from wikipedia)

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red=cameron, green=quarles, blue=craft

second place by county:

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introducing eric deters in yellow
you might notice that monroe county in soky is the only county that cameron didnt win or place second in. he got just 20% of the vote behind craft's 46% and quarles' 28%

same thing but without shading margins:

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patriot elliott county, 26% deters (all of 51 votes!!)

beshear vs cameron raw primary vote:

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dem vs gop raw primary vote:

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[ReallySuper]

in the interest of balanced coverage, im going to put this old news here. unfortunately elon musk locked twitter so i cant see what (if anything) comrade geoff has said about this and have no choice but to write his response myself:

Criminal-in-Chief Andy Beshear (D-Lying, Genocidal, Fascist War Criminal) caught FUNNELING hundreds of thousands of dollars from D mayor. KDP machine--same cronies that rigged two primaries against me--corrupted by their big money donor criminal overlords. No one can support this crook who killed thousands of kids with his lies about the jab and now is trying to steal yet another election with dirty tricks. He will be destroyed in the general election and then come crying home to his daddy asking how could this have happened? Ds lost their one chance to win after they cheated me out of the primary illegally!

FBI investigates Democrat mayor's massive illegal donation to Beshear campaign

[ReallySuper]

cameron picked his running mate today: state senator robby mills

boring! shouldve picked eric deters after he invited cameron to a party in his backyard feat. donald trump and friends, or if he really wanted a legislator he couldve at least gotten one of the fun crazies like maddox as a thank-you for dropping out early. unfortunately he went the lame strategic route by picking a western ky "mainstream" conservative to hammer home the anti-trans campaign and keep the region safe gop.

[ReallySuper]

obviously beshear is DOA bc kentucky is a far-right ultrareactionary hyperconservative state and the extreme gop base will carry their nominee to a landslide victory. this is evidenced by the fact that the voters of ky passed constitutional amendment 2 banning abortion in all circumstances last year by a massive margin and the gop primary was won by crazed culture war campaigner kelly craft and second place went to her maga maniac lt gov nominee eric deters. therefore ky will never vote for baby killer andy bc the rightwing base will turn out bigly to destroy him

[ReallySuper]

the courier journal made a map of where the gubernatorial candidates have campaigned since the primary
its kinda screwy tho bc its definition of a campaign event is pretty limited but still interesting ig

plus a new beshear ad attacking cameron on abortion

[ReallySuper]

Is it pretty much guaranteed that Beshear finally loses the fabled Elliott county this year? Since his win in 2019, Trump improved his margin there from +45 to +51. Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul both won it for the first time by very large 35+ point margins. Even in the abortion referendum it was +18 on the Yes side.

at the same election rand paul won it with 68% of the vote, elliott county voted like this downballot:



at the state/local level it is still very much a dem county. even tho its obviously a pro-life county, it voted against the other amendment last year sponsored by the gop legislature that would have taken power away from the governor in calling special sessions. plus with how close beshear is keeping rocky adkins to him in both his administration and campaign there's basically no way it votes for cameron

[ReallySuper]

The problem here is that we lost Roe v. Wade under the Democrats. If I was President last year when Roe v. Wade was gutted, I would have had a remedy ready by the end of the weekend, maybe even by the end of the evening. Even after Roe v. Wade was gutted, the Democrats still did not codify Roe v. Wade when they had the chance.

I think the Democrats still control the 2 major cities in Kentucky and a few rural counties too. Are they doing anything to safeguard abortion rights in these places?

So basically this issue has become a fundraising cudgel for the Democrats. They talk a lot, but haven't done anything.

i am usually the first to criticize dems (especially louisville corporate real estate vulture demonrats), but since abortion is legislated for at the state level there's literally nothing they can do. you can't "safeguard abortion rights" in louisville or lexington when the state legislature has already forced the last abortion clinics to close (and not just with the dobbs decision + the trigger law, but through a sustained years-long campaign). and lou metro actually did pass an (unconstitutional) ordinance creating a buffer zone around the EMW clinic to protect women from reactionary protesters. also worth noting that beshear pretty much single-handedly doubled the number of clinics in ky (from 1 to 2 lol) before the trigger ban went into effect by reversing bevin's onerous restrictions

[ReallySuper]

KY Republicans really took the state for granted and thought federal elections from Kentucky would translate to a statewide win, with minimal work or effort, and an elections savant knows that Kentuckians love their Bill Clinton type Democrats. The entire GOP ticket is really bad except for Michael Adams who I really think deserves re-election as SOS.

Is there a chance Democrats could win any other statewide offices?

I don't even know who's running for any of the other offices.

yeah, this tells you basically all you need to know. the governor's race is the only one on people's minds (and on tv). even in a hypothetical "andy wave" i don't think it would be enough to lift up the other dems, despite col. pam stevenson for instance being based as hell and way better than her opponent (whose only qualification, like most of the gop ticket, is being mitch mcconnell's right-hand-man). i've been textbanking some for col. pam's campaign and even though our list is composed entirely of self-declared beshear supporters (either in 2019 or 2023) we've been getting a lot of "i will never vote for a democrat" responses lol

[ReallySuper]

i saw one (1) cameron sign on southern parkway (a deep blue stronghold in louisville) a few weeks ago so therefore beshear is DONE.

[ReallySuper]

just saw this ad on tv lmao

that certainly was... an attempt... i guess

[ReallySuper]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1719438063015711129

I'm sure some of Trump's MAGA fans will believe this.  But is there anyone who believes it that wasn't already voting for Cameron?

wait why did no one tell me beshear was this based??

[ReallySuper]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Next Tuesday is an election for Kentucky governor. In the privacy of the voting booth each individual can vote for whatever candidate they choose for whatever reason they choose, or for no reason at all. If Cameron asks people to vote for him as a referendum on Biden, and, they do vote for that reason then you are simply wrong.

So it’s a referendum on Biden for some people and one on Beshear for others.

Beshear should win but if he doesn't you might be able to credit the clowns in DC today. And unlike BLM (which had decent public support in polls), this will have almost done.

the protesters were literally calling for a ceasefire, which has 66% approval in the u.s., including majority support among both independents and republicans. and if you seriously think that the deciding factor in kentuckians' minds while they are voting for governor is the fact that a bunch of people waved a palestinian flag in washington dc then i am begging you to please touch some grass.

[ReallySuper]

With mail inclduded, the early vote has ended at about D+9.8.
🔴Republicans - 130,877 (42.35%)
🔵Democrats - 160,994 (52.09%)
🟠Independents - 17,172 (5.56%)

Do you know what it was at this point in 2019? I would say looking it this it's anyone's game maybe Beshear with a slight favorite?

These early voters are probably more engaged, more urban, and more moderate/liberal. The early Vote is probably like Beshear +15 right now.

only 16.5% of the early vote is from jefferson county (in 2019, over 19% of the total vote came from louisville). lexington is also underrepresented but to a lesser extent.

this could mean either 1. urban areas are not turning out this year as much as they did in 2019 (obviously bad for beshear) or 2. the election day vote will be more urban than expected (obviously good for beshear)

hard to tell which is true (or maybe both are?) given like u said theres not really a precedent. we will just have to see...

[ReallySuper]

https://twitter.com/phillipmbailey/status/1721858487595028881?s=46&t=s3rMphx...

this is right at what it was in 2019 in louisville (47.9%)

sec. of state predicts statewide turnout will be 42% (two points down from 2019)

[ReallySuper]

lol, beshear's won powell county by 1 vote. (bevin won it by 5 points)

nicholas county went from +1 beshear in 2019 to +12 beshear tonight

[ReallySuper]

lol, beshear's won powell county by 1 vote. (bevin won it by 5 points)

nicholas county went from +1 beshear in 2019 to +12 beshear tonight

Is that result confirmed? NYT says only 82% of the (expected) vote in.

this is the "completed" result from the state board of elections website, with all precincts reporting. probably less than the expected bc turnout has been really low in eastern ky: just 31% in powell county, 800 fewer total votes than in 2019