Elections Shuffler

[Hope For A New Era]

I've developed a bit of a fascination with Idaho recently, after learning of the unusual Superintendent of Public Instruction election in 2018, in which the Republican won by only 17489 votes out of 594465 cast, a margin of 3 points.

This is not an AL-2017-type turnout-difference election. In Ada County (Boise), there were 190502 votes cast in the gubernatorial race, in which the county voted D+1, and 186605 cast in the superintendent race, in which the county voted D+19. This was true and extensive ticket-splitting.

So, based on that 2018 map, I created this. It's a hypothetical D victory map in Idaho, created by adding a bit of #trends to that race. This hypothetical Democrat wins by a 0.2 point margin.




It should be noted that the shift was exceptionally strong in the eastern part of the state (most of those counties had their margins copied verbatim from the 2018 results):



So it's clear that Mormons will be an integral part of any future D coalition in Idaho.

It should also be noted that the Republican candidate got the most raw votes by far out of Canyon (Nampa and Caldwell) and Kootenai (suburban Spokane and resort town of Coeur d'Alene). However, these seem like places likely to trend left strongly during the 2020s.

[Hope For A New Era]

I've found the import/export options to be helpful in uploading prior work, so yes.

I can't seem to find those?

[Hope For A New Era]

ogallala aquifer depletion, next generation farm crisis

genuinely not sure if I'm serious or memeing about this

anyway, it's a D win without the insane Kelly NEKS margins