MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[Hope For A New Era]

If even Claire McCaskill couldn't win re-election in 2018, there's no way any Democrat beats Roy Blunt in 2022, especially if Biden is President. Sorry, this one won't be too interesting.

Claire McCaskill had a similar popularity pattern to Trump. An unshakable base, but unpopular everywhere else.

Although I think Blunt would be favored in a Biden midterm, with numbers like this it wouldn't surprise me if he decided to retire rather than run for reelection. Blunt's approvals are no better than they were in 2016, when he almost lost to Jason Kander-and was rescued from defeat by Trump. Why exactly has Blunt always been so unpopular?

Classic Washington insider in a state that despises insider politics in both parties, has a literal family of lobbyists, neither visible in the state (lives in DC and only owns a small condo in Springfield) nor a high-profile frequenter of national media, lackadaisical campaigner who is awkward in person, has a tendency to be very quick to campaign negatively in an off-putting way, uniquely poor rural outreach in a state where statewide candidates need it to be superb.

^ Pretty much nailed it, though I'd also add that he's seen as "Monsanto's best friend." He got very lucky. Put anyone other than HRC on the ballot and he loses in 2016.

[Hope For A New Era]

in a Biden midterm

You all keep saying this. In the last six midterm elections, three have had the non-Presidential party gain, two have had the Presidential party gain, and one has had no change in overall composition.

It seems like the House is much more likely to dramatically swing against the President's party in a midterm.

[Hope For A New Era]

Even if Greitens defeated Blunt in the primary, he'd win the general election easily.

Just like how Kris Kobach easily won KS-GOV 2018.

Probably Sarah Steelman vs. Crystal Quade.

Likely R since it is a Biden midterm.

Steelman, like Hawley will be on GOP presidential lists for 2024, 2028

Not sure how Crystal Quade would do in a statewide election. Probably not very strong with rural voters, but being from Springfield is likely a big help. Greene was Kander's downfall in 2016 and Galloway's ace in the hole in 2018.

[Hope For A New Era]

Likely R remains Likely R


Move along, nothing to see here

[Hope For A New Era]

But the thought of Senator Greitens makes me want to vomit.  Makes me feel more ill than when I had covid.

Pretty horrible yes, but might be a blessing in disguise. Democrats could uno-reverse-card the "every Democrat is AOC" tactic. And it's not like he'd vote any differently from Blunt.

I am unsure if the GOP can sustain the 76% that Trump earned in rural Missouri in 2020.

I don't think it's sustainable. Most rural counties will probably bounce back to around Hawley's performance level, or a bit to the right of that.

But a major problem for the Missouri Democrats are its suburbs. Suburbs on both sides of the state often showed promising polling for the Democrats only to falter majorly. Even with some racial depolarization during the 2020 election, the suburbs on both sides of the state are still very white.  

Falter how? Missouri is literally the only state in the Midwest where Democrats made state legislative gains. Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan had unchanged composition, Republicans gained everywhere else.

I really am becoming more and more confident that Missouri has finally turned the corner. Today I discovered just how close Faleti and Canady came to losing Boone (just 492 and 1017 votes away respectively), even as Biden won the county by 12 points. As trends slowly creep down the ballot, Missouri Democrats have nowhere to go but up.

Of course, it's a very long way up to be truly competitive again. This Senate seat is still Likely R at best. But it's a start.

[Hope For A New Era]

air claire with the facts in #populist and anti-establishment Missouri

https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/1369324973781835778

(the Ashcrofts and Blunts are the two big Missouri Republican political families)

[Hope For A New Era]

Ashcroft out!

Republican primary is now going to be an absolute mess. Get the popcorn ready.

If Jay Nixon didn’t run in 2016, it would be very odd of him to run now. He also has too much baggage over Ferguson in 2014.

He wasn't needed in 2016 because there were other, stronger statewide candidates, and the aforementioned Ferguson baggage was only two years in the past instead of eight.

[Hope For A New Era]

Will MacCaskill make a run?

Has already announced that she will not.

Kander, Galloway, and Bush are also all not running.

[Hope For A New Era]

Remember when disastrous GOP candidates could lose by double-digits in this state not so long ago? Good times.

I believe Greitens could have lost in 2020 if the legislature had somehow decided not to impeach him. His approval had fallen into the 30s by March 2018. I imagine it was probably even lower by the time he resigned.

It would have been a narrow loss, but he would have been very defeatable.

[Hope For A New Era]

Remember when disastrous GOP candidates could lose by double-digits in this state not so long ago? Good times.

I believe Greitens could have lost in 2020 if the legislature had somehow decided not to impeach him. His approval had fallen into the 30s by March 2018. I imagine it was probably even lower by the time he resigned.

It would have been a narrow loss, but he would have been very defeatable.

More than 2-&-a-1/2 years is a long time, though. For all we know, he could just as easily have Northam'd himself.

This is Greitens we're talking about. He's extremely Trumpy in every way. I don't think he is capable of staying quiet and letting it blow over. His resignation speech was very passive-aggressive. He would have been loudly playing the victim for the rest of his governorship and would have never let anyone forget it.

[Hope For A New Era]

If Greitens was actually as unpopular in the wake of his sexual predation and felony charges as he seemed to be then why would he be the frontrunner? Has he had a resurgence in popularity since then?

Who says he's the frontrunner?

Because people seem to think that no matter what, the base will always gravitate towards the most deplorable candidate in a GOP primary.

It's no guarantee, but it's a surprise when they don't. The ND-GOV 2016 primary is still a mystery to me.

[Hope For A New Era]

Plus statewide Republicans swept Platte, Clay, and St Charles counties by double digits. Yikes.

But Trump didn't.

Who are the suburban moderates going to associate Greitens with? It's not going to be Friendly Generic R Ashcroft, that's for sure.

My suburban educated white-collar (insert other realignment buzzwords here) parents have voted for exactly one Democrat in the past ten years and his name was Chris Koster.

Of course, watch this all go out the window because of sheer polarization. What a sad state this country is in.

With Blunt retiring and so many House members potentially running in this primary, it's very possible that a majority of MO's congressional delegation will be freshmen in 2023. Possibly a huge blow to the state's federal influence due to seniority.

In a sane world I'd be excited about the possibility of Hartzler being gone, but the way things are going she'll probably be replaced with someone even worse.

Jungle Primaries Now!

[Hope For A New Era]

My suburban educated white-collar (insert other realignment buzzwords here) parents have voted for exactly one Democrat in the past ten years and his name was Chris Koster.

Not Kander in 2016 or Galloway in 18? Or even McCaskill?

Lived outside Missouri for a five-year period from mid-2010 to mid-2015, so they didn't have to worry about who to vote for in 2012. I'm pretty sure they would have voted third-party.

They liked that Koster went on and on about how "fiscally conservative" he was in his ads.

[Hope For A New Era]

I think a couple of months ago I saw some suggestion that Clint Zweifel, the former state Treasurer, was being courted as the Democratic candidate in this race.  He's probably the only Democrat who could make this even close to competitive.  Anybody heard any new word on this?

He has been completely silent on the issue. It seems like the state party has already fully unified around Scott Sifton. Galloway is probably the most powerful D-MO endorsement nowadays, and she endorsed him the day he announced his campaign. It's pretty clear that it was an organized, coordinated effort. I'm not sure why they've basically anointed a random no-name former state legislator, but he seems like a reasonably good candidate. The only stronger ones would be the D statewide officeholders from before 2016.

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1390349202853617668?s=20

Hartzler is mostly rurals in central west Missouri with a few Kansas City exurbs.

She's just the worst. In every way.

Discount Joni Ernst with extra climate change denial.

[Hope For A New Era]

Quinton Lucas met with DSCC and is seriously considering, Luetkemeyer is also considering.

Almost every Republican in Missouri's House delegation is considering a run. I believe Sam Graves is the only one who isn't.

This will be fun.

[Hope For A New Era]

I’m wondering if there are so many Republicans that a ‘conservative but not embarrassing’ moderate could sneak through the primary just running in St. Charles and the KC burbs.

Ironically, Sam Graves could fill that role very well, but he may be the only congressional R not running. Such is the absurdity of Missouri.

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/eyokley/status/1422524916960743424

Every statement released by a Republican is just cartoonish nowadays. The absurdity of it all.