KANSAS?!?
That only happens if Biden is up, like, 15 nationally.
Probably but it is worth noting that Kansas is actually fairly well educated compared to most other states (It ranks #17 in the country for bachelor's degree attainment - ahead of Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconson)
That's the key. Kansas has always been very middle-class and educated. Add in the increasing diversity in the western part of the state, and we may very well see some surprises! I don't think Biden is going to win it, but it's looking very much like we could see Trump's margin reduced to single digits.
A Biden victory in Kansas would be a 21-point swing, which would be absolutely insane. Would top Indiana 2008 for sure (given Kansas's voting history).
I think it’s time to consider that Missouri poll may have more merit than people thought, by the way.
I'm still a doubter, but it's an encouraging sign. I just keep going back to that Trump +2 poll in August 2016. Polls have been overestimating Democrats pretty consistently here since around 2015.
Will Biden get above 50% in Johnson county?
Looking pretty likely. He'll win it regardless, but I think the size of his win could become pretty impressive if this keeps up.