2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[Hope For A New Era]

MUH suburb TRENDING D FOREVER. Platte is incredibly small and barely swung D and Clay/St Charles swung R by a decent amount, along with Jefferson county MO where Trump got 65% of the vote, anyone educated in the Kansas city side will live in Johnson county Kansas.

You're living in 2005 still. The age of infinite growth in Johnson County is over. The area along the north side of MO-152 from I-29 eastward in Platte and Clay is the new supergrowth area.

Platte and Clay are much more educated than Jefferson. They are also located in metro area that is growing and performing relatively well economically. I have stated on this forum before that the biggest divide on which counties will trend D and which will trend R is similar to the dynamics of the Greater Detroit area. Counties that are diverse and prosperous like Oakland will trend D and counties like Macomb will trend R. Platte and Clay are good communities and much cheaper than Johnson county which is attractive to college-educated people so yes I believe it will trend D. I think them trending towards Trump in 2016 is likely due Obama overperformance and the country at large trending R.

Platte's affordability is diminishing, but Clay is still cheap. Lots of educated young people moving to both still.

Hmmm KC easier to crack than I expected.

Well I mean its only Clinton +15 and even the suburbs are R leaning.

Yes, suburban realignment is lagging here. It showed some strength in Johnson County KS in 2016, and probably will advance further there this year, but realignment on the Missouri side is just beginning. Still very R out there in the suburbs. Liberty in particular is pretty much the only thing holding Clay County back from flipping at this point.

At least we're not Wichita. No realignment at all out there.

You're right, reagente, District 1 is a VRA-protected district so it can't be split. But part of me wonders whether the MO GOP would really have the stones to try to split up Kansas City in your suggested way too. Even though the current District 5 is not technically a VRA-protected district, some civil rights attorneys might threaten a lawsuit anyway, calling District 5 a "minority-influence district." Despite the lack of precedent for that approach, such a threat of a lawsuit might intimidate the MO GOP, and that together with some reluctance of suburban KC Republican legislators to see their region split up might result in some inertia to using a map like yours.

I think it's likely that they try and then back down after criticism.

[Hope For A New Era]

I did a three way split of KC and preserved incumbent homes, all but two seats above 59% Trump, one seat is 54% Trump and the other seat is the STL VRA seat. Even Kander only won two seats on this map

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a7bad6f2-5ee8-45b8-883d-c06c29b84835

Cleaver's old seat is the most vulnerable R seat but it voted R for Governor in 2016, as well. Also Clinton did not break 40 in any of the 6 R seats.

That's nightmarish.

[Hope For A New Era]

[image snipped so the quote isn't yuge]
7-1, every Trump district at least 60% Trump.  Wagner is shored up and no incumbent Republican is drawn out of their district, though some will have a lot of new constituents.  I doubt Cleaver even runs with this map,  MO-5 is now Trump+27, an astounding 40 point move to the right.  Even if 2022 is a blue wave he would be a severe underdog. 

Thanks, I hate it.

Perfectly legal 8R-0D map. Every seat is at least Trump +14. Jason Kander lost every seat. I used water contiguity with no bridges for the purple district. I had the red district block all the bridges.

1: Trump +22, 2: Trump +22, 3: Trump +26, 4: Trump +18, 5: Trump +14, 6: Trump +18, 7: Trump +16, 8: Trump +22

[image snipped so the quote isn't yuge]

I'm pretty sure you would still need a VRA seat in St. Louis.

Even if this was legal, I am certain this map would produce successful action for non-partisan redistricting in Missouri. MO has this thing called ballot initiatives.

- Correct, there is a VRA seat.

- Already been done, in 2018. We love those here.

Republicans are trying to undo it, of course. As they do.


It's not hard to create progressive victories in statewide votes here. Just have to out-populist the other side. An Ojeda 2018 type would do very well in Missouri. It seems like Galloway is trying to be an extremely toned-down version of him, which is good.

[Hope For A New Era]

I tried my hand at a fair 8-district map of Missouri.

please stop abusing jackson county like this

[Hope For A New Era]

Looks like Cleaver's district will not be cleaved

[Hope For A New Era]

That 5 is such a ridiculous shape. I mean, I'm glad it's getting bluer, but no proper KC district should include Lone Jack but not Independence.

[Hope For A New Era]

That 5 is such a ridiculous shape. I mean, I'm glad it's getting bluer, but no proper KC district should include Lone Jack but not Independence.

I don't think the legislature would draw out Sam Graves...

Graves is from Tarkio all the way in the northwest corner of the state.

He currently lives in Independence, doesn't he?

I haven't heard anything about that.

[Hope For A New Era]

That 5 is such a ridiculous shape. I mean, I'm glad it's getting bluer, but no proper KC district should include Lone Jack but not Independence.

I don't think the legislature would draw out Sam Graves...

Graves is from Tarkio all the way in the northwest corner of the state.

He currently lives in Independence, doesn't he?

I haven't heard anything about that.

Huh. Wikipedia must have lied to me.

Where does it say that? I've never seen anything saying he lives anywhere but Tarkio

[Hope For A New Era]

We have our first change to the GOP draft plan:

In response to complaints from residents of Ray County (which was split between MO4 and MO6), Ray, Carroll, and Chariton are now entirely in MO-6, and MO-4 has taken a portion of Jackson County (which is now split in 3).

What portion of Jackson? Are there images or a bill anywhere?

That MO-05 reminds me of the MO-05 that existed in the 2000s, only it's sizably bigger. Goes to show how KC has bled population and fell in statewide population % over time.

Though Missouri had 9 congressional districts back then so you'd expect the district to be geographically larger now. Jackson County actually grew faster than the state over the last decade (after lagging behind it for many previous decades) unlike St Louis which still is bleeding population.

Kansas City has really had a dramatic recovery.

The causes aren't 100% clear, but after 30+ years of decline followed by stagnation, everything just took off between about 2012 and 2015 and the growth and construction is showing no sign of stopping anytime soon.

I was sad to leave in 2019 and start spending 3/4 of each year in Utah - it felt like I was leaving KC behind right as it was finally becoming "cool" again for the first time in decades.

[Hope For A New Era]

-Is it ok to put Hannibal in the 3rd? I had to do this to relieve excess population from the 6th.

yes
not ideal, but okay

-Is it worth it to try putting Cass in the 6th?

no
there's a strangely large cultural difference, actually