Florida 2022 Megathread

[iceman]

I am from Palm Beach county and I could tell DeSantis will may well be winning our county.

[iceman]

I am from Palm Beach county and I could tell DeSantis will may well be winning our county.

Are you serious? I can't quite believe that. That would be a big shocker.

either that or he would only lose by 1-2%. I could barely see campaign signs of Crist from Boca Raton to West Palm Beach.

[iceman]

As of 10/31 The GOP has a lead of already 137K ballots from early voting (mail-in and early in-person)
The DEM lead in Miami-Dade is only around 1,584.

[iceman]

Crist’s recent ads in Florida now proves that he is just a one trick pony. He is too much focused on abortion. I can’t wait for Nov 8 just to see him go down in flames.

[iceman]

Biden and Crist peddling a single issue in Miami-Dade county is a bad move. Miami-Dade hispanics care more about other issues than a woman’s uterus.

[iceman]

Biden and Crist peddling a single issue in Miami-Dade county is a bad move. Miami-Dade hispanics care more about other issues than a woman’s uterus.

Do you believe every lie Fox News tells you? They're not running on a single issue.

Get your head out of the sand.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1587535594401439744

do you live in florida? 🤪

all the ads that crist have been running here in Palm Beach county are all about abortion.

[iceman]

as per NHC and a few weather models that I’ve looked into, there’s a potential weather disturbance that’s going to breeze through south and central Florida on election day, I wonder how would that impact the races.

[iceman]

Palm Beach and Broward counties EV raw vote lead by DEMS is increasing slightly by day but it is way below the percentages than in 2018. Also in Osceola, which makes me doubt if DeSantis can also win Osceola but he has a lock probably now in Miami-Dade and well-positioned to win Hillsborough and Pinellas (a big blow to Crist!).

[iceman]

Palm Beach and Broward counties EV raw vote lead by DEMS is increasing slightly by day but it is way below the percentages than in 2018. Also in Osceola, which makes me doubt if DeSantis can also win Osceola but he has a lock probably now in Miami-Dade and well-positioned to win Hillsborough and Pinellas (a big blow to Crist!).

Is Palm Beach the least D County where Dems are still leading in the early vote? It seems like considering what's happenning statewide, Dems are holding up ok there so far, but obv doesn't really matter in the end.

I think it is Pinellas, they are still leading the EV by about 2000 votes. In comparison to 2018, the DEMS lead by about 1K votes going into election day so my gut instinct tells me there’s a chance Crist may win in by a very thin margin. Makes sense as it is his home county.

[iceman]

Despite the polls I think Beasley or DEMINGS wins and Tim Ryan that gives Ds 54/45/1 with McMullin Ryan isn't down by 10 and DEMINGS and BEASLEY are within 5 pts that's still MOE although being down 5 is different in a blue state than a red state due to more rural voters but we can still overcome that

Ryan isn't down by 10 the same EMERSON said Laxalt and Johnson were up 5 and Phillips Academy has CCM up 2 and MQK and CNN has Barnes down 2 if Evers is up by 2 and Clarity has Barnes up 2 then PA and WI are Lean D, likely 52/47/1 Senate floor, but Ceiling 54/45/1 with DEMINGS or Beasley winning

Watch out for SD, OK because the Gov races are close and Bengs can pull a Heidikamper and Mullin is up by 6 and Seltzer is gonna do a poll on IA Sen race can't wait it was 3 pts last time

DEMINGS is more likely to win now Beasley is 5 pts down like DEMINGS because Demings is a crime fighter Prosecutor

There are ticket splitting I thought it would be Crist/Rubio but it's always been DEMINGS/DeSantis

We will all see Tues

Do your last two brain cells ever hurt with the amount of strain you put on them?

no point really of taking his posts seriously 😆

don’t quote him, or else we can see his posts, he’s been on my ignore list.

[iceman]

GOP EV firewall is now 339,000 with 4.5 M votes counted. Miami-Dade margin is now 7,000 GOP and increasing. Hillsborough margin is slightly up today for DEMS after consecutive days of decreasing. Looks like there’s going to be around 5 Million early votes before going into election day.

I suspect around 4 million voters will head to polls on Tuesday and overwhelmingly R. Which gives total of around 9 Million votes statewide, which is on par or slightly higher than 2018.

[iceman]

I wonder if Democrats in Florida are now regretting not voting early in larger Numbers.

The Office of Governor Ron DeSantis issued a potential Tropical Storm Warning today for Southeastern FL namely Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties for Tuesday Nov 8

https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1589315536420499456

based on the weather models, it’s not going to hit until the 10th.

[iceman]

If 60% is cast as an EV then the actual number of votes on election night might not exceed 8M based on how the EV is going. That would be unimpressive since there were 8.2 Million cast in Florida in 2018.

[iceman]

If 60% is cast as an EV then the actual number of votes on election night might not exceed 8M based on how the EV is going. That would be unimpressive since there were 8.2 Million cast in Florida in 2018.

Right now cast Ballots in FL:
4,726,089

Total Ballots cast in FL 2018:
8,305,929

Current Turnout: 56,90 %

Tomorrow a lot of VBM Ballots will be tabulated.

where are you getting your numbers for early vote?


seems like the votes today are more DEM as the GOP lead decrease slightly and today is most likely only in-person as there are no VBM counted? DEMS resurge in FL?

[iceman]

If 60% is cast as an EV then the actual number of votes on election night might not exceed 8M based on how the EV is going. That would be unimpressive since there were 8.2 Million cast in Florida in 2018.

Right now cast Ballots in FL:
4,726,089

Total Ballots cast in FL 2018:
8,305,929

Current Turnout: 56,90 %

Tomorrow a lot of VBM Ballots will be tabulated.

where are you getting your numbers for early vote?


seems like the votes today are more DEM as the GOP lead decrease slightly and today is most likely only in-person as there are no VBM counted? DEMS resurge in FL?

Today is "SOULS TO THE POLLS" Day remember. The Final Sunday before an Election is traditionally a Democratic Day.

Check this Site out, it has all the Numbers:
https://www.freshtake.vote/home/turnout.php

It doesn’t show the actual number of ballots though, only the return rate and percentages the ballots received.

[iceman]

If 60% is cast as an EV then the actual number of votes on election night might not exceed 8M based on how the EV is going. That would be unimpressive since there were 8.2 Million cast in Florida in 2018.

Right now cast Ballots in FL:
4,726,089

Total Ballots cast in FL 2018:
8,305,929

Current Turnout: 56,90 %

Tomorrow a lot of VBM Ballots will be tabulated.

where are you getting your numbers for early vote?


seems like the votes today are more DEM as the GOP lead decrease slightly and today is most likely only in-person as there are no VBM counted? DEMS resurge in FL?

Today is "SOULS TO THE POLLS" Day remember. The Final Sunday before an Election is traditionally a Democratic Day.

Check this Site out, it has all the Numbers:
https://www.freshtake.vote/home/turnout.php

It doesn’t show the actual number of ballots though, only the return rate and percentages the ballots received.

Look into the upper left hand corner.

It says
(R) 2,071,787
(D) 1,746,886
(NPA) 946,965
R lead by 324,901

from a county by county breakdown perspective it doesnt.

[iceman]

Tropical Storm Nicole forecast to hit SE Florida on Thursday. What impacts would it have on the election?

Will the voters not show up on Eday and would rather do some preparations instead?

[iceman]

turnout is exceptionally high so far on the 3 counties that were affected by Hurricane Ian than in 2018. Huge improvements also for the GOP in Broward county compared to the last midterm. The only places where I see the DEMS is doing much better or at par with the DEMS in 2018 is on Pinellas, Hillsborough and Orange counties.

[iceman]

based on the early vote, Crist probably ekes out a win in his home county of Pinellas.


I actually dont care much for the other races only the Florida ones. If the GOP loses tomorrow, then they should by all means put the blame on Trump so that they can get rid of his hold on the party once in for all. I am actually crossing my fingers that the GOP may underperform tomorrow nationally so that Trump will not have a talking point or narrative that the midterm is all about him.

[iceman]

As is expected looks like EDay votes in Florida are heavily R based on the early returns today.

[iceman]

Orange is most likely Crist. Palm Beach DEM advantage is shrinking fast with the EDay votes coming strong for GOP.

[iceman]

If anyone is familiar, what time of the day does it usually has the most voters on Eday?

[iceman]

for some reason Orange and Lee counties are not updating their election day ballots. But for the rest of Florida, the GOP is killing it everywhere and it is essentially tied in Broward county!

[iceman]

Looking more like a >1M margin for DeSantis

[iceman]

Crist leading 56-42. Titanium D!