Australia 2022 Election

[Pulaski]

And Sharkie to hold Mayo presumably?

[Pulaski]

And also partially because of Albanese himself: a thoroughly weak individual whose spinelessness appears to have infected the rest of the party from the top on down.  Go on out there and win it, you losers!  The country is practically handing it to you.

Labor are clearly still traumatised from 2019, when ironically it was the Right-aligned Shorten who led them to adopt a broad, progressive platform, and they got whalloped. It's hard not conclude from 2019 that voters will punish you for being bold and specific on policy, particularly if you're anywhere vaguely near centre-left. 2019 shocked and disappointed me too, and it's hard to deny Albanese's strategy may prove more effective politically.

If the Coalition manage to cling to power tomorrow (and I still think it's very unlikely), my conclusion will be that there exist a big bloc of voters who will just look for any excuse to vote for a conservative party, no matter how trivial.

[Pulaski]

For what it's worth, Roy Morgan's last poll of the campaign has Labor ahead 53-47, and the Coalition's primary vote at 34 - "far too low to win the election."

[Pulaski]

Okay, I've had a good long look and here's my prediction:

Labor: 75 seats (+7)
Coalition: 69 seats (-7)
Crossbench: 7 seats (-) (1 Green, 1 CA, 1 KAP, 4 Independents)

Seats changing hands:

• Bass (Tas): Liberal -> Labor
• Boothby (SA): Liberal -> Labor
• Braddon (Tas): Liberal -> Labor
• Brisbane (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Chisholm (Vic): Liberal -> Labor
• Eden-Monaro (NSW): Labor -> Liberal
• Goldstein (Vic): Liberal -> Independent
• Hughes (NSW): UAP -> Liberal
• Hunter (NSW): Labor -> National
• Lingiari (NT): Labor -> Liberal
• Longman (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Pearce (WA): Liberal -> Labor
• Reid (NSW): Liberal -> Labor
• Ryan (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Swan (WA): Liberal -> Labor

So Labor just to miss out on a majority, but to take government.

[Pulaski]

I'm not going to even attempt a Senate prediction, it always ends up being an absolute mess and I'm sure this time round will be no different.

[Pulaski]

Okay, I've had a good long look and here's my prediction:

Labor: 75 seats (+6)
Coalition: 68 seats (-6)
Crossbench: 7 seats (-) (1 Green, 1 CA, 1 KAP, 4 Independents)

Seats changing hands:

• Bass (Tas): Liberal -> Labor
• Boothby (SA): Liberal -> Labor
• Brisbane (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Chisholm (Vic): Liberal -> Labor
• Eden-Monaro (NSW): Labor -> Liberal
• Goldstein (Vic): Liberal -> Independent
• Hughes (NSW): UAP -> Liberal
• Hunter (NSW): Labor -> National
• Lingiari (NT): Labor -> Liberal
• Longman (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Pearce (WA): Liberal -> Labor
• Reid (NSW): Liberal -> Labor
• Ryan (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Swan (WA): Liberal -> Labor

So Labor just to miss out on a majority, but to take government.

This looks about right to me - there are a few other seats that could be close, including Gilmore and Corangamite, but it could also be bluffing.

The candidates spent the day a little differently than was foreshadowed by the press this morning, incidentally.  Morrison spending all day in WA is very interesting indeed.  If they think that they could lose Hasluck, then the election may not end up being so close.

Gilmore in particular was one I had flipping earlier on in the campaign, but news and polling that I've seen since have all leant Labor's way. I'll be relieved if it doesn't flip; Constance has been a strong performer at the state level and is someone I could easily see leading the federal Liberals in the future. Maybe he missed a trick not going for Eden-Monaro.

I've heard that it's close in both Corangamite and McEwen, but I ended up leaving them on Labor's side just because they hold them already and the general sense seems to be they're strongest in Victoria. I could have maybe thrown them Higgins too, but the narrowing has led me to be a bit conservative. I was hopeful for Kooyong to go teal, but the news that Ryan is planning a legal challenge after the election has got me thinking that her polling suggests she'll lose.

I'm certainly not nearly as bullish on the independents as morgie is; unfortunately the polling just isn't quite there for a lot of them. It's a real shame that more voters don't look to seats that do pick independents or third parties; the MPs tend to hold them and build on their majorities because they end up being such effective representatives. Even Katter, who's an absolute whackjob, fits this rule; love him or loathe him, he obviously represents how quite a lot of his constituents feel.

[Pulaski]

What's the likelihood that Eric Abetz and George Christensen will be out at this election?
What changes could we see in the Senate more generally?

Abetz has got a slim chance, Christensen none. The stuff I've read has leant towards predicting the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate, but honestly nearly anything could happen.

[Pulaski]

Just voted in soggy Sydney Park. A 45 minute wait in the queue. Seems like the booth might have been suffering covid-related staff shortages.

Was torn on which way to vote for the first time. As a leftist my policy has always been to vote for the most left-wing option, which in my previous electorates (Cook & Hughes) has made me a Greens voter every time. This time in Sydney there were a few options, including Plibersek who's probably one of the most progressive voices in the Labor Party.

Ultimately I went:

1. Socialist Alliance
2. Greens
3. Labor
4. Liberal
5. Palmer Vanity Project
6. Australian Citizens Party
7. One Nation

[Pulaski]

So apparently the Liberals think the 2PP is 53-47 their way.....

That'd be a polling error so large it'd eclipse 2019 by some margin.

[Pulaski]

An absolute mess.
Obviously my predictions were well out along with everyone else’s. I likely won’t be on for the rest of the night as I’m already three sheets. Hoping against hope for a Labor minority government.

[Pulaski]

I’m drunk.
But Labor will form next government

[Pulaski]

If nothing else, this election has sent a resounding verdict to the major parties on climate change. I'm hopeful that an Albanese Labor government will join the international community in trying to drastically curb carbon emissions.

I certainly got individual seats very wrong, and underestimated the teal independents, but 75 seats for Labor looks very close to how things will end up. I'll take that.

[Pulaski]

So are the "teals" basically a reincarnation of the old Australian Democrats?

It's not a bad comparison to make at all. Particularly as the Democrats were also founded by a disaffected "small-l" liberal.

But I think the teals will also share a lot of common ground with the Greens - the Greens gains in Queensland seem to have come via the same type of voters that went teal in NSW and Victoria.

[Pulaski]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

[Pulaski]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

If Labor doesn't take the majority, is there any chance they'd prefer a coalition with left-leaning teal members over the Greens?

Was discussing this with a mate last night. He thinks it’s a real possibility if Labor want to avoid the “Labor-Green” sledges. I think they’ll happen anyway, but also that many of the teals might want to avoid being accused of keeping Labor in power if they can at all help it, given that most of them come from formerly Liberal seats.

Of course the other option for Labor if they reach 75 seats is relying solely on Andrew Wilkie, who’s more of a straight-up progressive rather than a teal.

[Pulaski]

Nats would need a big effort to leapfrog Labor in Richmond, they’re nearly 4000 votes behind with over half the ballots counted and there’s been a big swing against them so far.

I also doubt Libs get out of third in Macnamara even with a decent postal vote and I expect ABC to call that seat on Monday or Tuesday.

It does look like Brisbane may be closer than I first thought this morning but I’ll keep that as a Greens gain for the moment.

[Pulaski]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

If Labor doesn't take the majority, is there any chance they'd prefer a coalition with left-leaning teal members over the Greens?

Was discussing this with a mate last night. He thinks it’s a real possibility if Labor want to avoid the “Labor-Green” sledges. I think they’ll happen anyway, but also that many of the teals might want to avoid being accused of keeping Labor in power if they can at all help it, given that most of them come from formerly Liberal seats.

Of course the other option for Labor if they reach 75 seats is relying solely on Andrew Wilkie, who’s more of a straight-up progressive rather than a teal.

What could also help Labor, in any event, is if they could end up getting a teal indy to be named the Speaker of the House.

I can't really see this happening. Of the 10 independents, 9 will be in either their first or second term, meaning they aren't very experienced in the rules and standing orders. Labor will also remember the Slipper debacle well and will hardly be keen to suffer any repeat. Rob Mitchell seems to be the next cab off the rank on Labor's side and I expect he'll be elected Speaker when Parliament comes back.

[Pulaski]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

If Labor doesn't take the majority, is there any chance they'd prefer a coalition with left-leaning teal members over the Greens?

Was discussing this with a mate last night. He thinks it’s a real possibility if Labor want to avoid the “Labor-Green” sledges. I think they’ll happen anyway, but also that many of the teals might want to avoid being accused of keeping Labor in power if they can at all help it, given that most of them come from formerly Liberal seats.

Of course the other option for Labor if they reach 75 seats is relying solely on Andrew Wilkie, who’s more of a straight-up progressive rather than a teal.

What could also help Labor, in any event, is if they could end up getting a teal indy to be named the Speaker of the House.

I can't really see this happening. Of the 10 independents, 9 will be in either their first or second term, meaning they aren't very experienced in the rules and standing orders. Labor will also remember the Slipper debacle well and will hardly be keen to suffer any repeat. Rob Mitchell seems to be the next cab off the rank on Labor's side and I expect he'll be elected Speaker when Parliament comes back.

If Labor winds up on exactly 76 seats, wouldn't there be an issue about their having a majority on the floor? Or is that not typically taken into consideration even though it recently has been in other Westminster systems like, say, BC in 2017?

The Speaker can cast a tiebreaking vote.

[Pulaski]

ABC have called Lingiari for Labor.

Have Macnamara, Richmond and Bennelong as "likely Labor" for now.

If Labor take all of those plus Lyons then they have 76.

Constance has pulled ahead in Gilmore and I'm pretty comfortable that he'll win it from here.

I'm definitely pulling back Brisbane as that's getting closer and closer for who finishes 2nd.

2PP a smidge over 52-48 Labor. When most of the final polls had 53-47, gotta say they've been pretty much on the money.

[Pulaski]

In case anyone else wanted something to smile about:

Pauline Hanson has lost her Senate seat to the Greens.

Don't get your hopes up too quickly. Apparently she's still in with a decent shout.

[Pulaski]

ABC's called Bennelong for Labor and Menzies and Moore for the Libs.

Bit surprised that Bass and Cowper are still only "likely" Coalition.

I can understand because of preferences they don't want to call Macnamara or Richmond yet, but they have them as "likely" Labor and given that they're winning in primary votes I can't see them falling into 3rd from this stage so I'm comfortable calling them both for Labor.

Labor: 75 (73 called, plus Macnamara and Richmond)
Coalition: 56 (54 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 3
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10

Still in doubt: 5

• Brisbane: Called this one too early. Labor are in 3rd but only 200 votes behind the Greens in 2nd. Either way the Coalition have obviously lost this seat
• Deakin: Labor ahead, but by just 59 votes now and the Liberal's looking better at every update.
• Gilmore: Constance is only about 200 votes ahead but my hunch is that he'll win it from here.
• Lyons: Labor ahead and looking a little healthier.
• Sturt: Liberal has pulled ahead by nearly 1000 votes and I expect this one will be called soon.

So the smart money is probably on Labor scraping a majority at this stage, given that Lyons would get them there and they still stand a decent chance in both Brisbane and Deakin.

[Pulaski]

ABC's called Bennelong for Labor and Menzies and Moore for the Libs.

Bit surprised that Bass and Cowper are still only "likely" Coalition.

I can understand because of preferences they don't want to call Macnamara or Richmond yet, but they have them as "likely" Labor and given that they're winning in primary votes I can't see them falling into 3rd from this stage so I'm comfortable calling them both for Labor.

Labor: 75 (73 called, plus Macnamara and Richmond)
Coalition: 56 (54 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 3
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10

Still in doubt: 5

• Brisbane: Called this one too early. Labor are in 3rd but only 200 votes behind the Greens in 2nd. Either way the Coalition have obviously lost this seat
• Deakin: Labor ahead, but by just 59 votes now and the Liberal's looking better at every update.
• Gilmore: Constance is only about 200 votes ahead but my hunch is that he'll win it from here.
• Lyons: Labor ahead and looking a little healthier.
• Sturt: Liberal has pulled ahead by nearly 1000 votes and I expect this one will be called soon.

So the smart money is probably on Labor scraping a majority at this stage, given that Lyons would get them there and they still stand a decent chance in both Brisbane and Deakin.

I think you might have the Gilmore/Deakin thing the wrong way around. Sukkar's gains on postals have been so extreme that it's getting hard for Labor. Maybe future postals could slow the trend - certainly these seem very right-wing - but I think I'd rather be the Liberals than Labor.

Constance's lead is an illusion - one booth had the 2PP vote the wrong way around. So I think Labor might still be ahead there. The postal count is already quite advanced too so any further gains on postals might not be forthcoming. I wouldn't write Constance off at all but I think that's a toss-up.

Lyons also has a probable 2PP discrepancy so when that's corrected that should be beyond doubt for Labor.

Macnamara is interesting as the Liberals do gain quite a lot on postal votes there thanks to the conservative Jewish population. I think Burns's lead over the Liberals is big enough that it probably won't be run down (especially as he seems to be doing well on early postals) but there remains a world where the votes are close enough that preferences knock Burns to third. But I'd still prefer to be Labor there.

You're probably right about Deakin - I've seen an update that has Sukkar in the lead now. Presume he'll be in line for a promotion in Opposition.

Not prepared to call Gilmore yet by any means, just something tells me Constance is going to nab it.

I don't doubt the Libs will gain in Macnamara, but I can't see them and the Greens overtaking Labor, which is what'd need to happen for Burns to lose.

Some sources already have Lyons for Labor, which is encouraging. Some also still have Grey and Ryan as too close to call, which is bizarre?

[Pulaski]

Does Australia always take so long to count votes? It's been two days since election night and the % counted has barely budged, and there are still 9 seats uncalled. I don't remember that being the case in 2016 or 2019.

Huge numbers of postal votes (still coming in) plus staffing problems due to covid.

[Pulaski]

I just noticed something kind of remarkable. With Bennelong going to Labor, the Coalition has lost the seat of every former Prime Minister from Menzies to Turnbull, save McMahon (whose seat of Lowe was abolished) and Fraser. They lost the seat of Tony Abbott (Warringah) in 2019, and they just lost the seats of Robert Menzies (Kooyong), Harold Holt (Higgins), John Gorton (also Higgins), John Howard (Bennelong) and Malcolm Turnbull (Wentworth).

We’ll be waiting for some time for Cook to flip unfortunately.

[Pulaski]

Australia should got nuclear. We've got the resources. We have a bit of the desert that has already been nuked, dump the waste there. This will get us off the carbon intensive power the Teals and Greens are so worried about. The fact that they consider a Nuclear option as off the table proves to me that they aren't serious about combating climate change. Without nuclear as an option the cost of electricity will bite the Teal's, Labor, and Greens in the posterior with the electorate long term. This is actually a great opportunity for the Coalition to stand for something that will benefit everyone.

Nuclear power is staggeringly expensive and time-consuming to get off the ground and pretty much every expert in the industry agrees it makes no commercial sense for Australia to get into the game at this point. Renewable projects with storage options are already much cheaper and quicker to get online and by 2040, which is about the earliest we could get even a SMR online (by which time we're already supposed to be heading towards net zero), that difference will only be greater.

I also like how you invoke Maralingla/Emu Field casually, as if there wasn't massive contamination and costly cleanup efforts, compensation claims and ongoing concerns. We already have a 10 year-old furphy over where to store the two swimming pools' worth of waste from ANSTO - largely because every proposed area experiences furious opposition from local towns and indigenous communities. I'm not usually a NIMBY lover, but I can't say I'd be wild about living next to a toxic nuclear waste dump.

This is to say nothing of the logistical nightmare of transporting large quantities of waste into the desert, an endeavour that local infrastructure is hardly set up for right now.