Alberta election 2023

[If my soul was made of stone]

In neighboring Saskatchewan, the Saskatchewan Party vote lines up pretty closely with CPC vote.  But it's a much more "natural" small-c conservative demographic.  Calgary and Edmonton vote rather conservatively at the federal level largely for regional grievance reasons.  I suspect if they were US states, Alberta would be a purple state and Sask a red state.  It's quite telling that it's very difficult to see an NDP path to victory in Saskatchewan.

The United States being a country famously lacking in regional resentment and conservative urban areas, of course. Tulsa? Never heard of her.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Pales in comparison to Canada though.  US voting is much more demographically-driven.

US didn't have a single city as large as Calgary or Edmonton vote GOP.  Now true Edmonton Tories federally won more on splits as more voted left than right but in Calgary majority voted Tory federally.  In 2016, Trump did win Maricopa and Duval counties although Phoenix and Jacksonville I believe went for Hillary Clinton, latter just barely.  At same time US cities don't tend to extend all the way out to countryside and big reason Tulsa and Oklahoma City were competitive for GOP is like Calgary & Edmonton extend right out to countryside unlike most US cities.  Areas with urban types densites vote Democrat while those more suburban in nature go GOP.  Edmonton is like that, but in Calgary, Tories even win in central cores.  London is only other place in Anglosphere where that happens and even that probably changes next election.  London as a whole votes Labour, but the very central parts which are quite rich still vote Conservative.

I'm comparing the Canadian cities to the American built-up areas as a whole, not just the cities. Tulsa proper is majority-minority and narrowly voted for Biden, but its built-up area and even Tulsa itself stretches into three or four more surrounding counties. Oklahoma City proper narrowly voted for Trump, and even just the portion in Oklahoma County's Biden margin was underwhelming for an urban area of that size. Both cities are often compared to Calgary culturally and economically, and not without reason.

[If my soul was made of stone]

I think like seeing in UK, even for those on right, if you push things too far they can go over to other side.  Its not like US where you can go as far right as you want and still win a large chunk of the population.

Smith and Truss are each a very particular type of ideologue with a base of and mandate from only party insiders and activists. American right-wing cranks at least have a wider base of primary voters from either open primaries or closed primaries with much lower barriers of entry before they're hoisted on a broader electorate.

If Paul Ryan had ever run for President, or taken over the helm after a Romney 2012 victory under strange circumstances, I'm sure we'd see something more similar happening here.

[If my soul was made of stone]

It seems like 2019 was sort of a primal scream on the part of the right in Alberta.

Andrew Scheer levels of Designated Conservative Region Resentment Drivel Standard Bearer Candidate